Chess rating with win/loss percentage

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jabedabedoo

Hello

I was wondering, last month I changed my opening repertoire and game type.
And I started again to play 10 min games, I didn't play that often in the past.
As I preferred faster chess, like 3 min games.
But since I played a lot in the past years ago here.
And less often currently, my statics are a bit skewed now.
Therefore I'm curious of a formula to see what I might be able to end up with.

Current rating 1191

my win rate for last 30 days :
generic  : 54  %   win  3 %  draw     43 % loss
black      : 54  %            8 %                38 %
white     : 59  %            1 %                 40 %


(~ its about 60 %win 40 % loss .)   (last days climbing faster).



Chuck639

60% win rate with the white pieces; I would take that any week.

54% win rate with an 8% draw rate as black is respectable.

I think moving to rapid and being able to give yourself more time to think and blunder check has something to do with your success.

You should also give 15/10 a try.

Back in September, I experimented with 10/0, 15/10 and 30/0 to learn that 15/10 was my best time control.

jabedabedoo

Well i think the biggest gain for me, was the change in opening for black.
And i joined a chess club last tear, on a tourny i got beaten by an opening i almost forgot.
I now play that opening mainly and (because of past openings) have some better understanding. For example, in the opening, i play the opponent a lot more to punish their development. While staying in line with my buildups. I've seen a lot of strong players toying around like this, i do it to now too. So something has changed in my play.

It leaves me though with the question towards what rating should it then converge ?.

jabedabedoo

could it be just like 1190 * (60/40)   = ???  (seams a bit high to me)

tygxc

@1

Win/loss percentage correlates with rating difference.
If your win percentage > 50% then that means you play opponents weaker than you.

CraigIreland

In the last 30 days you've played 85 matches. Your deviation from 50% win ratio isn't statistically  significant. Ignoring draws, if you had an equal chance of winning and losing then we'd expect you to win between 34 and 52 of those matches with 70% confidence. That's between 40% and 60%. A win ratio of 54% is well within this range so can be attributed to random fluctuation.