Chess will never be solved, here's why

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Avatar of tygxc

@8973

"I was aware of that stuff in middle school"
++ You may get aware of the truth after you study at a university.

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE

“It is not plausible either: why would there be not a single game with 0 errors?”

Why not?  You can’t prove it.

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE

“That is impossible. Some of the decisive games were white wins, some are black wins.”

That changes nothing lmao.  Win to a draw to a win.  2 errors.

Avatar of Optimissed
MEGACHE3SE wrote:

“It is not plausible either: why would there be not a single game with 0 errors?”

Why not?  You can’t prove it.


Whom you like to argue with and the manner of your doing so definitely shows the level you're at! happy.png

Avatar of Optimissed

meh nervous

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE
tygxc wrote:

@8973

"I was aware of that stuff in middle school"
++ You may get aware of the truth after you study at a university.

“One of the most popular misconceptions about science is the notion of “scientific proof.” Although it may seem paradoxical, there is no such thing as “proof” in science, only scientific evidence” - http://ds-wordpress.haverford.edu/psych2015/projects/chapter/scientific-proof/

oh wow wouldnt you know it, I was right.

 

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE

While the phrase "scientific proof" is often used in the popular media,[22] many scientists and philosophers have argued that there is really no such thing as infallibleproof. For example, Karl Popper once wrote that "In the empirical sciences, which alone can furnish us with information about the world we live in, proofs do not occur, if we mean by 'proof' an argument which establishes once and for ever the truth of a theory."[23][24] Albert Einstein said:

The scientific theorist is not to be envied. For Nature, or more precisely experiment, is an inexorable and not very friendly judge of his work. It never says "Yes" to a theory. In the most favorable cases it says "Maybe", and in the great majority of cases simply "No". If an experiment agrees with a theory it means for the latter "Maybe", and if it does not agree it means "No". Probably every theory will someday experience its "No"—most theories, soon after conception.[25]“

(Wikipedia)

 

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE

Optimissed for your information Tygxc is missing the difference between a scientific understanding that the earth isn’t emscrambled eggs vs absolute proof.

Avatar of MARattigan
tygxc wrote (#8952  and a nauseating number of other posts):

@8948

"assume a probability distribution as part of a proof in the first place automatically invalidates the proof?"
++ No, you see this the wrong way.
A theory is good when it can explain observed facts.
A theory is bad when an observed fact contradicts it.

I have posted you four observed facts here that contradict your theory that blunders in chess follow a Poisson distribution. As you observe that's four times as many as would be required to discredit the theory. 


Observed fact: a strong chess tournament has 136 games = 121 draws + 15 decisive games.

Assuming a Poisson distribution (an invalid assumption as shown by my examples) leads to:
Chess is a draw
120 games with 0 errors
15 games with 1 error
1 game with 2 errors that undo each other
0 games with 3 or more errors

(Therefore those are probably also invalid.)

Now try to come up with any alternative explanation

The blunders in chess follow a probability distribution similar to the distribution in the games I presented and @cobra91 measured using the tablebases.

Chess is: a draw / a white win / a black win to be determined (I have no big red telephone).
Games with 0 errors: 24
Games with 1 error: 53
Games with 2 errors: 18
Games with 3 errors: 18
Games with 4 errors: 3

Games with 5 blunders: 6

Games with 6 blunders: 0

Games with 7 blunders: 6

Games with 8-10 blunders: 0

Games with 11 blunders: 3

Games with 12 blunders: 0

Games with 13 blunders: 3

Games with more than 13 blunders: 0

Hence

Games with the wrong result 83

Games with the right result 45

Most likely conclusion Chess is a win (side undetermined).

Not a particularly convincing argument, because it assumes that the blunder rate distribution for SF15 with between 5 and 7 men on the board in a limited number of games from just four closely matched positions will match that in the tournament. A lot better than your argument nevertheless.  

 

Avatar of Optimissed
MEGACHE3SE wrote:
tygxc wrote:

@8973

"I was aware of that stuff in middle school"
++ You may get aware of the truth after you study at a university.

“One of the most popular misconceptions about science is the notion of “scientific proof.” Although it may seem paradoxical, there is no such thing as “proof” in science, only scientific evidence” - http://ds-wordpress.haverford.edu/psych2015/projects/chapter/scientific-proof/

oh wow wouldnt you know it, I was right.

 


That is the opinion of the person who wrote the article. It does not mean you or they are right. Scientific proof is a different type of proof. You're extremely naïve.

