How do high level players understand what makes a good pawn break in a complex position?

Take this line by the engine, for example.

Many of the lines are like this, complex traps threatening checkmate if the opponent were to slip up. Lines like these aren't very helpful for justifying the move, because there are most likely more than 30 responses the enemy can make in this particular scenario, and making sure all of them have a tactic like this isn't very feaasible. 

Could anyone help contribute to a solid line of reasoning or logic for justifying this pawn break? Thank you.

The clearest and most straightforwards reason I can think of so far is that I am threatening black's center. Him taking the pawn surrenders central control and allows my knight to find an outpost on the e5 square. But if he doesn't take then the position gets really complex??

I know it's basic but let me start from the fundamental logic of a pawn break... imagine a game of chess where neither player is allowed to capture pawns. The game would be a boring draw because the position would be totally locked.

Ok, so the purpose of a pawn break is it unblocks "lines." Lines are ranks, files, and diagonals. They're basically the roads your pieces will use to infiltrate into the opponent's position at some point.

So the question is, where should I build my roads (so to speak). The 3 basic choices are queenside, center, and kingisde... Sometimes after a pawn break, a player will discover that it's his opponent who is winning by making use of the newly opened lines!

So how to choose? The logic is simple: open lines in the area (kingside, center, or queenside) where you have a superiority in space, a superiority in force... preferably both. When you have more space (by which I mean your pawns are further advanced than your opponent's) your pieces can combine and shift attacks faster than the defense can defend. It's a natural advantage like having the high ground in a fight. The other kind of superiority is force... simply having more pieces in that area, and that one is self explanatory.

In your example position, white's pawns on d5 and e4 mean that white has more space than his opponent on the queenside. Also if we imagine a vertical line down the center of the board, we see black has only 2 non-pawns on his queenside. This means white's natural advantage is on the queenside.

You say "how can I see all these complicated moves?" You don't have to see them. A rook goes on an open file, or a knight goes on an outpost, not because something was calculated, but because highly mobile and centralized pieces have a greater probability of being useful later. You open lines where you have a natural advantage for the same reason.

And just like with every chess idea there are always exceptions...

... but one exception is probably important enough to mention to you... again let me start from a very basic idea.

In the starting position, you have total control over your first 3 ranks (and your opponent totally controls theirs too). If you attack with 1 or 2 pieces very early in the game, it's no wonder the attack doesn't work. It's usually 2 vs 8 or something like this.

It's the same sort of logic with far advanced pawns... pawns don't automatically give you an advantage in that area.. the far advanced pawns claim territory for your non-pawns to control all that space... but without pieces all that space can just be a big weakness for you.

So sometimes you'll see a position similar to the one you showed above, and black will play a move like c6. This seems opposite of what my first post was saying, but it's a common sort of pawn break when white has all this queenside space, but not many pieces that can make use of the lines that will open.

Also not all pawn breaks automatically give you a big advantage. Chess isn't so easy right  So in many cases a proper pawn break like c6 by black (or c5 by white) will keep the game in balance, with no one having a clear advantage... but anyway, the basic answer is you play a pawn break where you have an advantage in space, force, and ideally both.

Ahhh... okay. Thank you. What you said matches most of the lines I'm seeing. White develops queenside, and regardless of whether black takes the pawn or white takes, a file will open queenside for white to take advantage of. Simple and concise, tyty!