Chess will never be solved, here's why

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btickler написал:

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DO NOT USE GIANT FONTS.  YOUR OPINION SHOULD MAKE ITS OWN STATEMENT.


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btickler wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

People who are incapable of winning arguments without asking tygxc to cite academic papers or without calling others "narcissistic" always make their discussions personal, when they're incapable of winning them by any other means. That's because they are not interested in fair and honest discussions but in winning and in being seen by others to be winning. They always make personal attacks on those who can out-manoeuvre them, to try to discredit them. tygxc's arguments have all been fine except for the fly in the ointment .... the belief that chess can be solved in five years. But really that's immaterial, because it doesn't affect our understanding of the more important ideas.

There's no practical problem in believing that chess may be a win and my understanding is that all it reflects is a lack of accurate judgement in a completely unimportant matter.

The more insidious thing is that this is actually a political matter because it consists of some people telling others what they may think and what they may know, because they falsely pretend to understand what knowledge is and how people attain it.

So they think they have moral authority over people's beliefs, although they pretend that what they are exercising is intellectual authority. It's an extension of the idea of agnosticism, where some people wrongly interpret it as being *incorrect* to believe that something, whatever it is, doesn't exist or does exist. They're not only telling others what they are allowed to think; they're also wrong and they're wrong because they're ignorant about how humans know things and believe things.

I tried three times to get them talking on that subject and to recognise that I wrote a short essay on the subject. In view of their refusal to address it, they have lost this argument and they have no moral authority remaining. They never had any intellectual authority, which was always a mirage.

Maybe "they" (and everybody else it seems) are not responding to your essay because it is philosophical fluff without real content in a scientific discussion.  

I'll leave the rest of your delusions alone.

If you didn't constantly use the word "delusions" you could get away with such ignorance. I was only aiming that little bit of writing at haiaku, initially, because his argument with tygxc was going on and on and ty didn't know how to defend against it. No-one needed to respond except haiaku because he was the one who was being such a know-it-all and yet calling me a positivist and other mistakes meant that he wasn't properly engaging with the discussion.

You don't engage either. You're repetitive and even if you have the capability, you're too lazy to try to think well. If you can't get your mind round ideas about how we can define "knowing" things, then you cannot speak here with any authority.

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Having thought about it for a few minutes while toasting some crumpets, I've arrived at the following conclusion.

No-one here has any just nor reasonable grounds to contradict the simple assertion, by tygxc and myself, that we know that chess is a draw by best play for both sides.

That is because you would be attempting to interdict our use of the verb "to know" and our correct use of it here. If you veto philosophically based discussion, which can only be because you don't understand it, then you cannot discuss what is meant by "knowing". If you have no understanding of the psychology of epistemology, or in plain English, of understanding knowledge and belief, you have no business on this thread in anything but a learning capacity.

That definitely applies to haiaku and to all others who have fixed  but highly simplistic opinions on this. If you felt able to comment on my little discourse on superstition, science and hypothesis, you would have attempted to do so by now. It's absolutely necessary to engage, if you don't wish to look like children. That's because you are trying to use philosophy and psychology to claim that tygxc and I cannot know something we claim to know, whilst having no knowledge of what you're talking about.

In particular, haiaku's hiding behind his "understanding" of science is ridiculous.

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Goos one 🤣🤣🤣

we are witnesses of a slack jaw dimness here

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#3838

"That figure is meaningless, as it is completely relative to the various engines' levels of play."
++ More time = higher level = more draws

"chess players (with no other applicable qualifications) are not qualified to make a judgment"
++ That is a ridiculous argument with no point at all. Should we ask a hockey player then?

"Neither has written any kind of attempted proof." ++ But they expressed their expert opinions.

"Solving chess cannot be achieved using Stockfish.  Not now, not 5 years from now.  Not 500 years from now." ++ That is your misguided opinion, without anything to back it up.

"Not one of them.  They would not even say that chess is a forced draw without hedging their statements, never mind how to get to that conclusion." ++ They did say that.

"So you agree with me then, he was pandering to an audience."
++ He was giving an interview to leave a legacy, as he was terminally ill with cancer.

"Your "50% accuracy" is a number that has no meaning in terms of solving chess."
++ You misunderstand. 50% accuracy is an arbitrary threshold to distinguish the few sensible positions from many non-sensible positions. If a position results from a game with 99% or 100% accuracy, then that does not mean the position results from perfect play. If a position results from a game with 49% accuracy, then that means the position does not result from perfect play.

"Those evaluations change in a matter of weeks and sometimes days, with each new release."
++ Yes, but that does not matter. 99% today may be 100% or 96% tomorrow, and 49% today may be 42% or 62% tomorrow, but never 100% or 99%.
Besides the > 50% criterium is only used to define sensible positions to estimate the time needed to weakly solve chess, not in the actual solving.

"These arguments are no better now" ++ Those are solid arguments based on facts and figures, unlike your own ridiculous 'million years' based on erroneous toilet paper scribbling.

"nobody is going to put up the money" ++ Maybe. Humans have walked on the Moon. Unmanned vehicles have driven on Mars. Humans can walk on Mars. The only limit is money.

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And expertise.

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In your sense, @Optimissed, people "know" many things that are false. "Knowing" is a subjective state of mind.

Apparently, you and @tygxc  now "know" that chess is a draw. In your case this is inconsistent with your earlier position, but there is no necessity for this type of knowing to be consistent.

Quote from a book on philosophy I happen to be reading:

<<How do you know that you know the stuff you think you know? Take away the option of answering, “I just do!” and what’s left is epistemology.>>

That doesn't mean that every belief that is based on something (rather than nothing) is certain. It is extremely common for people not to recognise that their basis for a belief means it is uncertain.

Avatar of Optimissed
Elroch wrote:

In your sense, @Optimissed, people "know" many things that are false. "Knowing" is a subjective state of mind.

Apparently, you and @tygxc  now "know" that chess is a draw. In your case this is inconsistent with your earlier position, but there is no necessity for this type of knowing to be consistent.

Quote from a book on philosophy I happen to be reading:

<<How do you know that you know the stuff you think you know? Take away the option of answering, “I just do!” and what’s left is epistemology.>>

That doesn't mean that every belief that is based on something (rather than nothing) is certain. It is extremely common for people not to recognise that their basis for a belief means it is uncertain.

You need to connect with what I wrote previously, about different states of knowing. People confirm knowledge **with each other** using different techniques. I pointed out the technique of using superstition for mutual confirmation. And then science.

Unfortunately, haiaku is trying to use the third method, which is as much based on fantasy as the superstitious approach. That is the pseudo-theoretical approach.

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BaurzhanMakhambetov wrote:
SNOOZYMAN ALSO AFRAID KF ME BLOCked me

I've also blocked and reported you for spamming, because if you have no interest in this discussion then you can go elsewhere and discuss other things with other members.

Avatar of Optimissed
Elroch wrote:

 

Apparently, you and @tygxc  now "know" that chess is a draw. In your case this is inconsistent with your earlier position, but there is no necessity for this type of knowing to be consistent.

It may be inconsistent with my earlier position as you understood it but I've always maintained that I know that chess is a draw.

Quote from a book on philosophy I happen to be reading:

<<How do you know that you know the stuff you think you know? Take away the option of answering, “I just do!” and what’s left is epistemology.>>

Yes of course. Where does this knowledge come from and why do we classify it as knowledge? Earlier I pointed out that we can subjectively classify something as knowledge but that the common concept is that knowledge is something that's commonly shared. Obviously it may not be shared among a majority of people. It may be among a small minority or, obviously, in a minority of one when a person sees something physical, unseen by others: for instance, as a witness to a murder.

This business about chess isn't physical. It's cognitive and it's a possible interpretation of previous chess results. It seems a very reasonable interpretation. It has never been refuted. Those of us who believe it to be knowledge share the conviction that it will never be refuted. One or the other is correct and we think that our alternative is the one that is real. If so, then that would mean that btickler's opinion is the one that's deluded. Yet that does not excuse his use of the word "delusion", when referring to others. It's merely an effect of his weakness at debate. He ought not do it. It's a childish, Facebook kind of thing.

That doesn't mean that every belief that is based on something (rather than nothing) is certain. It is extremely common for people not to recognise that their basis for a belief means it is uncertain.

Yes, absolutely right. However, you and I are agreed that there's no likelihood of a full solution for chess coming soon. Personally I think it's impossible. That means that if we wish to try to answer the question of whether chess is a draw, we have no deductive argument to fall back upon: nor any likelihood of there ever being one. Therefore we have to go with evidence, such as we have. That means inductively, doesn't it?

 

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#3846
"you and I are agreed that there's no likelihood of a full solution for chess coming soon."
++ On no basis at all. I agree with Sveshnikov it can be done in 5 years.

"That means that if we wish to try to answer the question of whether chess is a draw, we have no deductive argument to fall back upon: nor any likelihood of there ever being one."
++ There are deductive arguments. White is 1 tempo up. 3 tempi equals 1 pawn. It needs 1 pawn to win. 1 tempo is not enough to win.

Avatar of Optimissed
tygxc wrote:

#3851
"you and I are agreed that there's no likelihood of a full solution for chess coming soon."
++ On no basis at all. I agree with Sveshnikov it can be done in 5 years.

"That means that if we wish to try to answer the question of whether chess is a draw, we have no deductive argument to fall back upon: nor any likelihood of there ever being one."
++ There are deductive arguments. White is 1 tempo up. 3 tempi equals 1 pawn. It needs 1 pawn to win. 1 tempo is not enough to win.

Beg your pardon, that was to Elroch. Sorry if I was confusing.

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Optimissed wrote:
Elroch wrote:

 

Apparently, you and @tygxc  now "know" that chess is a draw. In your case this is inconsistent with your earlier position, but there is no necessity for this type of knowing to be consistent.

It may be inconsistent with my earlier position as you understood it but I've always maintained that I know that chess is a draw.

Quote from a book on philosophy I happen to be reading:

<<How do you know that you know the stuff you think you know? Take away the option of answering, “I just do!” and what’s left is epistemology.>>

Yes of course. Where does this knowledge come from and why do we classify it as knowledge? Earlier I pointed out that we can subjectively classify something as knowledge but that the common concept is that knowledge is something that's commonly shared. Obviously it may not be shared among a majority of people. It may be among a small minority or, obviously, in a minority of one when a person sees something physical, unseen by others: for instance, as a witness to a murder.

This business about chess isn't physical. It's cognitive and it's a possible interpretation of previous chess results. It seems a very reasonable interpretation. It has never been refuted. Those of us who believe it to be knowledge share the conviction that it will never be refuted. One or the other is correct and we think that our alternative is the one that is real. If so, then that would mean that btickler's opinion is the one that's deluded. Yet that does not excuse his use of the word "delusion", when referring to others. It's merely an effect of his weakness at debate. He ought not do it. It's a childish, Facebook kind of thing.

That doesn't mean that every belief that is based on something (rather than nothing) is certain. It is extremely common for people not to recognise that their basis for a belief means it is uncertain.

Yes, absolutely right. However, you and I are agreed that there's no likelihood of a full solution for chess coming soon. Personally I think it's impossible. That means that if we wish to try to answer the question of whether chess is a draw, we have no deductive argument to fall back upon: nor any likelihood of there ever being one. Therefore we have to go with evidence, such as we have. That means inductively, doesn't it?

 

The answer is really very simple: we have to accept there is uncertainty.

I would have thought you would agree on the semantics that where there is uncertainty, the correct word is "believe" rather than "know".

For example, a very rational person holds a lottery tick and says "I believe I will not win the superdraw tonight". She may be aware that there is a theoretical 1 in 500,000,000 chance of winning the roll-over prize. She does not say "I know I will not win the superdraw tonight" because she considers the distinction based on a very unlikely 2 in a billion chance important and it may have been why she bought a ticket.

Now, here is an example of a less rational person, apparently incapable of understanding this point:

tygxc wrote:

#3831

"It is widely hypothesized that classical chess is theoretically drawn"
++ That is the cautionous way to say "Chess is a draw" like Fischer said.

Firstly, no it isn't.  Being "widely hypothesised" is so different to being a certainty that it is surprising that anyone would make the claim that the two are the same.

Given this degree of sloppiness it is no surprise that I was unable to justify the claim that Fischer ever said "chess is a draw" (not that if he had it would carry any more weight than other things he said that were false).  Rather I find that Fischer thought that it's almost definite that the game is a draw theoretically, for which there are three references.  Note the appropriate uncertainty.

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tygxc wrote:

#3851
"you and I are agreed that there's no likelihood of a full solution for chess coming soon."
++ On no basis at all. I agree with Sveshnikov it can be done in 5 years.

"That means that if we wish to try to answer the question of whether chess is a draw, we have no deductive argument to fall back upon: nor any likelihood of there ever being one."
++ There are deductive arguments. White is 1 tempo up. 3 tempi equals 1 pawn. It needs 1 pawn to win. 1 tempo is not enough to win.

No idea what this refers to, I'm sorry to say.

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Elroch wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
Elroch wrote:

 

Apparently, you and @tygxc  now "know" that chess is a draw. In your case this is inconsistent with your earlier position, but there is no necessity for this type of knowing to be consistent.

It may be inconsistent with my earlier position as you understood it but I've always maintained that I know that chess is a draw.

Quote from a book on philosophy I happen to be reading:

<<How do you know that you know the stuff you think you know? Take away the option of answering, “I just do!” and what’s left is epistemology.>>

Yes of course. Where does this knowledge come from and why do we classify it as knowledge? Earlier I pointed out that we can subjectively classify something as knowledge but that the common concept is that knowledge is something that's commonly shared. Obviously it may not be shared among a majority of people. It may be among a small minority or, obviously, in a minority of one when a person sees something physical, unseen by others: for instance, as a witness to a murder.

This business about chess isn't physical. It's cognitive and it's a possible interpretation of previous chess results. It seems a very reasonable interpretation. It has never been refuted. Those of us who believe it to be knowledge share the conviction that it will never be refuted. One or the other is correct and we think that our alternative is the one that is real. If so, then that would mean that btickler's opinion is the one that's deluded. Yet that does not excuse his use of the word "delusion", when referring to others. It's merely an effect of his weakness at debate. He ought not do it. It's a childish, Facebook kind of thing.

That doesn't mean that every belief that is based on something (rather than nothing) is certain. It is extremely common for people not to recognise that their basis for a belief means it is uncertain.

Yes, absolutely right. However, you and I are agreed that there's no likelihood of a full solution for chess coming soon. Personally I think it's impossible. That means that if we wish to try to answer the question of whether chess is a draw, we have no deductive argument to fall back upon: nor any likelihood of there ever being one. Therefore we have to go with evidence, such as we have. That means inductively, doesn't it?

 

The answer is really very simple: we have to accept there is uncertainty.

I would have thought you would agree on the semantics that where there is uncertainty, the correct word is "believe" rather than "know".

For example, a very rational person holds a lottery tick and says "I believe I will not win the superdraw tonight". She may be aware that there is a theoretical 1 in 500,000,000 chance of winning the roll-over prize. She does not say "I know I will not win the superdraw tonight" because she considers the distinction based on a very unlikely 2 in a billion chance important and it may have been why she bought a ticket.

Now, here is an example of a less rational person, apparently incapable of understanding this point:

tygxc wrote:

#3831

"It is widely hypothesized that classical chess is theoretically drawn"
++ That is the cautionous way to say "Chess is a draw" like Fischer said.

Firstly, no it isn't.  Being "widely hypothesised" is so different to being a certainty that it is surprising that anyone would make the claim that the two are the same.