Avatar of Optimissed

From your article:
"For years the media has led the public to believe many erroneous notions regarding science through its endless streams of faulty publications. Those misconceptions, in turn, have discredited science in its entirety and inspired a culture of doubt and distrust among the scientific community and the public."

That last sentence is drivel, posing as intellectually inspired opinion. Everyone, other than you, understands that scientific journalism is discredited and not science itself.

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/11/22/scientific-proof-is-a-myth/?sh=7342a5742fb1

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-scientific-fundamentalist/200811/common-misconceptions-about-science-i-scientific-proof?amp

https://undsci.berkeley.edu/for-educators/prepare-and-plan/correcting-misconceptions/

https://gizmodo.com/science-proves-ideas-and-other-misinterpretations-of-5919210

https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/415-myths-of-the-nature-of-science

https://blogs.ams.org/phdplus/2017/04/17/math-is-like-science-only-proof-y/

 

couple of these seem to be kid oriented so you might be able to follow them Tygxc.

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE
Optimissed wrote:

From your article:
"For years the media has led the public to believe many erroneous notions regarding science through its endless streams of faulty publications. Those misconceptions, in turn, have discredited science in its entirety and inspired a culture of doubt and distrust among the scientific community and the public."

That last sentence is drivel, posing as intellectually inspired opinion. Everyone, other than you, understands that scientific journalism is discredited and not science itself.

A lot of the time when they need to clear up science misconceptions it’s often to do with stuff like vaccines and climate change, where that does matter.  You are taking that quote out of context in other ways too.  A science journal isn’t part of ‘the media’

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE
Optimissed wrote:
MEGACHE3SE wrote:
tygxc wrote:

@8973

"I was aware of that stuff in middle school"
++ You may get aware of the truth after you study at a university.

“One of the most popular misconceptions about science is the notion of “scientific proof.” Although it may seem paradoxical, there is no such thing as “proof” in science, only scientific evidence” - http://ds-wordpress.haverford.edu/psych2015/projects/chapter/scientific-proof/

oh wow wouldnt you know it, I was right.

 


That is the opinion of the person who wrote the article. It does not mean you or they are right. Scientific proof is a different type of proof. You're extremely naïve.

You and I BOTH know that you are trying to troll with bad faith arguments.  

Avatar of Optimissed
MEGACHE3SE wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
MEGACHE3SE wrote:
tygxc wrote:

@8973

"I was aware of that stuff in middle school"
++ You may get aware of the truth after you study at a university.

“One of the most popular misconceptions about science is the notion of “scientific proof.” Although it may seem paradoxical, there is no such thing as “proof” in science, only scientific evidence” - http://ds-wordpress.haverford.edu/psych2015/projects/chapter/scientific-proof/

oh wow wouldnt you know it, I was right.

 


That is the opinion of the person who wrote the article. It does not mean you or they are right. Scientific proof is a different type of proof. You're extremely naïve.

You and I BOTH know that you are trying to troll with bad faith arguments.  


Actually, you are not a very clever person.

What's a bad faith argument, btw?

Avatar of Optimissed

Oh, I Wikied it:

<<Bad faith is a concept in negotiation theory whereby parties pretend to reason to reach settlement, but have no intention to do so.>>

That obviously applies to you, not to me, because all you are ever doing is pretending that I am using bad faith arguments; and clearly that is in itself a bad faith argument, continually put forward by you and proving that you cannot be very bright, since you don't realise that it applies to yourself and not to me. I haven't really seen you use a deductive argument yet. Would you like to try?

Even a slow learner like yourself should by now have realised that he does not respond to arguments. The only way you can get through to him is by making those arguments, without anticipating a response; and he will take on board good arguments that help his own case and after a delay, they will reappear, rephrased as his own arguments. He never credits others, except Mr S, of course.

Trying to get the better of him in an open discussion can only be to try to Impress others. You can't make him give any ground and surely you can make a deductive argument, that it simply isn't profitable to continue arguing, especially since you're not very good at it?

Learn from others.

Avatar of tygxc

@8985

"Games with 0 errors: 24" ++ Then Chess is a draw. There were only 15 decisive games.
"Games with 2 errors: 18, Games with 3 errors: 18" ++ Not plausible, should be monotonous
"Games with 4 errors: 3, Games with 5 blunders: 6, Games with 6 blunders: 0, Games with 7 blunders: 6, Games with 8-10 blunders: 0, Games with 11 blunders: 3, Games with 12 blunders: 0, Games with 13 blunders: 3" ++ Not plausible, should be monotonous.

