Chess will never be solved, here's why

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Avatar of Optimissed
btickler wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

Sorry, I forgot that you're perfect. My mistake.

I'll tell you what though. For perfect people, you don't half defend yourselves at the slightest hint of criticism. I suppose that's why you're such a great nation.

Lol.  It's a prodigious leap from having hypocrisy pointed out to you to trying to claim anybody has said America is perfect in this discussion.  My track record on the subject of a perfect America says quite the opposite.  Any contortion in a storm, I guess.


No-one could ever accuse you of failing to defend your great nation in case it gets criticised. It's admirable. Truly is.

Avatar of Optimissed

p.s. learn what the word "hypocrisy" means and how it is normally applied and you'll be doing even better than the magnificently patriotic job you're already doing.

This, for example

Dictionary
Definitions from Oxford Languages · Learn more 
 
hypocrisy
/hɪˈpɒkrəsi/
 Learn to pronounce
 
noun
 
the practice of claiming to have higher standards or more noble beliefs than is the case.
"his target was the hypocrisy of suburban life"

is entirely wrong.

Avatar of DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

p.s. learn what the word "hypocrisy" means and how it is normally applied and you'll be doing even better than the magnificently patriotic job you're already doing.

This, for example

Dictionary
Definitions from Oxford Languages · Learn more 
 
hypocrisy
/hɪˈpɒkrəsi/
 Learn to pronounce
 
noun
 
the practice of claiming to have higher standards or more noble beliefs than is the case.
"his target was the hypocrisy of suburban life"

is entirely wrong.

Actually it's a dead on description for you.  But here's a better definition:

Hypocrisy is the practice of engaging in the same behavior or activity for which one criticizes another or the practice of claiming to have moral standards or beliefs to which one's own behavior does not conform. In moral psychology, it is the failure to follow one's own expressed moral rules and principles.  According to British political philosopher David Runciman, "Other kinds of hypocritical deception include claims to knowledge that one lacks, claims to a consistency that one cannot sustain, claims to a loyalty that one does not possess, claims to an identity that one does not hold".

Even more on the nose, I would say.

As for patriots, you already know how much I eschew patriot-driven rhetoric...of all kinds.  I'm sorry for your loss.

Avatar of Optimissed

What a wordsmith. Sure you aren't ... er ... ? I mean, not so well? Time of the month or whatever?

Avatar of DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

What a wordsmith. Sure you aren't ... er ... ? I mean, not so well? Time of the month or whatever?

Misogyny is just another of your failings...

Avatar of Optimissed

Anyway it sounds like it. No amount of dictionary reading is going to make up for the lack of a good education but you could at least find out what a hypocrite is. I don't pretend to be what I'm not but that isn't actually what a hypocrite is. Find out. I think they've changed a lot of dictionary online definitions so as not to upset people. Find out what a hypocrite is.

Avatar of Optimissed

If the pattern continues, a certain person will now show up and comment obliquely, addressing someone else. And no, you don't know who I mean. You don't have the observational powers. But do please attempt to remedy your lack of education and find out what a hypocrite is.

Avatar of Optimissed

When you've found out, then attempt to ignite your massive brain to work out why it applies to you and not to me. I'll give you a clue. I am not responsible for any errors or sins committed by past generations of ANY nation. You seem to think I am. I was wondering out loud why SOME people belonging to a certain nationality are so ego-centric that they are completely incapable of learning  from the mistakes of others, because the notion they could ever make any mistakes is so completely foreign to them. Not all people of that nation but some. You're clearly one of them and you are hated by very many people here. I've tried to show that I don't bear a grudge but clearly you haven't been taking the tablets again.

Avatar of DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

Anyway it sounds like it. No amount of dictionary reading is going to make up for the lack of a good education but you could at least find out what a hypocrite is. I don't pretend to be what I'm not but that isn't actually what a hypocrite is. Find out. I think they've changed a lot of dictionary online definitions so as not to upset people. Find out what a hypocrite is.

You claim to be educated, but this can hardly be the case when you have expressed disdain for and derision of every subject you have claimed to be educated on or read about for years wink.png.  Physics?  Twaddle.  Thermodynamics?  Invalid.  Microbiology?  Ineffectual.  Games theory?  Completely wrong.  Philosophy is given somewhat of a pass, but philosophers themselves are another story, since you find fault with them all thus far.  Psychology you seem okay with...but have no expertise in other than via osmosis from familial proximity.

