He might be a little overconfident when playing "weak" GM rated around 2730.
Carlsen vs Top 10
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And look at the DATES of the top few. He has winning records against every one of the top players since he turned 18.
I thought it's even against Kramnik after the last game, because after the London 2012, Kramnik say he has "+1 against both, Kasparov and Carlsen".
MSC157 wrote:
I thought it's even against Kramnik after the last game, because after the London 2012, Kramnik say he has "+1 against both, Kasparov and Carlsen".
It's even over their whole careers, but not since Carlsen turned 18 (he lost his first game to Kramnik when he was 16 and not yet 2700).
AngeloPardi wrote:
He might be a little overconfident when playing "weak" GM rated around 2730.
Yes, and at some occasions he tries to be a bit too "creative" instead of going for the draw when there just isn't more in the position. It almost backfired also against Gelfand recently, where he declined the repetition draw to play for his fifth win in a row against him, but just got a worse position that wasn't all that easy to defend. Something similar happened against Ivanchuk in the Candidates, but at the same time he probably wins more games than he loses with this approach anyway.
Yeah, its only fair to look at his results since he turned 18. When be was a little baby in diapers all the worlds elite could pile up stats on him.
And Kramnik too. He has a winning record vs Kramnik since he became an adult. And Anand. And Aronian. And........
Everyone else.
He has never beaten me though. So I don't rate him that much.
Overall however he has a minus record against Anand I don't know about other players but I think It works for all of them.
He doesnt seem to have a rival in the near future like Kasparov had Karpov.
His biggest competitors ,Anand and Kramnik are showing signs of decline.He has a plus score against Aronian too.Caruana doesnt seem to be special but is a very hardworking lad.Who else is there?
Don't forget Karjakin. He's a child prodigy like Carlsen. I believe he is the next challenger to the WCC. He is currently No. 7 at 2782.
Carlsen is comfortable against other youngsters though, he has more trouble with the older guys.
I thought Kramink was #2, and Aronian #3?
If there will be a player in the future to challange Magnus, that player would have to be mentally really powerful (like Kasparov), because Carlsen is as tough as nails now and will only get better in that respect with experience.
from now on when people say carlsen suck against the top guys i will just post a link to your thread:)
@fabelhaft: thanks for doing this research! It puts at least one falsity of the Carlsen haters to rest.
Now they'll just have to content themselves to whining about "cheap endgame tricks" and psychological subterfuge.
Time for an update, going by the upcoming January rating list Carlsen's scores are:
vs #2 Aronian 3-0 after Linares 2009 (career score 8-4)
vs #3 Nakamura 7-0
vs #4 Kramnik 2-0 after Bilbao 2010 (career score 4-4)
vs #5 Topalov 5-0 after Bilbao 2008 (career score 8-3)
vs #6 Caruana lost last decisive game (career score 2-2)
vs #7 Grischuk 2-0
vs #8 Gelfand 4-0 after Tal Memorial 2006 (career score 4-1)
vs #9 Anand 5-0 after London 2010 (career score 6-6)
vs #10 Karjakin 2-0 after Wijk 2012 (career score 3-1)
During the last three years Carlsen scored 26-3 against the current top ten: 3-0 vs Aronian, 6-0 vs Nakamura, 2-0 vs Kramnik, 1-0 vs Topalov, 2-2 vs Caruana, 1-0 vs Grischuk, 4-0 vs Gelfand, 5-0 vs Anand, 2-1 vs Karjakin. Against the four latest title match participants Carlsen has 12-0 in wins the last three years.
Wow
It has been said now and then that Carlsen’s lead on the rating list mainly is caused by his beating the weakest opponents and tailenders, while he supposedly is having bad stats against the top players. But looking at Carlsen’s results against the top 10, he has with one exception won at least both the latest games that weren’t draws against all of them:
vs #2 Aronian 2-0 after Linares 2009
vs #3 Kramnik 2-0 after Bilbao 2010
vs #4 Anand 2-0 after London 2010
vs #5 Nakamura 7-0
vs #6 Topalov 5-0 after Bilbao 2008
vs #7 Karjakin 2-0 after Wijk 2012
vs #8 Grischuk 2-0
vs #9 Caruana lost last game
vs #10 Morozevich 3-0
Going by the live rating list instead would mean removing Morozevich and including:
vs Gelfand 4-0 after Tal Memorial 2006
There’s also Radjabov, who was top ten for years, until the latest lists:
vs Radjabov 6-0 after Linares 2008
Stats like these against the top players must be quite unusual.
As for beating tailenders, which is rather natural for all tournament winners, one could just as well look at some of the few tournaments Carlsen hasn’t won lately. Karjakin won Stavanger but was beaten by Carlsen, Wang Hao won Biel last year but was beaten by Carlsen in both their games. Aronian won Wijk 2012 but lost against Carlsen, and it was the same thing with Nakamura in the same tournament the previous year. Grischuk won Linares 2009 but was beaten by Carlsen, etc. So even in tournaments where Carlsen failed to win did he show that he could beat the winners, not just tailenders.
As for Carlsen’s losses, apart from against Caruana he has only lost against these players after London 2010:
#52 Giri 2011
#28 Vallejo 2011
#22 Vachier-Lagrave 2011
#16 Wang Hao 2013
#15 Nepomniachtchi 2011
#14 Svidler 2013
#13 Ivanchuk 2013
#7 Karjakin 2012
So in all the stats make it seem as if Carlsen scores better than expected against top players, while he is much more prone to lose against players outside the top ten.