Chess will never be solved, here's why

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Avatar of MEGACHE3SE
MARattigan wrote:
MEGACHE3SE wrote:

Requirements for a Poisson distribution (wiki):

“k is the number of times an event occurs in an interval and k can take values 0, 1, 2, ... .”  -chess errors follow this.

...

Do they though?

An interval is described as a measured part of some infinitely divisible measurable space (time intervals, volumes etc.) with lim(p/δ) as δ→0 being a fixed value λ, where δ is the measure of an interval and p is the probability of an event occurring in the interval, from which a Poisson distribution as the limit of a binomial distribution can be inferred.

What is @tygxc assuming as that space?

He is apparently regarding the chess game as an interval of fixed measure (!), because he postulates a Poisson distribution for blunders per game, but what measurable space are those intervals meant to be embedded in? (And how does he then get to blunders per ply without knowing the game lengths? Is a ply also meant to be an interval and, if so, what would half a ply be?) 

He doesn't say.

What Wiki is describing is actually the requirements for a Poisson process rather than a Poisson distribution. Maybe he's postulating a Poisson distribution for blunders per game without assuming a Poisson process, but he doesn't say why it should be plausible (and obviously it doesn't work), 

thats true.  calculations wise it comes down to almost the same thing, but you are right in that there is a distinction to be made.  

Avatar of DiogenesDue
Elroch wrote:

It's worth remembering that it would have been just as easy to believe engines were near perfect when they were a few hundred points weaker. i.e. very weak.

Likewise world championship matches had a lot of draws when the players were about 800 points weaker than a top engine now. It did not mean they were perfect: it meant they were not good enough to obliterate the opponent almost 100% of the time.

The imminent draw death of chess has been an ongoing concern since Steinitz wink.png...every generation thinks they have exhausted chess and reached the pinnacle of understanding.  Engines just extend this trend into waters human players will not even understand soon.  I have already seen Carlsen say in an interview that he could not fathom a particular engine line in any way...it's only a matter of time before human players will cease to understand engine play even with perfect hindsight and seeing the eval numbers.

Avatar of tygxc

@8949

But now in ICCF we are closer to it.
Also in World Championship matches Carlsen-Karjakin and Carlsen-Caruana rapid tie breakers were needed.
Chess is a draw.

Avatar of tygxc

@8941

"what a node is" ++ A node is a position plus history and evaluation.
A position is a diagram plus side to move, castling rights and en passant flag.
A diagram is the location of men on the board.

Avatar of tygxc

@8942

"all four need to be true for a Poisson distribution"
++ All four apply when the tournament is sufficiently large and sufficiently strong.

Avatar of TOASTY_GHOSTY8

   why

Avatar of Optimissed
tygxc wrote:

@8941

"what a node is" ++ A node is a position plus history and evaluation.
A position is a diagram plus side to move, castling rights and en passant flag.
A diagram is the location of men on the board.


Sounds like a node needs an awful lot of storage and computation. Nodes within nodes?

Position plus history plus evaluation.
Could be millions of years per node, actually, for a proper evaluation. I'm afraid you just lost this argument again.

Avatar of TOASTY_GHOSTY8

DID  I ASK 

Avatar of Optimissed
TotallyFancy wrote:

isnt retrograde chess like when theres ome random position and you jave to figure out how it happed, somtimes theres conditions or quetions like the knight only moved twice and no pwn moves were made...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9bIB-QJjxs


Didn't you write that you don't play daily because it's too much responsibility?

Avatar of MARattigan
tygxc wrote (#8950): 

@8942

"all four need to be true for a Poisson distribution"
++ All four apply when the tournament is sufficiently large and sufficiently strong.

Is that guess based just on the fact that you can't think of a Poisson process that might explain it, you can't think of any answer to @MEGACHE3SE's post #8940 , it can't fit the game results in situations where those can be known and it's led you to predict blunder rates for SF that are thousands of times too low in situations where those can be identified, or do you have even more evidence for it? 

Avatar of TTV_ari3645

hi!

Avatar of TOASTY_GHOSTY8

ferret

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE

Tygxc is it not true that multiple errors can occur on a single move?

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE

Tygxc you do realize that the fact that you assume a probability distribution as part of a proof in the first place automatically invalidates the proof?

 

 

Avatar of Optimissed

Neither of you know what a proof is so I shouldn't make too much of it. nervous

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE
Optimissed wrote:

Neither of you know what a proof is so I shouldn't make too much of it.

Idk bro I used to win math competitions exclusively dedicated to proofs when I was younger

Avatar of tygxc

@8948

"assume a probability distribution as part of a proof in the first place automatically invalidates the proof?"
++ No, you see this the wrong way.
A theory is good when it can explain observed facts.
A theory is bad when an observed fact contradicts it.
Observed fact: a strong chess tournament has 136 games = 121 draws + 15 decisive games.

Assuming a Poisson distribution leads to:
Chess is a draw
120 games with 0 errors
15 games with 1 error
1 game with 2 errors that undo each other
0 games with 3 or more errors

Now try to come up with any alternative explanation
Chess is: a draw / a white win / a black win
Games with 0 errors: ...
Games with 1 error: ...
Games with 2 errors: ...
Games with 3 errors: ...
Games with 4 errors: ...

Avatar of tygxc

@8947

"Tygxc is it not true that multiple errors can occur on a single move?"
++ Yes: 2 errors (??) can occur in a single move: a blunder (??) that turns a win into a loss.
However, if the observed tournament is sufficiently strong as above @8951, then no games with 3 errors occur and thus no cases of a double error (??).

Avatar of tygxc

@8928

You can read here:

'A node, in turn, is a chess position with its evaluation and history, i.e. castling rights, repetition of moves, move turn, etc.'

'Higher speeds are possible to reach only with cloud servers: from 100,000 to 1 million kN/s and even higher if needed.'

Avatar of tygxc

@8944

"fit the game results in situations" ++ that are irrelevant to weakly solving Chess.
Of all 10^44 legal positions only the drawn positions are relevant to weakly solving Chess.
Of these only a small subset is needed to weakly solving Chess.
Both 1 e4 e5 and 1 e4 c5 are probably draws, but weakly solving Chess only needs one.