Avatar of Optimissed
MEGACHE3SE wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

From your article:
"For years the media has led the public to believe many erroneous notions regarding science through its endless streams of faulty publications. Those misconceptions, in turn, have discredited science in its entirety and inspired a culture of doubt and distrust among the scientific community and the public."

That last sentence is drivel, posing as intellectually inspired opinion. Everyone, other than you, understands that scientific journalism is discredited and not science itself.

A lot of the time when they need to clear up science misconceptions it’s often to do with stuff like vaccines and climate change, where that does matter.  You are taking that quote out of context in other ways too.  A science journal isn’t part of ‘the media’


Obviously that's depends on who writes the Science Journal. If it's badly done, then it's just general media and it isn't worthy of being considered a Science Journal, excepting in the simplest terms, for children. Where they say that the entirety of science is discredited: that is nonsense and I don't see how it can be taken out of context. It doesn't matter if science is discredited in the eyes of people who have zero education and who think that, for instance, climate change is a government conspiracy, nobody went to the moon and the Russians were entirely to blame for invading Ukraine. It's what the Russians have done and how they did it that makes us despise such a dictatorship. Anything can be taken out of context.

Bland accusation, such as "you are taking that quote out of context" does not help your argument, unless you're prepared to show exactly how, in your eyes, a quotation is being taken out of context. Otherwise it's just an empty assertion. It's typical debating strategy here, though. In your words, it consists of a "bad faith argument", since you don't provide any argument in support of your assertion. In fact, I think you fail to provide arguments as a matter of course.

Avatar of MARattigan
tygxc wrote:

@8985

"Games with 0 errors: 24" ++ Then Chess is a draw. There were only 15 decisive games.

You don't expect random results from a probability distribution to precisely follow the expected values. Your same argument would show Chess is a win.

If you applied your argument to throwing a die and tried it out youl'd reach the conclusion that the numbers 1-6 couldn't be equally probable because that would mean the die should always land on 3½ and it didn't.

 
"Games with 2 errors: 18, Games with 3 errors: 18" ++ Not plausible, should be monotonous

Any sequence of two real numbers is monotonic. 

You may not find it plausible, but it's in accordance with the blunder rates @Cobra91 measured using Syzygy from the example games I posted.

"Games with 4 errors: 3, Games with 5 blunders: 6, Games with 6 blunders: 0, Games with 7 blunders: 6, Games with 8-10 blunders: 0, Games with 11 blunders: 3, Games with 12 blunders: 0, Games with 13 blunders: 3" ++ Not plausible, should be monotonous.

Why should it be monotonous?

Are you giving up on your Poisson distribution? A Poisson distribution is not  monotonic except for values of λ close to 0.

Again you may not find it plausible because your big red telephone says different, but it's in accordance with the blunder rates @Cobra91 measured using Syzygy from the example games I posted.

If your theory doesn't fit the facts, you can't fix it simply by assuming the facts are implausible.

 

Avatar of tygxc

@8995

"random results from a probability distribution to precisely follow the expected values"
++ I expect the theory to explain observed facts.

"Your same argument would show Chess is a win." ++ No it does not. There is no consistent way to explain the observed results assuming Chess a win for either white or black.

"If you applied your argument to throwing a die and tried it out youl'd reach the conclusion that the numbers 1-6 couldn't be equally probable" ++ No, if the die is not loaded then the results will get closer to 1/6 each the more throws are observed.
If it does not, then the conclusion is the die is loaded and we can calculate how much.

"because that would mean the die should always land on 3½ and it didn't."
++ That is your thinking error, not mine.

"Any sequence of two real numbers is monotonic." ++ But every sequence of 3 is not. 

"blunder rates @Cobra91 measured"
++ That was not a sufficiently large, sufficiently strong tournament.

"om the example games I posted." ++ All 4 examples are irrelevant to weakly solving Chess.

"So are you giving up on your Poisson distribution?" ++ No.

"A Poisson distribution is not  monotonic except for values near λ=0 which doesn't fit this case."
++ It fits the case as calculated. If the tournament is sufficiently large (136 games) and with a sufficient number of entities competing (17 players), then statistics are applicable.
If the tournament is sufficiently strong like the ICCF WC Finals then λ is close to zero.