Carlsen and the quest for 2900

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PDubya

It's been a long time since this post was updated. Carlsen is now down at a relatively lowly 2832, from his peak high of 2889.2. This drop of some 57 ratings points has also been seen by Caruana and Aronian in recent years, highlighting the difficulty in maintaining such high ratings, when draws are so common at elite GM level. 

While Kramnik has remained stable, and Caruana has become a stable low 2800 player we now have So and Mamedyarov nipping at Carlsen's heels. Shak may just be on a bender in form and could sink back down again, though who knows. It's a shame he won't be at Norway instead of Giri. 
So is most likely to challenge Carlsen for #1 and got very close recently. It will be interesting to see how the ratings fight goes this year. Norway Chess, starting early next month will make the situation clearer.

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macer75
PDubya wrote:

It's been a long time since this post was updated. Carlsen is now down at a relatively lowly 2832, from his peak high of 2889.2. This drop of some 57 ratings points has also been seen by Caruana and Aronian in recent years, highlighting the difficulty in maintaining such high ratings, when draws are so common at elite GM level. 

While Kramnik has remained stable, and Caruana has become a stable low 2800 player we now have So and Mamedyarov nipping at Carlsen's heels. Shak may just be on a bender in form and could sink back down again, though who knows. It's a shame he won't be at Norway instead of Giri. 
So is most likely to challenge Carlsen for #1 and got very close recently. It will be interesting to see how the ratings fight goes this year. Norway Chess, starting early next month will make the situation clearer.

 

Mamedyarov will absolutely sink back down again, no question. We've seen it before with every player at that level who gains a large number of rating points in a very short period of time. The gain simply cannot be reflective of a proportional increase in actual ability.

Strangemover

StupidGM in another thread you speculated that a maximum achievable Elo rating might be around 5000. Would this not mean that Stockfish, whilst obviously superior to any human player, does not in fact see the game correctly? Only around 7/10 towards perfection?

DiogenesDue
Strangemover wrote:

StupidGM in another thread you speculated that a maximum achievable Elo rating might be around 5000. Would this not mean that Stockfish, whilst obviously superior to any human player, does not in fact see the game correctly? Only around 7/10 towards perfection?

StupidGM is not really a good source in this case wink.png.  

The maximum achievable Elo rating is always relative to the rest of the pool.  5000 is not possible, and won't be for any foreseeable future.  The current "maximum" theoretical performance rating is under 4000, in fact.

Elo ratings do not measure anything at all about chess perfection, only a statistical probability of beating others in the ratings pool.

Senior-Lazarus_Long

True.

7/10 towards perfection? Since we don't know what perfection is,we don't know how close we may be to it.

s7080

Fabiano Caruana has reached 2900 in the London Classic Super Six he went to in 2014.

 

DiogenesDue
macer75 wrote:
 

Mamedyarov will absolutely sink back down again, no question. We've seen it before with every player at that level who gains a large number of rating points in a very short period of time. The gain simply cannot be reflective of a proportional increase in actual ability.

Never say never.

MSC157

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Ratings are the closest ever in a WC Match, unfortunately impossible for Carlsen to go below 2800 or above 2870! Join 150+ other members on predicting the results and some other facts of the match wink.png Link here:

https://goo.gl/forms/js7v8rMfiDgXQUw03

IpswichMatt

Magnus must have done well there - there's pictures of him in the press conference actually smiling

https://shamkirchess.com/

goommba88

I t doesnt mean anything/ sometime this year he will have a bad tournament ( not even bad just plus 1) and he will lose back 20 points. plus even if some miracle happens, it doesnt matter because of ratings in-flation

later dudes

goommba88

MonsieurFahrenheit

The quest continues....

DiogenesDue
MonsieurFahrenheit wrote:

The quest continues....

Carlsen is really no closer than before.  More importantly, the field around him at 2800+ has shrunk to just Caruana, where there were a half dozen players over 2800 not that long ago.

Anomyous_person

Carlsen will reach 2900 im sure

DiogenesDue
Anomyous_person wrote:

Carlsen will reach 2900 im sure

Lol, it's been 8 years now since this thread started...and Carlsen is at 2864  with two other players between 2800-2810, and he's saying he will retire soon.  His chances of reaching 2900 are somewhere between slim and none without more competition well over 2800 with him.

goommba88

If anything his rating has already peaked/ and will slowly decline a little in the next 5 years

yevrowl

This is possible in case of victory in the category XXIII or XXIIII tournament, and over all rivals at once.

LeoTSimoes26

Go Go magnus