@9727
"statistics isn't solid proof 100% of the time" ++ Last year I had to use statistics,
i.e. a Poisson distribution, as there were some decisive games in the ICCF WC Finals.
This year 105 draws out of 105 games, no statistics needed.
With all due respect, this is the sort of error good students learn quite early not to make.
Let's think of it like my example with drawing balls from an urn. You say that since you have drawn 105 white balls, every further ball that you draw will be white. Most perceptive people (maybe you now) will understand that is not correct, but let's try to make it simpler.
If you (misguidedly) believe all future games would definitely be a draw if you have had 105 draws then, logically, there must have been some precise number of games after which you became certain, having previously not been entirely sure. Let this number of games be N. Then it had to be the case that after N-1 consecutive draws, you could not be certain all future results would be draws, but after one more draw you became certain that all future results would be draws. This is patently ridiculous. Intuitively, the difference between any positive probability and zero is enormous, and can't be bridged with inductive evidence.
The only thing that makes sense here is that if you start with any uncertainty in the results, that uncertainty will always persist. It gets smaller and smaller, but not ever leaping to zero.
I recommend studying Bayesian reasoning to anyone who wants to understand how to deal with uncertainty in the real world. It is indeed the "logic of science".
That is an excellent post.
And its not about me.
Will Elroch's great post be wasted on tygxc?
I don't know.
It will be 'wasted' on O - but that's okay.
But it won't be wasted on others.
Regarding tygxc though - and his 'resistance' and Elroch's wonderful patience (while still being efficient)
Although Elroch is right - tygxc's 'persistence and refusal to agree' is still doing a kind of job here - providing a function.
I have very little interest in you, no interest in such vague concepts as exactly how thick you are, and none of my posts address this. Technical discussions are not about getting points against others, they are about improving understanding.
I discuss facts, and as part of this I have pointed out factual inaccuracies in your posts on many occasions (such as the incorrect use of standard terminology, important to technical discussions).
Presumably (based on previous examples) on reading the last sentence you descended into a blazing rage and your overiding instinct to protect your ego is driving you to find a way to lash out, probably including some vacuous (i.e. lacking in any specific content) insults. Maybe this is as natural as the barking of a dog, but it is not how others of us act. I am never motivated in this way.
Perhaps you can learn something from that, but I am not over-optimistic.