Chess will never be solved, here's why

@4496
"it's impossible to win a lottery after X number of lotteries go by without a winner"
++ You do not understand the statistical argument and thus come up with a nonsense comparison.

Go ahead and explain how it's nonsense.  Also, your quote/snippet is out of context once you remove "This is kind of like concluding...".

@4498
"Go ahead and explain how it's nonsense."
++ The comparison is nonsense.
Of course after X number of lotteries go by without a winner says nothing about whether winning the lottery is possible or not.
The argument goes that there is a certain probability of an error in a game, and that this probability can be inferred by observing the outcome of a sufficiently large number 136 of games of sufficient quality. It is impossible to fit 'chess is a win' with the observed data.

If chess is a forced win for white, it would require an errorless game. An errorless game has not happened in your sample of 136 games. 

No, clearly the argument doesn't "go" ...you'll have to explain it in your own words.  Can you?

You should probably start off with the obvious...why you think that ICCF games can be proven to be of sufficient quality...and what exactly "sufficient quality" is supposed to represent, in this case.  Because it's completely circular as you have explained it on many occasions...if you cannot explain why ICCF games have reached some "quality" threshold that is absolute and not relative to current engine playing strength, and if you cannot do so without using engine-derived and/or engine-dependent statistics to prove that engines have reached this threshold (which is like asking toddlers to tell you if they can run fast, when their only frame of reference is a playground full of toddlers running around), then you have nothing.

@4501
"If chess is a forced win for white, it would require an errorless game.
An errorless game has not happened in your sample of 136 games."
++ There are 3 possibilities: chess is a draw, a white win, or a black win.
Observed: 133 games = 127 draws + 6 white wins + 3 black wins.

Assuming chess a white or black win no Poisson distribution of the errors / game fits.
Thus chess is no white or black win.

Assuming chess is a draw, a Poisson distribution with mean value 0.070984 error / game fits.
The 127 draws are 99.74868% sure to be errorless.
The 9 decisive games are 99.9148% sure to contain exactly 1 error.
We can even pinpoint the 1 error: it is usually the last move.

@4502

"why you think that ICCF games can be proven to be of sufficient quality"
++ A World Championship Finals, 17 ICCF (grand)masters with engines, 50 days / 10 moves.

"why ICCF games have reached some "quality" threshold that is absolute"
++ There is no such threshold.
Take the 1953 Zürich Candidates' Tournament:
210 games = 118 draws + 49 white wins + 43 black wins
Assume chess a draw.
Fit a Poisson distribution so the probability of an odd number of errors is (49 + 43) / 210.
Result: mean value = 1.044 error / game.
Games with 0 errors: 74
Games with 1 error:  77
Games with 2 errors: 40
Games with 3 errors: 14
Games with 4 errors:  4
Games with 5 errors:  1

Now assume chess is a white or black win.
Fit a Poisson distribution so the probability of an odd number of errors is 118 / 210. 
Result: impossible fit

Conclusion: chess is a draw with best play from both sides.

But there's no reason to suppose that it's a Poisson distribution.

If there is a forced win, nobody's figured out how to do it yet - probably because it involves deep calculations which are beyond the ability of existing players.So it wouldn't be surprising if everybody made the same 'mistake' of missing the win.

@4505

"But there's no reason to suppose that it's a Poisson distribution."
++ There is reason, a Poisson distribution is derived from the Binomial distribution and applies to many similar stochastic processes.

"If there is a forced win, nobody's figured out how to do it yet" ++ OK

"probably because it involves deep calculations" ++ speculative

"So it wouldn't be surprising if everybody made the same 'mistake' of missing the win."
++ No, this would be extremely surprising. How would such a win look like? 1 a4? Even that has been played several times by grandmasters. It runs against all human and engine logic.

Or as it was explained to me, as far as we know there has never been a game with no errors. 

Good morning,
Thank you for your answers to all. It is true that e.e4 and 1.d4 are unanimously cited as the first reference shot. But I also agree with 1.c4 which can be quite embarrassing for blacks.
I read that in machine-to-machine matches, to avoid draws, humans impose the first moves to force machines to play from various positions and thus sometimes unbalanced. And even like that there are about 3/4 of draws against 1/4 of blank wins. Which means that the advantage of the first shot of the whites can hardly be missed by the blacks and gives at best a draw for the blacks.
Happy end of days

@4507
" there has never been a game with no errors"
++ They lied to you.
99.7% of ICCF WC draws are games with no errors.
Even Zürich 1953 had 74 games with no errors.

@4508
"the advantage of the first shot of the whites can hardly be missed by the blacks and gives at best a draw for the blacks."
++ The advantage of 1 tempo is not enough to win,
so chess is a draw with best play from both sides.
You cannot queen a tempo.

Yes, of course, but this one-shot advantage is decisive for machine-to-machine matches, which is why blacks do best with a draw. No?

@4511
"this is a rather crude model"
++ Yes, I first calculated with an even cruder model with just high school math.
The result is about the same.
A more refined model may yield slightly different results, but no drastic changes.

"errors Poisson by move or errors Poisson by game"
++ Yes, you could use Binomial Distribution by move, but it would not make much difference.

"the variation in error rates depending on the stage of the game"
++ Yes, as chess is most complicated around 26 men, it is plausible that most errors occur around 26 men. It would not make much difference in the result: chess being a draw and the number of games with 0 errors.

"information on the strength of the two players"
++ No, that is not relevant. I take a sufficiently large tournament with a sufficient number of players of sufficient quality and then apply statistics to that. The last ICCF WC is suitable as well as Zürich 1953. From the statistics follows that only chess is a draw is consistent with the observed data and follows the number of games with no errors: 127 for the ICCF WC and 74 for Zürich 1953.

@4512
"this one-shot advantage is decisive for machine-to-machine matches"
++ No, the first move advantage of 1 tempo is not decisive in machine vs. machine matches.
On the contrary: in the TCEC top chess engine competition they had to impose slightly unbalanced openings to avoid all draws.
The more time you give the engines or the humans, the more they draw.