So, telling others to educate themselves is just another manifestation of your hypocrisy.  You may have attended school, but you seemingly didn't absorb much.  Much like your IQ diatribes, your education is something you talk about, but never display any useful outcomes for.

Avatar of DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

When you've found out, then attempt to ignite your massive brain to work out why it applies to you and not to me. I'll give you a clue. I am not responsible for any errors or sins committed by past generations of ANY nation. You seem to think I am. I was wondering out loud why SOME people belonging to a certain nationality are so ego-centric that they are completely incapable of learning  from the mistakes of others, because the notion they could ever make any mistakes is so completely foreign to them. Not all people of that nation but some. You're clearly one of them and you are hated by very many people here. I've tried to show that I don't bear a grudge but clearly you haven't been taking the tablets again.

I am sometimes hated...by those who can never seem to stand up to my arguments, yourself chief among them.  For others, not so much.

Avatar of HurtU
mpaetz wrote:

     Yes, many Americans, and Russians, and Englishmen, and people in every other nation on Earth are willfully ignorant and believe in "my country, right or wrong". This condition has existed everywhere through human history. 

     Thanks for your amusing comment reinforcing my point.

* * *


It's like the difference between nationalism and patriotism - two terms many people conflate. Patriotism comes from the pride for the good things your country has done. Nationalism comes from the pride for no matter what your country has done. Nationalism always leads to conflict.

 

Avatar of DiogenesDue
HurtU wrote:
mpaetz wrote:

     Yes, many Americans, and Russians, and Englishmen, and people in every other nation on Earth are willfully ignorant and believe in "my country, right or wrong". This condition has existed everywhere through human history. 

     Thanks for your amusing comment reinforcing my point.

* * *


It's like the difference between nationalism and patriotism - two terms many people conflate. Patriotism comes from the pride for the good things your country has done. Nationalism comes from the pride for no matter what your country has done. Nationalism always leads to conflict.

Yes, unfortunately there's a lot of nationalism in America posing as patriotism.

Avatar of TysonTima
😕
Avatar of Optimissed
btickler wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

Anyway it sounds like it. No amount of dictionary reading is going to make up for the lack of a good education but you could at least find out what a hypocrite is. I don't pretend to be what I'm not but that isn't actually what a hypocrite is. Find out. I think they've changed a lot of dictionary online definitions so as not to upset people. Find out what a hypocrite is.

You claim to be educated, but this can hardly be the case when you have expressed disdain for and derision of every subject you have claimed to be educated on or read about for years .  Physics?  Twaddle.  Thermodynamics?  Invalid.  Microbiology?  Ineffectual.  Games theory?  Completely wrong.  Philosophy is given somewhat of a pass, but philosophers themselves are another story, since you find fault with them all thus far.  Psychology you seem okay with...but have no expertise in other than via osmosis from familial proximity.

So, telling others to educate themselves is just another manifestation of your hypocrisy.  You may have attended school, but you seemingly didn't absorb much.  Much like your IQ diatribes, your education is something you talk about, but never display any useful outcomes for.


I would remind you that it's almost always you who brings up the subject of IQ. It's your obsession and not mine. It's also a bit of a far stretch to equate discrepancies regarding a few findings in a subject with derision for the entire subject; and it really shows how you think. It shows that you make things up to deliberately attempt to falsely show others in a bad light.

Thinking about what you were saying yesterday, I would say that the amount of hostility you display very often in arguments you cause with very many people indicates strongly that to have that amount of anger on tap, so to speak, you must have a sort of reservoir of anger in you.

That indicates that you have underlying anger against yourself, so what causes it? Why is it that it's like a button is pressed, especially with regard to some moral issues or issues that you see as moral? And you become not only unreasonable, but hostile and you deliberately distort just about anything, in order to try to show others in a bad light. I mentioned before what others tend to think of you and I would say it's due to that. It's the deceit, the twisting and misrepresentation of other people's statements. I'm wondering what causes the degree of anger you have against yourself. Maybe I could try to guess. Quite a lot of people have already tried to guess what it is, of course. There's one theme that consistently comes out and I have to say that my mind is also drawn to that explanation.

