Carlsen and the quest for 2900

3000+ performances then, jeepers.

"Carlsen had a 3000 performance in Pearl Spring, a 2994 at London 2012"

Yes, but in the five years since Pearl Spring 2009 Zurich this year is the only event where he reached a 3000 performance (over five games, and in one of them he won from a totally lost position in a way he won't repeat many times), London 2012 was very close to 3000 though, that's true.

However, I don't think Carlsen will pass 2900, he has gotten into the same position as Fischer in 1972, where he lost rating points in spite of beating Spassky clearly. The others are just too far behind. A decade or two from now I think Carlsen still will be the only player to have passed Kasparov's 2851.

It seems as if the best performance in Anand's long career is 2887.

the problem isnt Carlson reaching 3000, it's the amount of people with high ratings that will lose to Carlson.

there isnt much high rated players for Carlson to dominate which makes it hard for him to increase rating. i feel bad for Carlson, he is just too good for this generation

Caruana, Karjakin and Nakamura are all flirting with a 2800 ratings. In a couple of years they might all be above this. Hopefully we'll see some excellent, fighting chess this week!

Exactly, and why should be play sub 2700 players regularly? Top level football teams like Manchester Utd and Real Madrid rarely play lower league teams. Tiger Woods focuses mainly on events with only the best players competing.

I think Carlsen is likely to stay focused on Chess for at least the next 7 years. I'm sure in that time someone else will come along with the same appetite and tenacity to challenge him.

It's rare to see Carlsen play something else than super-GM tournaments nowadays, I think it has only happened once after the Olympiad 2010, and that was the one game he played in the Norwegian League this year.

I can't see how selecting a few tournaments over a number of years where he achieved a rating that he would have to achieve every single tournament for a large number of years is evidence. Not only that, but in most of them his performance was no good enough anyway. If he had a 3010 performance for the rest of his career he probably wouldn't reach it.

     I think for Carlsen to reach 2900 is very possible in a year or two if he remains actively playing in strong tournaments rated by FIDE.

Interesting discussion of Tournament Rating Performances here: http://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1x558e/i_think_carlsens_performance_rating_at_zurich_was/

Carlsen's first game in the Gashimov Memorial is against Mamedyarov, and a win gives him 3.4, a draw loses him 1.6 and a loss costs him 6.6 points. On the live rating list that means that he will have 2885.7, 2880.7 or 2875.7 points after the first round.

You think the 'real' world understands chess, much less chess ratings?

Carlsen moves closer to 2900 with a first up win against Mamedyarov. He's now less than 15 points from 2900. He certainly appears in good form... Can he do it in this tournament?

Not likely. +5(7.5/10) which is impressive will give him something around 2890

edit: OK, there are some very little chances -

+5(7.5/10) - 2891.1

+6(8.0/10) - 2896.1

+7(8,5/10) - 2901.1

+8(9.0/10) - 2906.1

When Fischer reached 2785 in 1973, there were exactly 0 players within 100 points of him. In fact he was 120 points ahead of second Spassky, and 200 points ahead of 19th Bronstein. 
Compared to today's rating, this would put Carlsen around 2930.
For now, 3000 is impossible. In ten years it might be. Carlsen will be at his peak at this time. 

His live rating is 2885.6 after beating Mamedyarov!

2889.2, rapidly approaching 2900....

Where is this guy´s limit? Carlsen vs Nakamura:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nxCLsLFgeg

Gap between #1 and #2 = 74.4 Elo

Gap between #1 and #10 = 120.9 Elo

Gap between #1 and #100 = 238.2 Elo

The gap between Carlsen and an entry level GM is now almost 400, which is significant because "each 400 rating points of advantage over the opponent, the chance of winning is magnified ten times in comparison to the opponent's chance of winning".

Therefore, a 2500 GM should expect to score only 1/10 against Carlsen, which is what a 2100 would expect to score against a 2500 GM.

I was also thinking if Carlsen would get near Tal´s record of undefeated games in a row, but then I remembered that Tal used to play not only with GMs, but also with (as he called them) Masters, Candidates Masters and even First Category Players.

You are not going to see players in the Top 10 playing Class A players (maybe only for an occasional Open or their own National Championships).

Carlsen's rating dropped 1.5 points after his 3rd round draw with Karjakin. For the first 30 moves it looked as if Carlsen was headed for another victory, but Karjakin managed to extricate himself from severe time trouble, and even the match.

Here's how Carlsen's live rating has fluctuated so far in this tournament: