Chess will never be solved, here's why

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Avatar of playerafar
haiaku wrote:

You are right, but it's always annoying to leave the last word to someone who pretends to be scientific, especially when they claim miracles can be done: it's only a matter of money...

haiaku has been magnificently patient and attentive ...
constantly and systematically refuting and debunking 'the guy's' constant pseudoscience and presenting real science instead.
Perhaps MARattigan has run out of patience.
How much investment to make?
Elroch - slightly different.  

Its like talking to a flat earth person.
The more you refute - the more they like it.
They will see that as attention and push even more pseudoscience and represent themselves as equal or superior.
Is the pseudoscience here 'better dressed up' than flatearthology?
Are the tactics better calculated?  Yes.
There are internet articles about how to talk to a flat earth person.
But flatearth people are heavily invested ...  not much of a life and they need to get a life.

But here its 'Hey - you invest then nodes/squareroot guy will invest back at you !"

Avatar of Elroch

Let me emphasise by elaboration how absurd @tygxc's reasoning from a random sample of 2 is.

Suppose there is a position and a large set of engines. Suppose this is a really difficult position but half of the engines can be said to get it right (let's say they give a high evaluation to white - we'll gloss over the fact that evaluations on a real number scale aren't really compatible with the notion of being "right"). Let's also assume the other half of the engines can be said to get it wrong (say they evaluate it near zero and think it is balanced).

Now let's take two of these engines. If they both say it is a win for white, we have not been misled.  If one says it is a win for white and the other says it is a draw, according to @tygx we can be sure that a single game played from this point will have no crucial errors and the result will prove conclusively the right engine was indeed right. This is of course nonsense. It could easily make a mistake later and the game end up as a draw. According to @tygx, this would prove the second engine was right. Then the third case is that both engines wrongly think the position is a draw. Of course the result may be anything from there, but it is certainly possible it will be a draw. According to @tygx, this will prove both engines were right. Both were actually wrong (according to a hypothetical giant tablebase).

Avatar of playerafar


Yes but it must be his way otherwise the whole House of Cards collapses !
The discussion itself is more like a chess game than talking to a flatearther.

Chessplayer dynamics:  'Hey if you've got Colossal spare time to invest in this board game pasttime - then I do too.  And I'll invest more and I'll beat you !'
The contest isn't to see who can be 'Snarkier' (love that word) -
its to see who can invest more time ...
a bit like those drinking contests in bars you see in movies.

Avatar of tygxc

#3428

"a random sample of 2" ++ The sample is not random, it are the 2 best engines from the preliminary competition, it is called superfinals for a reason.

"evaluations on a real number scale aren't really compatible with the notion of being "right""
++ Kaufmann gave a translation between the provisional, subjective evaluation and the absolute, objective evaluation:
between -0.70 and +0.70: draw,
> +0.70 white wins,
< -0.70 black wins. 
This translation allows to compare the right and wrong between the provisional, subjective evaluation during the game and the objective, absolute evaluation at the end of the game.

"If one says it is a win for white and the other says it is a draw, according to @tygx we can be sure that a single game played from this point will have no crucial errors and the result will prove conclusively the right engine was indeed right."
++ Yes, the level of these top engines is around 3600. They make an error once in a while, otherwise the intended result of 1.5 - 0.5 would not occur at all. The probablility of both 3600 top engines making several errors in one game is negligible indeed: it is lower than once in the 100 games they play.

"It could easily make a mistake later and the game end up as a draw."
++ Yes, that is thinkable but unlikely as it would require both 3600 top engines to err in the same game. The probability of one 3600 top engine erring is low, the probability of both independent 3600 top engines erring in the same game is lower than once in 100 games and the TCEC superfinals counts 100 games.

"Then the third case is that both engines wrongly think the position is a draw. Of course the result may be anything from there, but it is certainly possible it will be a draw." According to @tygx, this will prove both engines were right. Both were actually wrong (according to a hypothetical giant tablebase)."
++ Yes, that is thinkable, but unlikely as it would require both 3600 top engines to err in the same game. The probability of one 3600 top engine erring is low, the probability of both independent 3600 top engines erring in the same game is lower than once in 100 games and the TCEC superfinals counts 100 games.

Point is, if they would not impose 50 slightly unbalanced openings in the TCEC superfinals, then there would be only draws: 50 - 50 and there would be no competition, just TCE, not TCEC.

Avatar of playerafar


Because of his insistencies on nodes instead of the true hardware speed of the computers - 
there's isn't the slightest obligation to read posts based on 'nodes' nor to even consider such notions.
Nor to read posts nor consider arguments based on taking the square root of the number of positions in the task.
Nor to read nor consider posts based on that only four candidates per move to be considered is pretended to be valid.
Nor to read posts based on a premise that the computers are unable to assign a draw to obvious draws is OK.
Any or all such posts can be dismissed.  Not read.
Regarding the refuting posts - better happy

Avatar of Elroch
tygxc wrote:

#3428

"a random sample of 2" ++ The sample is not random, it are the 2 best engines from the preliminary competition, it is called superfinals for a reason.

