should be about his wins, first places, and games not elo points...right now it is very hard to beat him, and this is the most important thing.
one my club mate is running for rating, he draws, he escape tournaments when his elo performance gets in positive, he avoid matches where he can not advance his elo, he passed 2000 finally, I think he will catch even MC with this strategy mathematically, but he'll newer win on club's blitz, but who cares....!
If you look at Carlsen's results over the last years, you will see that 75% is possible. For exemple, he was at 75% from the second half of the Grand Slam in 2012 to the first half of the Candidates in 2013 when he broke Kasparov rating record :
5 games in the second half of the GS : +3 -0 =2
8 games in the London Classic : +4 -0 =4
13 games in Tata Steel : +7 -0 =6
first 7 games in the candidates : +3 -0 =4
(he then had two draws against Kramnik and Aronian, and lost against Ivanchuk)
Total : 33 games, +17 =16, 75.8%
If he renews his performance, he will reach 2900.
But then the opposition wasn't only top players but included Jones, McShane, Polgar, Vallejo, Hou, l'Ami, Sokolov, van Wely, Harikrishna etc. I don't know what the average rating was but certainly well below 2770. Still 75% is of course very impressive, but I don't think he can keep scoring such results for longer periods against top players.
Even though Carlsen is rather close with 2882.6 I don't think he will reach 2900. Just a game like today, when he is black against Anand, will cost him 1.4 point if he draws. And he will be quite happy to draw, I think. Black against top players is never easy even for Carlsen, the only black game he played this far here was the one against Nakamura, and he won't win from such positions many times more.
pduby, you better stop this negative commenting, you have already been reported
no one can even inbox you or write on your wall cward
no one can even inbox you or write on your wall cward
I'm not the one abusing other players, Speedy. Learn some manners.
Carlsen's rating is now 2881.
According to http://www.kosteniuk.com/EloCalc/elo.php
he would need to beat a 2600 player 12 times in a row!
Even 11.5 / 12 wouldn't be enough.
Against 2700, he'd need 8 in a row, at least 6/8 to not lose ratings points.
The Gashimov Memorial starts in 12 days, with Carlsen potentially looking to break through the 2900 barrier.
According to http://www.kosteniuk.com/EloCalc/elo.php
with his opponents being:
| Caruana | 2783 |
| Nakamura | 2772 |
| Karjakin | 2772 |
| Mamedyarov | 2760 |
| Radjabov | 2713 |
at an ELO average of 2760, and with his current offical rating of 2881 (2882.3) Live, Carlsen will need to score 6.64 to maintain his rating.
Broken down, we can expect him to finish with the following ratings based on the following results:
| 5 | 2865 |
| 5.5 | 2870 |
| 6 | 2875 |
| 6.5 | 2880 |
| 7 | 2885 |
| 7.5 | 2890 |
| 8 | 2895 |
| 8.5 | 2900 |
| 9 | 2905 |
| 9.5 | 2910 |
| 10 | 2915 |
It seems very unlikely he will reach 2900 in this tournament. He'd need to produce a performance of 8.5/10, which would be an ELO tournament performance well in excess of 3000.
This could well be a tough tournament. Karjakin and Mamedyarov are coming off strong Candidates performances, while Caruana and Nakamura will be chomping at the bit, after missing out. Radjabov is an unknown quantity, as his rating has dropped a lot in the past year, but he may now be playing closer to his old 2793 strength.
Predictions anyone?
feels good to see the greatest chess player of all time finally reach the 2900 barrier, Carlsen is truly a once in a lifetime player.
the gushimov tournament should be interesting, do you know who is commentating?
the gushimov tournament should be interesting, do you know who is commentating?
Not sure who is commentating. I always follow the action on chessbomb.com
People there usually post links to the relavant sites. I'm sure chess.com will also offer some links...
8.5 seems impsiible, but 7 is possible, or even likely !
My guess is that Carlsen will score a +2 result in Azerbaijan. He hasn't lost in a long time so maybe it's time for that, against Caruana or Mamedyarov or maybe finally Nakamura.
It's four years since Carlsen scored a worse result than +2. In his latest events he has scored +3, but two of those were very short and the tournaments with the highest average rating ever when they were held. +3 in six games in Sinquefield Cup and +3 in five games in Zurich Classical. And then of course also +3 in the title match.
Closed round robin tournament are usually won with a score between 60% and 70%, 60% being rather low, and 70% rather high : on average it is 65%
However Carlsen has often achieve scores higher than 70%
Here are some realistic scores for Carlsen and the Tournament Performance Rating that this would equate to.
http://englishchess.org.uk/Juniors/play-for-england/tournament-performance-calculator/
Statistically, his most likely result is +1.5
I would like to see a system where players who achieve a TPRs above a certain level, and achieve that rating gain a norm for that rating, e.g. a 2700 norm, a 2800 norm, and now a 2900 norm.
Does anyone have a list of players' best TPRs? That would be an interesting list to see.
Slightly off-topic... did anyone else catch Ivanchuk's 3059 performance rating at the 14-round Latvian Railway Open?
Slightly off-topic... did anyone else catch Ivanchuk's 3059 performance rating at the 14-round Latvian Railway Open?
It was a rapid performance. Pretty impressive, but much less (I think) than a 3000 performance in slow play. Carlsen had 3026 in Zurich this year.
Slightly off-topic... did anyone else catch Ivanchuk's 3059 performance rating at the 14-round Latvian Railway Open?
Ivanchuk's blitz rating should rise a lot after this performance. It's not yet reflected in his offical blitz rating, but should be reflected in May:
http://ratings.fide.com/id.phtml?event=14100010
Grischuk is closing in on 2800 thanks to 3 wins in a row in the Russian League.
Anand should probably be thankful he wasn't in the Candidates!
http://www.2700chess.com/glass.php?statistic=9
He's now 3rd on the live ratings at 2788.6, up 11.6 points.
If you look at Carlsen's results over the last years, you will see that 75% is possible. For exemple, he was at 75% from the second half of the Grand Slam in 2012 to the first half of the Candidates in 2013 when he broke Kasparov rating record :
5 games in the second half of the GS : +3 -0 =2
8 games in the London Classic : +4 -0 =4
13 games in Tata Steel : +7 -0 =6
first 7 games in the candidates : +3 -0 =4
(he then had two draws against Kramnik and Aronian, and lost against Ivanchuk)
Total : 33 games, +17 =16, 75.8%
If he renews his performance, he will reach 2900.