Given this degree of sloppiness it is no surprise that I was unable to justify the claim that Fischer ever said "chess is a draw" (not that if he had it would carry any more weight than other things he said that were false).  Rather I find that Fischer thought that it's almost definite that the game is a draw theoretically, for which there are three references.  Note the appropriate uncertainty.


But we also have to accept that the proposition that we have to accept uncertainty is not necessarily on firm ground. I wish we could discuss religion and in particular, the different interpretations of agnosticism. But I think I can do it this way, safely.

The normal interpretation of agnosticism was "not knowing". Agnosticism refers just as much to a knowledge of whether chess is drawn as to anything else, so it should be ok.

Dawkins et al championed the idea that if someone can not know deductively, then in fact they are agnostics, whether or not they believe themselves to be atheists.

I think of myself as being gnostic, regarding the question of whether chess is a draw. I believe that I have sufficient grounds to know it's a draw and someone else telling me I don't isn't going to convince me, because of the parallel with something else. I believe I have the expertise and judgement to know it's a draw and also to know that it is impossible that a full solution can be achieved, such that my supposition can be confirmed or refuted. I don't believe that there's any uncertainty because there is a confirming principle.

I've introduced the supporting principle previously. It's regarding the trend, with each pair of moves, for the opening imbalance to be evened out. It would require a reversal of this trend, to the extent that, at a time and point in the game which is hidden, all games must suffer a reversal of this trend. I believe I am entitled to believe on theoretical grounds that it is definitely a draw and I also believe that I'm entitled to believe that my understanding of this theoretical approach is such that there is no hint at all that it is possible for anyone to show that it's false.

So I can know that chess is a draw. Due to greater expertise, actually.

Avatar of lfPatriotGames
Optimissed wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
 

Any guess about the ultimate outcome of chess is hypothesizing. The guess "chess is a forced win for white" is just as valid as the guess "chess is a draw". Both are equal because both have good reasons to exist. 



Hi, equally valid doesn't mean equally correct. "Valid" sort of means "on subject". An invalid guess means that the answer to "is chess a draw?" is "a piano".

You're confusing guessing with scientifically based hypothesis. We have every reason to believe that the scientifically based hypothesis that chess is a draw is correct. There's no reason to believe "chess is a win" to be correct, so you're comparing mushrooms with octopusses. Superficially similar but not alike in reality.

No. We are just as close to proving chess is a forced win for white as we are to proving chess is a draw. So far nobody has even come close to proving either one. Not even close.  Lots and lots of guesses, lots of assumptions, lots of hypothesizing and grandstanding. Lots of faith, lots of belief, lots of wishful thinking. But no proof.

So as long as the two choices are equal, and they are, then there is no harm in choosing either one. Whatever your personal preference is on the topic, it's perfectly valid.  Which is why for those who say it MUST be one way, and can't be the other, prove it. Obviously it can't be proven, so until it can, it's probably best to keep an open mind on all the possibilities. 

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tygxc wrote:

#3846
"you and I are agreed that there's no likelihood of a full solution for chess coming soon."
++ On no basis at all. I agree with Sveshnikov it can be done in 5 years.

"That means that if we wish to try to answer the question of whether chess is a draw, we have no deductive argument to fall back upon: nor any likelihood of there ever being one."
++ There are deductive arguments. White is 1 tempo up. 3 tempi equals 1 pawn. It needs 1 pawn to win. 1 tempo is not enough to win.

You believe a full solution to chess can be found within 5 years? Well, you also seem to believe chess is a draw, so there's that. 

Of course both those things are possible. I just don't think either one is very likely. You might believe chess will be proven a draw within 5 years, I believe it will be proven a forced white win within 200 years. And there is always the possibility we are both half right. Maybe chess will be proven a forced white win in 5 years. Or proven a draw within 200 years. 

Avatar of Optimissed
lfPatriotGames wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
 

Any guess about the ultimate outcome of chess is hypothesizing. The guess "chess is a forced win for white" is just as valid as the guess "chess is a draw". Both are equal because both have good reasons to exist. 