You don't understand what random means  and seem to forget that the 2 best engines at one point in time have always become obsolete has-beens at some later time.

"evaluations on a real number scale aren't really compatible with the notion of being "right""
++ Kaufmann gave a translation between the provisional, subjective evaluation and the absolute, objective evaluation:
between -0.70 and +0.70: draw,
> +0.70 white wins,
< -0.70 black wins. 

Utterly laughable. All centripawn evaluations are a crude fudge, based on modification of the general idea that more material increases chances of winning.

AI engines (and some modified conventional engines) replace this fudge with better chosen probabilistic quantities. The simplest is the estimated expected score from a game. This is a real number between 0 and 1. 0 means certain loss. 1 means certain win. 0.5 does not mean certain draw: rather it means that the probability of winning is equal for each side. This hints at a superior probabilistic formulation (available on good AIs) which gives the estimate of the probability of a win, the probability of a draw and the probability of a loss.

Of course, anyone with the slightest knowledge understands that an evaluation like "expected score = 0.59" does not equate to a win, any more than an evaluation of "+0.7 pawns". Both are quite similar: what a chess player would regard as a small advantage.

This translation allows to compare the right and wrong between the provisional, subjective evaluation during the game and the objective, absolute evaluation at the end of the game.

In an unreliable way, whereever the analysis has NOT BEEN EXHAUSTIVE.

"If one says it is a win for white and the other says it is a draw, according to @tygx we can be sure that a single game played from this point will have no crucial errors and the result will prove conclusively the right engine was indeed right."
++ Yes, the level of these top engines is around 3600. They make an error once in a while, otherwise the intended result of 1.5 - 0.5 would not occur at all. The probablility of both 3600 top engines making several errors in one game is negligible indeed: it is lower than once in the 100 games they play.

You have a poor grasp on the notion of certainty. 99% is not it.

"It could easily make a mistake later and the game end up as a draw."
++ Yes, that is thinkable but unlikely as it would require both 3600 top engines to err in the same game. The probability of one 3600 top engine erring is low, the probability of both independent 3600 top engines erring in the same game is lower than once in 100 games and the TCEC superfinals counts 100 games.

This is of course a guess based on assumptions about perfection based on imperfect engines, but it is at least good that you acknowledge that it is possible. Things that are possible happen. Not necessarily very often, but they happen.

"Then the third case is that both engines wrongly think the position is a draw. Of course the result may be anything from there, but it is certainly possible it will be a draw." According to @tygx, this will prove both engines were right. Both were actually wrong (according to a hypothetical giant tablebase)."
++ Yes, that is thinkable, but unlikely as it would require both 3600 top engines to err in the same game. The probability of one 3600 top engine erring is low, the probability of both independent 3600 top engines erring in the same game is lower than once in 100 games and the TCEC superfinals counts 100 games.

See above. When you have a significant probability of each of two events (and a lack of strong dependence between them), both sometimes happen. 

Point is, if they would not impose 50 slightly unbalanced openings in the TCEC superfinals, then there would be only draws: 50 - 50 and there would be no competition, just TCE, not TCEC.

The truth is signficantly different: it is that decisive games would be more rare. This would be far less so if you replaced one engine by one from a few years different time: there has been a signficant increase in rating of top engines over recent years (most notably Stockfish, with the most dramatic change being the introduction of NNUE).

Avatar of tygxc

#3432
"You don't understand what random means"
++ I understand that better than you. When you pick the 2 best engines then it is not random.

"seem to forget that the 2 best engines at one point in time have always become obsolete has-beens at some later time." ++ I do not forget that. Engines get better and make fewer errors. That is why the 50 imposed openings are carefully selected to get 1.5 - 0.5 results.

"the general idea that more material increases chances of winning." ++ Right: 1 pawn wins.

"0.5 does not mean certain draw: rather it means that the probability of winning is equal for each side"
++ This is nonsense. Game theoretically each position is either a draw, a win, or a loss.
That is a property of the position, regardless of the opponent.
The probablility of one side making an error is a property of the opponent, largely regardless of the position.
One side can only win if the other side makes a mistake.
Statistics of the previous superfinals show that a Leela book exit below +0.30 is an almost 100% certain draw.

"what a chess player would regard as a small advantage."
++ A small advantage does not exist. A position is either a draw, a win, or a loss.
If an advantage is large enough to win, then it is not small.
When an advantage is not enough to win, then it is no advantage at all.

"You have a poor grasp on the notion of certainty." ++ I have a good grasp of that.

