I would say it is inflated(above their real rating) 200-300 more likely. may be a good poll. of course the online ratings are more up to date so if someone is improving they may be inflated slightly more.
Chess.com ratings vs real life ratings
It's been said before, but it bears repeating. There is absolutely NO direct correlation between chess.com ratings and ratings from any other site/organization. It's simply not possible to have them correlate directly. Anyone who says otherwise doesn't understand the math or what a rating is measuring.
well everyone starts at 1200 which is the problem, so there are people who shouldn't be that high but are so then everyone's rating is higher... also the higher your rating is, the less inflated it is here I think... like around GM it's like 100-200 I think...
Everyone has to start somewhere... if not 1200, where? Why change?

Blitz ratings are normally deflated and online are generally inflated when compared to USCF ratings. Assuming you have played 50 + games of both, take the average of your blitz and online ratings and you will be fairly close to your USCF rating.
Well it could be unrated just like all the chess federations do it... that way... it's not so inflated if at all... it might be slightly more inflated because of the people who have never played in tournaments and have only been taught by themselves or something, but it would work well... and the swinging a lot, could just stay a bit longer so that your rating gets to where it should be... and faster if you lose more in the provisional ratings
Even with the federations, you still start with a rating. The math doesn't work otherwise. The only difference is, with the federations, they don't publish one's rating until they play a certain number of games. But, when push comes to shove, they do start eveyone at a rating.
I noticed that a CM (real life rating above 2200) was rated 1600 here. Is it really that big of a difference between chess.com ratings and real life ratings? What is the general experience? Of course I would like to think that my real life rating would be higher than my chess.com rating