Hi, equally valid doesn't mean equally correct. "Valid" sort of means "on subject". An invalid guess means that the answer to "is chess a draw?" is "a piano".

You're confusing guessing with scientifically based hypothesis. We have every reason to believe that the scientifically based hypothesis that chess is a draw is correct. There's no reason to believe "chess is a win" to be correct, so you're comparing mushrooms with octopusses. Superficially similar but not alike in reality.

No. We are just as close to proving chess is a forced win for white as we are to proving chess is a draw. So far nobody has even come close to proving either one. Not even close.  Lots and lots of guesses, lots of assumptions, lots of hypothesizing and grandstanding. Lots of faith, lots of belief, lots of wishful thinking. But no proof.

So as long as the two choices are equal, and they are, then there is no harm in choosing either one. Whatever your personal preference is on the topic, it's perfectly valid.  Which is why for those who say it MUST be one way, and can't be the other, prove it. Obviously it can't be proven, so until it can, it's probably best to keep an open mind on all the possibilities. 


You're definitely wrong there, because in no way is it as close to proving it's a win as a draw. There isn't even a hint that it's a win, so you're falling back on the pseudo-theory of agnosticism being the only possible result of a failure to deduce.

Avatar of Optimissed

I clicked on Elroch's link.

<<<<Chess theorists have long debated how enduring White's initiative is and whether, if both sides play perfectly, the game should end in a win for White or a draw. George Walker wrote in 1846 that, "The first move is an advantage, ... but if properly answered, the first move is of little worth".[29] Steinitz, the first World Champion, who is widely considered the father of modern chess,[30][31][32] wrote in 1889, "It is now conceded by all experts that by proper play on both sides the legitimate issue of a game ought to be a draw."[33] Lasker and Capablanca, the second and third World Champions, agreed.[34][35][36] Reuben Fine, one of the world's leading players from 1936 to 1951,[37] wrote that White's opening advantage is too intangible to be sufficient for a win without an error by Black.[38]>>>>

But the above is improperly described in its introduction. The ensuing isn't evidence of  even the beginnings of a debate. Each past Master is expressing certainty that it's drawn.

ie, "is sufficient"
"is now conceded"
"is of little worth"

No hint of a maybe amongst them.

Avatar of tygxc

#3852

"We are just as close to proving chess is a forced win for white as we are to proving chess is a draw." ++ And as chess is a forced win for black too?
There is massive evidence for chess being a draw, none for a white or black win.

"Lots and lots of guesses, lots of assumptions, lots of hypothesizing and grandstanding. Lots of faith, lots of belief, lots of wishful thinking."
++ Lots of facts and figures. AlphaZero, TCEC, ICCF, human GM.

"So as long as the two choices are equal" ++ You mean the 3 choices?

"and they are"
++ They are not. It is not because there are 3 possibilities that they are equally likely.

"Whatever your personal preference is on the topic, it's perfectly valid."
++ No, that is not true.
Look at the position after 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6. There are 3 possibilities: a draw, a white win, a black win. They are not equally likely. I know black wins this position, but I do not have a full game tree ending in checkmate for all possibilities. I know it is a forced checkmate, but I do not know in how many moves.

"Which is why for those who say it MUST be one way, and can't be the other, prove it."
++ I have listed the empirical (AlphaZero, TCEC, ICCF, human GM) and theoretical (1 tempo = 1/3 pawn < 1 pawn) evidence.
Even more: each move dilutes the initial tempo up, so if there were a white win, then it would be a short win, not a long one. However, a short win would have been found long ago.
Even more: the simpler game Checkers (32 squares, 24 men, 2 kinds of men) took 10^14 positions to weakly solve, more than 10^9 for Losing Chess (64 squares, 32 men, 6 kinds of men, just like chess) because Losing Chess is a white win with 1 e3 and Checkers is a draw. A draw is harder to prove than a win. If chess were a forced win, then it would have been weakly solved before Checkers.

"Obviously it can't be proven"
++ Chess is a finite game so obviously it can be proven.
Based on facts and figures I agree with Sveshnikov that chess can be weakly solved in 5 years.