Avatar of pds314

I come back to this thread 995 new posts later and suddenly it's about the early settlers in America, the British empire, and the difference between nationalism, patriotism, and national or ethnic chauvinism? How did this happen?

Isn't this about whether chess will be solved and debating whether won, drawn, or lost in chess means in a mathematically absolute sense or in an "overwhelming majority of conventionally good lines lead that way" sense?

Avatar of tygxc

@7498

"Isn't this about whether chess will be solved and debating whether won, drawn, or lost in chess means in a mathematically absolute sense or in an "overwhelming majority of conventionally good lines lead that way" sense?"
++ Trolls sabotage the thread by spamming off topic.

Of course drawn, won, or lost in the context of game solving means the outcome if both opponents play optimally i.e. without errors that change the game state draw / win / loss.

Solved can have 3 meanings: ultra-weakly solved, weakly solved, or strongly solved.

Strongly solved means a 32-men table base, needs all 10^44 legal positions and that would take a prohibitive time and storage and thus is beyond current technology.

For all practical purpose Chess is already ultra-weakly solved and the game-theoretical value is a draw.

That leaves weakly solved like Checkers, and requires 10^17 relevant positions.
3 cloud engines of a billion nodes/s (or 3000 desktops of a million nodes/s) can do that in 5 years under human guidance by 3 grandmasters. That is also what GM Sveshnikov said.
That would cost 3 million $ to hire the grandmasters and rent the engines.
Whether Chess will be weakly solved or not depends on when somebody pays that cost.

Avatar of pds314
tygxc wrote:

@7455

"due to having to do this with quintillions of positions" ++ Not according to me.
General case: calculation until the 7-men endgame table base.
Special cases: no further calculation for clear wins or clear draws.

"an amateur human chessplayer to make a proclamation as to whether other things are equal"
++ No. Sveshnikov called for good assistants, I understand that as (ICCF) (grand)masters.
But yes, for 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? it is that obvious that also an amateur human chessplayer can see it.

Suppose there are 10^20 good-looking lines from some hypothetical position until you reach known tablebases. Maybe material is equal. Maybe it isn't But one side has an advantage. 99.9999999999% are wins for the player with a conventional advantage. 10^8 are draws. Any GM is going to see this as a completely winning position.

And of course we haven't factored the 10^50 or whatever lines that have nonsense-looking computer moves in them that only a tablebase would even think about but turn out to be important.

Avatar of MARattigan
Optimissed wrote:
...

I would remind you that it's almost always you who brings up the subject of IQ. ...

What a whopper!

Avatar of tygxc

@7501

"Suppose there are 10^20 good-looking lines from some hypothetical position until you reach known tablebases. 99.9999999999% are wins for the player with a conventional advantage. 10^8 are draws. Any GM is going to see this as a completely winning position."
++ No. It may be that some line is good-looking, but if it is a draw, then it is found sooner or later. That is what we see: some lines are very popular and then disappear from tournaments.

"we haven't factored the 10^50 or whatever lines that have nonsense-looking computer moves in them that only a tablebase would even think about but turn out to be important."
++ There are only 10^44 legal positions and the vast majority of them are absolute nonsense with 3 rooks or bishops at both sides, which can never happen with optimal play from both sides.

If we restrict promotions to pieces previously captured, there are only 10^37 positions and the vast majority of these cannot happen from optimal play by both sides either.
Inspection of a random sample of 10,000 such positions reveals none can result from optimal play by both sides either. You can check for yourself and take one of the 10,000 randomly sampled FEN and try to construct a game that leads to it. That leads to 10^37 / 10,000 = 10^33 positions.

Allowing only promotions to pieces previously captured is a bit too strict, as positions with 3 or 4 queens do occur in perfect games of ICCF WC Finals draws, so multiply by 10 to accept 3 or 4 queens, leaving 10^33 * 10 = 10^34 positions.

Weakly solving only needs 1 black response to draw, not all black responses. That leads to a square root: not w^2d but w^d = Sqrt (w^2d), e.g. not 20*20 = 400, but 20*1 = 20 = Sqrt (400). Thus Sqrt (10^34) = 10^17 relevant positions.

