Chess elo improvement pace guideline

I think I see a lot of people at this site asking "how fast should my elo increase if I dedicated ~1 hour or 2 everyday playing?" while there isn't a definite answer to this question, I can offer a guideline to this problem.

let's say that the average elo for a club player is at 1200, then how long until I get to my desired rating for a NM which is around 2000-2100?

here's my guideline:

I remember browsing through CMX and CMXI's profile personalities and noticed how Josh Waitzkin (a child prodigy for those of you who don't know)'s rating steadily increased from an average player to his entrance to the chess pro world.

His chess rating according to ChessMaster engine:

Age 6 Josh: 1200

Age 7 Josh: ~1350

Age 8 Josh: 1600

Age 9 Josh: 1800

Age 12 Josh: 2100 (NM)

Age 17 Josh: 2400 (IM)

Josh peak rating: ~2500

therefore, from 1200(average player) to 2100 (National Master title), it took him 6 years. So, 900 divided by 6 is 150 elo per year.

But here's the cache, +150 elo/year is increasing at a pace of a child prodigy! My golden rule set up for your annual elo increase is of the following starting from a standard rating of 1200 until about 2k:

+50 elo/yr = noticeable increase (doing normal)

+100 elo/yr = you are increasing at a rapid pace (doing well)

+150 elo/yr = if you increase at this pace, you are either having a breakout year, or chess is REALLY your thing!

+200 or more/yr = watchout! a chess GM is in the making! you could be the next Magnus Carlsen!

Look, my point is that chess is a hard game, not everyone can become a GM instantly, many people have too high of an expectation of becoming a master from scratch in a short span of time and that just isn't happening to most people.

Interesting. Even for a child prodigy there isn't a "fast track"