Is National Master in 2-3 years a realistic goal for me?

Hello everyone. I am currently in my Junior year of high school and am rated 2080 rapid. My goal is to become a national master by the next two-three years. I've been improving quite rapidly lately which is nice, but is it realistic to expect this improvement to NM? Now difficult is it really to get the NM title? Is my goal of NM by 2-3 years a realistic goal? Please give me your insight. 

Giving it to you straight, you are already over 2000 rapid chess.com rating and that's a very good start. I'd say 2-3 years is a really good estimate if you do want to make a goal out of NM.

Statistically, most people at 2000s level never reach titled player level, so 2-3 years isn't a guarantee, but if you are willing to put in the work (a lot of it), then yes that is possible. Just keep in mind that NM is 2200+ FIDE which is roughly 2400+ chess.com rating, so that's about 400 rating gain (2000 to 2400) but it is possible for 2-3 years; it's a ton of work, but it is reasonable.

Thank you for your input @KeSetoKaiba. Assuming my rate of improvement continues then I'll be at that level in less in a year, but that seems highly unlikely. I'm hoping that my planned studying over this summer will play off, my goal is to get to 2200 as soon as possible. I also purchased a chessup2 board to improve my OTB play, so hopefully that will come in handy.

I think that it is a very realistic and reasonable goal after looking at your account and your improvement in recent times you just need to stick with chess and probably learn a lot more theory. Not like I can say much myself as I have no experience with having a title. I'm also trying to reach any title I can I had a peak of 1975 rapid, and maybe we could try and reach this goal together?

I'm down to have a study partner!

Also isn't NM a nation federation title and not a FIDE title?

Better than nothing

For sure, but I've heard it's easier than CM, so that's why I'm chasing it.

Have you already played in USCF tournament settings? If so, what's your current OTB rating?

To be frank, 10 minute rapid isn't strongly indicative of strength in classical time controls. They do tend to correlate–as one goes higher, so should the other. But I've seen 2000 rated players on this site enter their first OTB tournament thinking it'll be a cakewalk just to get absolutely smashed by 1400 rated players.

If your goal is NM, you should refocus your efforts on learning theory and how to concentrate OTB for hours. Otherwise you're in for a bad time.

Yes. NM is not that hard to get, especially if you're already 2000+ in chess.com rapid.

I thought 2200 fide was actually harder to get then 2200 Uscf no?

I have played a few UCSF tournaments and I am currently rated 1602, though I haven't played since December. I'm comfortable with longer controls, I like them for improved concentration.

I believe so

I have looked at your games and I’ll say, it definitely seems reasonable. I noticed that your miserable play is stronger than yours opponents, but it seems that you get down a bit in your openings. But when you do well in your openings, you bury your opponents in the middlegame and cruise in the endgame. With a bit more work, I think you could get there! Nice work so far!

How frequently do you intend to play in tournaments in the next 2-3 years? Looking at this as a math problem, you have a difference of 600 points to cross in 24-36 months.

Assuming you intend to enter one tournament a month, you require an average rating gain of 25 points per tournament over a 24 month period to 17 over a 36 month period. This is possible.

But most people don't play in 1 tournament a month. You say you haven't entered one since December, which is about 4 months. Let's say you play one every 3 months.

At 4 tournaments a year, you'd have to gain an average of 75 points per tournament in two years or 50 points per tournament in three years. This is highly unlikely.

i'd say for your goal to be realistic, you have to play tournaments much more frequently than you currently are.

Yes, you are correct, I would have to enter into more tournaments. That's a goal I've set for myself this year.

I had similar ambitions but after hitting 2,000 I thought it was enough. Good luck I believe in you and think you can do it.

Do you plan to grind rapid again? You’ve been sitting at 2005 for a while now.

Probably not, I play some blitz but I barely enjoy that. My original goal was 2,000 and I hit it I have nothing else I wish to achieve.