Chess will never be solved, here's why

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Elroch

I have very little interest in you, no interest in such vague concepts as exactly how thick you are, and none of my posts address this. Technical discussions are not about getting points against others, they are about improving understanding.

I discuss facts, and as part of this I have pointed out factual inaccuracies in your posts on many occasions (such as the incorrect use of standard terminology, important to technical discussions).

Presumably (based on previous examples) on reading the last sentence you descended into a blazing rage and your overiding instinct to protect your ego is driving you to find a way to lash out, probably including some vacuous (i.e. lacking in any specific content) insults. Maybe this is as natural as the barking of a dog, but it is not how others of us act. I am never motivated in this way.

Perhaps you can learn something from that, but I am not over-optimistic.

playerafar
Elroch wrote:
tygxc wrote:

@9727

"statistics isn't solid proof 100% of the time" ++ Last year I had to use statistics,
i.e. a Poisson distribution, as there were some decisive games in the ICCF WC Finals.
This year 105 draws out of 105 games, no statistics needed.

With all due respect, this is the sort of error good students learn quite early not to make.

Let's think of it like my example with drawing balls from an urn. You say that since you have drawn 105 white balls, every further ball that you draw will be white. Most perceptive people (maybe you now) will understand that is not correct, but let's try to make it simpler.

If you (misguidedly) believe all future games would definitely be a draw if you have had 105 draws then, logically, there must have been some precise number of games after which you became certain, having previously not been entirely sure. Let this number of games be N. Then it had to be the case that after N-1 consecutive draws, you could not be certain all future results would be draws, but after one more draw you became certain that all future results would be draws. This is patently ridiculous. Intuitively, the difference between any positive probability and zero is enormous, and can't be bridged with inductive evidence.

The only thing that makes sense here is that if you start with any uncertainty in the results, that uncertainty will always persist. It gets smaller and smaller, but not ever leaping to zero.

I recommend studying Bayesian reasoning to anyone who wants to understand how to deal with uncertainty in the real world. It is indeed the "logic of science".

That is an excellent post.
And its not about me.
Will Elroch's great post be wasted on tygxc?
I don't know. 
It will be 'wasted' on O - but that's okay.
But it won't be wasted on others.
Regarding tygxc though - and his 'resistance' and Elroch's wonderful patience (while still being efficient) 
Although Elroch is right - tygxc's 'persistence and refusal to agree' is still doing a kind of job here - providing a function.

playerafar

BC I didn't call you a retard.
And it seems you want a double standard as to who can criticize.
Something like O does. He's intensely hypocritical.
And I've caught him calling Dio and Elroch 'troll' in forums where or when they're absent. But he's almost kind of 'afraid' of Dio these days!
Worried. Lol!

BC - Suggestion: Keep studying in those psychology classes.
If you try hard enough - you will eventually learn.
Instead of 'sigh' and mental kneejerking....
That's why you're there right? To learn?
Or are you in those classes just so you can 'strut' later?
Won't help you if that's the case.
And remember - I didn't force you to read my posts nor to be here.
You choose to read and then complain? More and more like 'O'.

happy

Elroch

@Opt, a minor correction, I don't actually "try" to create any impression and how I "seem" is simply a consequence of what I post.

I do try to make my posts absolutely correct, precise, informative. I recognise there's always room for improvement in how I communicate - in a forum it is important for others to understand what you write rather than merely being correct.

Elroch
Optimissed wrote:

You're certainly trying hard to be nonchalantly superior [snip]

Again, I am not "trying" at all.

Difficult advice: discuss the facts and give up the willy-waving.

MEGACHE3SE

""plausible doesnt equal proof"
++ Try to come up with a plausible error distribution that explains 105 draws in 105 games."

i dont have to. its on you to prove that none such exists. this is basic proof LMFAO. your math education is clearly not past highschool, and you certainly didnt remember what was in highschool math.

i love how tygxc continues to prattle off the appeal to ignorance fallacy.

MEGACHE3SE

tygxc what makes you think you know better than mathematicians? answer this.

MEGACHE3SE
BigChessplayer665 wrote:

I think tygxc has the drunnig cruger effect and evidence bias

its fully dunning kruger.

MEGACHE3SE
BigChessplayer665 wrote:

It isn't that mathematicians are disagreeing that it is a draw(some are some arnt ) it is that we do not have ACCURATE/UNBIASED evidence yet

So chess is most likely a draw but not proven

The mathmatitions are saying that you have no proof

yes, exactly. tygxc doesnt understand what a mathematical proof entails. he thinks his heuristics (statistical estimates) are "proof", when anyone with even a little bit of mathematical knowledge has quickly pointed out that thats not the case.