"there has been a signficant increase in rating of top engines over recent years"
++ Yes, engines make fewer errors now.
They have to be more careful with the imposed openings now to get 1.5 - 0.5.

Avatar of Elroch
tygxc wrote:

#3432
"You don't understand what random means"
++ I understand that better than you. When you pick the 2 best engines then it is not random.

So you also don't understand that you don't understand what random means.

"seem to forget that the 2 best engines at one point in time have always become obsolete has-beens at some later time." ++ I do not forget that. Engines get better and make fewer errors. That is why the 50 imposed openings are carefully selected to get 1.5 - 0.5 results.

"the general idea that more material increases chances of winning." ++ Right: 1 pawn wins.

No. It is not deterministic.  Indeed it is an empirical fact that positions that are evaluated +1 by top engines win most of the time but not all the time.

I predict that you will say that if the engines were perfect they would win the huge number of positions with +1 evaluation they don't at present! This is certainly wrong.

"0.5 does not mean certain draw: rather it means that the probability of winning is equal for each side"
++ This is nonsense. Game theoretically each position is either a draw, a win, or a loss.
That is a property of the position, regardless of the opponent.

Your understanding is really very poor. You make an accurate statement about game theoretic values but entirely fail to understand that the imperfect of chess engines means they can give a wide range of evaluations to a position that has any chosen result. Sometimes engines think a position is close to even when it is in truth losing. While positions where an engine sees a draw have evaluations of 0.0, this is also true of positions that are unclear but where it sees equal chances. Imperfect means that seeing equal chances can be utterly wrong.

The probablility of one side making an error is a property of the opponent, largely regardless of the position.

Utter nonsense. All good chess players know that practical chess is about posing difficulties for the opponent so they are more likely to make a mistake.

I explained an amusing thought experiment earlier, where a chess oracle combined with a top chess engine could play in a comical fashion, picking theoretically correct moves at every stage, but making things as easy as possible for the opponent (often this would mena picking moves with low evaluations). Such a player could be low-rated if it played low-rated opposition, despite being game-theoretically perfect.
One side can only win if the other side makes a mistake.

Game theoretically correct.
Statistics of the previous superfinals show that a Leela book exit below +0.30 is an almost 100% certain draw.

Vague statement based on specific opposition.

"what a chess player would regard as a small advantage."
++ A small advantage does not exist. 

False. A small advantage exists in practical chess. It is a position which scores somewhat well in real games. To say this is like saying no evaluations exist except +infinity, 0 and -infinity.

[Deleted pointless repetition of game theory utterly familiar to everyone]

"You have a poor grasp on the notion of certainty." ++ I have a good grasp of that.

Your own statement showed not. You equated "less than 1%" to zero.

"there has been a signficant increase in rating of top engines over recent years"
++ Yes, engines make fewer errors now.

See the thought experiment above to learn that this is not all that determines ratings.
They have to be more careful with the imposed openings now to get 1.5 - 0.5.

It is highly likely that most of the imposed openings have a game theoretic value of a draw. Thus this would be an inappropriate statement about most of them.

 

Avatar of Elroch
haiaku wrote:

I don't even know if it does make sense to reply anymore.

It has become increasingly like a discussion with a Flearther.

Avatar of DiogenesDue

It's not required to oppose every single post, only to consistently debunk the garbage when it becomes the only voice wink.png.

Tygxc tosses his opinions in on every post that seems to have the flimsiest opening to spout his faulty premise.  

We have to get used to this, though, the public forums have devolved into a rabble of kids, a significant number of crackpots, and a smaller number of cogent posters that try to hold the line.  For every BlueEmu that posts less, there's a Tygxc that is posting more.  

Avatar of tygxc

#3434

"this is also true of positions that are unclear"
++ You cannot evaluate as unclear. Look deeper then.

"equal chances" ++ There aren no equal chances. A position is a draw, a win, or a loss. Maybe you cannot decide between a draw and a win.

"Imperfect means that seeing equal chances can be utterly wrong."
++ No, the provisional subjective evaluation is sometimes wrong as compared to the objective absolute evaluation at the end of the game and that imperfection of the provisional, subjective evelauation often leads to an error.

"All good chess players know that practical chess is about posing difficulties for the opponent so they are more likely to make a mistake."
++ Yes, practical chess is in part about knowing the opponent. The likelihood of making a mistake is a property of the opponent, not of the position. Against a weak endgame player, simplify to an endgame. Against a poor defender, attack. Against a poor attacker, defend.

"A small advantage exists in practical chess." ++ No, it does not. It is one of the myths of the previous century that you can accumulate small advantages.

"no evaluations exist except +infinity, 0 and -infinity." ++ Yes, that is correct. The problem is that the engine must decide on its move based on its evaluation. That is why the provisional, subjective evaluation has more than 3 states so as to rank moves and decide on one.