Cloud engines of a billion nodes/s can calculate that from opening to 7-men endgame table base in 5 years.

Avatar of MARattigan
tygxc wrote:

@7426

"worst moves according to an unreliable evaluator that you know to be entirely wrong sometimes (i.e. the move it thinks is best is a losing blunder)."
++ I have even quantified the error rate: 1 error in 10^5 positions for a 10^9 nodes/s engine calculating 17 s/move.

The flaws in your method have already been pointed out.

You say here 

Your desktop is 1000 times slower than a cloud engine of 10^9 nodes/s. Time * 60 gives 5.6 times less error. 

If you were to look at these games as you steadfastly refuse to do, you will notice that four of them were played at 37 mins. per move. According to your figures, 17 sec. per move on your cloud engine is equivalent to about seven and a half times the time I  allocated on my desktop, so according to your "calculation" these games should have 1 half point blunder in around 42,500 ply.

The four games have a total of 290 ply so according to your "calculation", the expected total number of half point blunders in the games is about 0.007.

User @cobra91 has carefully checked the actual total with the Syzygy tablebase here. It comes to 11.

YOUR CALCULATIONS DON'T WORK. CAN YOU STOP POSTING THEM, PLEASE?

Thus 1 case in 10^20 positions where the table base exact move is not among the top 4 moves of the 10^9 nodes/s engine running 17 s/move.

Thus nothing, of course.
As only 10^17 positions are relevant to weakly solving Chess,
that means 0.001 error in the solution, i.e. not a single error at all.

Apart from obviously not, from the above; what solution? You're not even planning a solution according to any sensible definition.

The peer reviewed paper 'Games solved: Now and in the future' by Prof van den Herik states:
'it is often beneficial to incorporate knowledge-based methods in game-solving programs'

Problem is you don't seem to have any.

The peer-reviewed paper 'Acquisition of Chess Knowledge in AlphaZero' has 'knowledge' in its title. It leads to things we know, not things we guess, believe, or think.

It leads to things AlphaZero guesses. You use "guess" and "know" interchangeably, so I would have guessed you'ld say that (without actually knowing).

What's it got to do with your proposal to solve chess? Aren't you planning to use some version of Stockfish?
It has only the Laws of Chess i.e. axioms as input and performs only boolean operations i.e. logic to acquire knowledge i.e. theorems.

Precisely the same can be said of the program that produces FIDE's online version of its laws. It doesn't acquire any knowledge or state any theorems. With the current level of AI programs can'r really be said to know anything at all. You get to know what the program's algorithm produces; nothing more.

This paper ranks the first moves in figures 5 and 31:
d4 > e4 > Nf3 > c4 > e3 > g3 > Nc3 > c3 > b3 > a3 >
h3 > d3 > a4 > f4 > b4 > Nh3 > h4 > Na3 > f3 > g4.

Whoopidoo! I gave you my ranking earlier in the thread.

Once black has one path (there may exist several) to the 7-men endgame table base draw against the 4 best moves that oppose most to the draw,

There are only three possible outcomes. No such thing as opposing more.
then it is trivial to find such path to a draw or even a win for the 16 worst moves.

It might be trivial, but you haven't ventured to show how you can do it against SF15 from 1.e4 e5 2.Ba6. (Not that I think SF15 would manage it either against perfect play.)
You could object it is not complete, but you cannot object it is not valid.

The fact that it's not complete means it's not a valid solution.

In general a chess engine cannot correctly evaluate a chess position,
only the 7-men endgame table base can.

However, some positions with > 7 men are clear wins or draws and need no further calculation.

If you have a big red telephone to the Gent upstairs that is. The rest of us would need a solution.

1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? is an example of a clear loss for white. Stockfish says -8.1.
A full bishop up with all the rest being equal is more than a pawn up and is thus enough to win.
I have even demonstrated it is a forced checkmate in 72.

Or sometimes various other figures or a mate in 2 for Black as I demonstrated using the same method. (You are joking aren't you? It's not always clear.)

The final position of this game is an example of a clear draw with 12 men.
https://www.iccf.com/game?id=1164259 

I tried it with two engines in Arena. Are you sure your big red telephone took this line into account?