MEGACHE3SE

He also is bizarrely claiming that the burden of proof is on others to provide a counterexample.

this isn't even math proof standards anymore. it's just fallacious to begin with. its known as an "appeal to ignorance" fallacy.

stancco

earth's orbit decays very slightly but its progressing until the process reverses

BigChessplayer665

I did actually convince him (along with other people ) that blitz chess might be good because of it's competitive nature even tho otb turnements are all rapid and that playing only rapid isn't the only way to get good at chess (rapid is a way though )

So he does change his opinion occasionally

Even if he has the druning crougar effect

LeftSillyRocket
Chess can’t be solved here’s why when white moves first you have lots of moves you can make that are good it could be different if he makes a bad move but depending on what moves he makes it will end in different ways but if you both play only best moves it will end up as a draw
Elroch
BigChessplayer665 wrote:

I'm taking stats classes right now to so I barely understand anything

But it is pretty easy to tell f it is biased or not I think tygxc should relearn what bias is because that is basically the first thing you learn in stats he's sorta zoning out on the basics of stats

The important thing to be aware of is the difference between inductive reasoning and deductive reasoning.

Anyone 100% familiar with this should probably skip the rest of my post!

In deductive reasoning you start with absolute facts and deduce other facts. An example would be solving a mate in 2 problem. This consists of finding the first move and showing that every legal reply to the move leaves you with a way to mate in one. In the end you can be rightly certain of the answer.

Inductive reasoning is different. It is really about generalisation. The information you have is examples, but what you are really interested in is general facts.

Inductive reasoning is source of all knowledge about the real world (things like the above chess problem are about abstractions that we represent in the real world. Chess is an abstraction represented with wooden pieces or computer screens).

Inductive reasoning works by starting with a state of belief about the real world, getting empirical data and then revising that state of belief. In most cases, the beliefs start very uncertain and the data reduces that uncertainty but never removes it, The only real exception is where the belief is that something exists and an observation confirms this (which assumes the observation is entirely precise and reliable - not generally the case in the real world).

The scientific method relies 100% on inductive reasoning. Deductive reasoning can be used within the abstract models that are used in science, but this is a distinct matter.

Interestingly, AIs are very much inductive reasoners. They use large numbers of examples to refine a very general model with up to billions of parameters.

The main paradigm of inductive reasoning is Bayesian probability theory, provably the only way to deal quantitatively with uncertainty (with some mild assumptions)!

I suspect I have not done a great job of communicating this, but I would say it is one of the things that everyone would do well to be familiar with and recognise when they are discussing technical topics. Note that it is highly relevant to areas like the justice system as well (although lawyers are unreasonably opposed to Bayesian reasoning being used by jurors!)

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

Dio and I have been getting on very well recently. We've had several conversations and no harsh words from either side.

I think probably BigChessplayer is idyllis. Could be wrong but same mix of genuine concern for others and mistaken understanding. I don't see the point, Bigchessplayer, in talking to someone who is completely dishonest and who also lives in a fantasy world. What are you trying to achieve? The similarity between them is why I think they may be the same. You seem alright to me so surely best to keep it that way?

Lol, your powers of observation need work...first, you missed one of my posts that I referred to later when I said "this unblocking will be shortlived"...second, Idilis is already back under another name created quite some time ago, and you have yet to notice.

MEGACHE3SE

"Elroch has claimed many times, it seems, that science has nothing to do with analysing chess"

i think you misinterpret what he's saying. hes moreso saying that the scientific method cannot be a suitable mathematical proof.

Elroch

@MEGCHE3SE is right and to the point, as usual. happy.png

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I thought that was a fiendly comment from you. I have nothing against you at the moment. Don't get your knickers in a twist.

I'm not the one with his knickers in a twist.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:
DiogenesDue wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

[snip] Don't get your knickers in a twist.

I'm not the one with his knickers in a twist.

Ah so you're admitting you wear them!

No, Sherlock, I preemptively sidestepped your attempt before you even read my post, thus deciding not to use "my" at all. You're very predictable, and not too observant.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I don't think so, since I never made a retort like that to you before. But obviously something has caused your panic. I can't think what.

...your memory is also a bit suspect. There's no panic, it's more like I am playing ping pong with a 3 yr old on a footstool. Fun for you, even if you don't get what's going on, but a bit tedious for me.

Note that if I never mentioned anything, later you'd have sworn on a stack of bibles that I said "my knickers" in spite of your having quoted me...you have done this "I only read what I was hoping to read" thing a number of times in the past.