"It is highly likely that most of the imposed openings have a game theoretic value of a draw." ++ According to the selection some are drawn, some are white wins, some are black wins. Openings that lead to two draws are drawn. Openings that led to two white wins, or to two black wins are won / lost. The interesting openings are those that lead to the desired 1.5 - 0.5 result: are these a win or a draw?

Avatar of tygxc

#3436
"For every BlueEmu that posts less, there's a Tygxc that is posting more."
++ And for 1 GM, 65+ World Champion, famous analyst, MSc. with a profound opinion there are 7 weak players that call him a crackpot speaking garbage.

Avatar of DiogenesDue
tygxc wrote:

#3436
"For every BlueEmu that posts less, there's a Tygxc that is posting more."
++ And for 1 GM, 65+ World Champion, famous analyst, MSc. with a profound opinion there are 7 weak players that call him a crackpot speaking garbage.

I'm not calling Sveshnikov a crackpot.  He's just a GM who made an exaggeration in an interview.  Happens all the time.

Avatar of Ilampozhil25
haiaku wrote:

I don't even know if it does make sense to reply anymore.

tygxc wrote:

"We agree on that, but that does not prove they their decisions are totally different and uncorrelated." ++ Well in TCEC they start from the same imposed position and they play it differently

Always. Every engine plays a different move... If there are 34 legal moves in that position, the probability for an engine to play any move m is 1/34...

and sometimes it is win/draw,

How many some times? It's up to us to discover.

thus different moves in the same position and uncorrelated

Of course. If two engines play two different moves in one position, all the moves are in general uncorrelated...

Inaccurate, imprecise, hasty generalization.

"But you exclude that their ignorance can lead to a chain of errors by the two, because they both ignore one made a mistake, but to you at least one of them knows how to play perfectly, even with a flawed evaluation"
++ If that were the case, then the evaluation functions would wildly fluctuate and they do not.

For reasons known to @tygxc only.

engines do not just randomly pick moves...

Avatar of playerafar
btickler wrote:

It's not required to oppose every single post, only to consistently debunk the garbage when it becomes the only voice .

Tygxc tosses his opinions in on every post that seems to have the flimsiest opening to spout his faulty premise.  

We have to get used to this, though, the public forums have devolved into a rabble of kids, a significant number of crackpots, and a smaller number of cogent posters that try to hold the line.  For every BlueEmu that posts less, there's a Tygxc that is posting more.  

This is very efficiently put.
As is the comment from the same poster that Sveshnikov simply exaggerated something in an interview.  Grossly.
But for 'the guy' its seen as a kind of tactical foothold -
to define his existence and mindset.

Avatar of playerafar
Elroch wrote:
haiaku wrote:

I don't even know if it does make sense to reply anymore.

It has become increasingly like a discussion with a Flearther.

With a Flat Earther.  Correct.
Observations of such discussions tell us in a generic way about what  happens in much wider spectrums of discussions with persons who wish to push pseudoscience.
I saw such a massive dialogue end recently.
A flat earther was reminded how heavily he had invested in his flat earthism - how it had taken so much from him.
And how his other denials of reality were also damaging investments.
Then one of his friends reminded him and asserted that he 'needs to get a life'.
At that point - suddenly - something seemed to click.
He rapidly changed policy.
Then disappeared.
But they're always out there.  They'll always keep coming back.
Or surfacing.  In one form or another.

Avatar of tygxc

#3439
"He's just a GM who made an exaggeration"
++ How would you know that?

Avatar of playerafar


Flat earthers never ever concede a point they have been pushing.
No matter how ridiculous the point is.
We're seeing the same thing here.
A point here - is that the pseudosciences being pushed here -
are only those that are relevant and convenient to the pseudo-project.

Whereas flat earthers will often also be conspiracy theorists - 
and will robotically deny multiple estabished positions both inside and outside of science like major news events - documented filmed confirmed by thousands of witnesses and gigantic evidence.
Including even denying deaths or manner of deaths .

Avatar of DiogenesDue
tygxc wrote:

#3439
"He's just a GM who made an exaggeration"
++ How would you know that?

Because it's an interview, and it's an offhand comment without any detail or backup, and was never followed up on later? wink.png

It's materially no different than the offhand comments Nakumura made about AlphaZero initially.  Just an opinion and a sound bite.  Chess players, who are generally not famous enough to be interviewed, often pander to the interviewers by playing up their answers.  You can watch this on YouTube on pretty much every interview with a non-chess-related press person in an interview.  You can watch Fischer do it with Dick Cavett or Johnny Carson.  Carlsen seems to be a notable exception who has disdain for the press and his own fame, and his attitude is only notable by its rarity in the chess world.

Avatar of playerafar

 

Sound byte.  Yes I know the pun needs work.

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