What is the probability of a mouse slip happens? I think in this thread it happened only once and there are many posts. Doesn't this support that rare things happen if you repeat any experiment too many times? Also, I want to point out that the mouse slip was due to several factors such as excitement of the posting person. So, this means that the person using the mouse is a factor as well. So, can we not say against certain 2700 player a certain 1300 may have a higher chance of winning?
Is there any chance that a 1300 rated player can beat a 2700 rated player?
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No. We can't say there exists a chanch where none exists.
We can only say it is impossible.
mdinnerspace yazmış:
No. We can't say there exists a chanch where none exists.
We can only say it is impossible.
I couldn't agree less. In a website whose link I give down below it says that the probability is P = 1 / [1 + 10^(3.5)]. Since this is not zero, I claim that your impossibility fails to respect the Murphy's Law where such things always eventually happen if there is even a slim chance.
https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/2y6ezm/how_to_guide_converting_elo_differences_to/
Furthermore, I claim that certain 1300 players would have a better chance against certain 2700 players, wouldn't you agree?
Absolutely agree. Of course anything is possible in the multiverse (say the 1009th universe, in the 11th dimension and a quadrillion years from now), who in their right mind would argue against the possibility?
But today?
Out on a limb here... tomorrow?
Absolutely, emphatically not. Never. Impossible
0.000. Probability
As in:
×=0
There are 41 players rated 2700+
Who do you have in mind as this "certain" player, more likely to lose to a 1300 in a standard tournament game?
The player who "drinks" the most... the player who uses the most time...the 2700 who takes the most chanches? Who do you have in mind?
I have argued this before. A mathamatical formula such as P=1 is not a "Proof".
It simply states any real number is greater than 0, given that so many games of chess can happen, it is a wrong conclusion to make that any possible result is a possibilty.
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It is possible. But would never happen. It sounds like your argument is more just that it's not an impossibility. It's kind of like saying could a high school football team beat the Denver Broncos. No, they can't.
If in fact "no, they can't", how is this statement compatible with the statement "it is possible" ?
I'm baffled. It's one or the other, not both.
I can not out run Husain Bolt in 100 meters.It can not happen (please dismiss what if scenarious) therefor it is impossible, not ever to happen.
M dinners pace, I'm sure at some point in this even you have admitted a tiny theoretical chance. That IS a chance. Of course it won't happen in real life, 2700 almost never play 1300. Does that mean the argument now is whether the op was asking theoretically or practically? Please enlighten us op and maybe, just maybe we can finally agree on the actual answer (but I doubt it) ☺
Btw the bolt comparison is lame, he false started and was disqualified in a world championship. You or I would have won that day, no what ifs or buts about it.
mdinnerspace wrote:
it is a wrong conclusion to make that any possible result is a possibility.
Umm... ?
Elubas wrote:
chessking1976 wrote:
Morphysrevenges wrote:
Seriously? this thread is still going?? please Die Die Die!!!!!
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It had died and you starting beating this dead horse.
It's reverse psychology. Whenever there haven't been posts here for about a week, this guy comes here and asks for this thread to die. However, what he is really trying to do is draw more attention to this thread to make the thread alive again.
It's such a brilliant concept that only I was able to figure it out, you see.
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Looks like it worked, much to our dismay.
DavidPeters2 wrote:
Btw the bolt comparison is lame, he false started and was disqualified in a world championship. You or I would have won that day, no what ifs or buts about it.
Lame???
Geeezzzzxyz.....
Talk about lame???
I could bring my baseball bat and bop him one before the race start... or
How about I trip him and hog tie his feet, place him in a sac, blindfold him and point in the wrong direction. I have my doubts about winning even then, but ok maybe a one in a million. I think a better chanch would be to lay down a spike strip the entire length, 12 inch nails.
Anything else? That about covers every possibility.
Oh wait a sec....
what if he veers off course, fails to break the tape...I win !!!
Let's take an example. (my rating for speed) and use this formula:
lower/higher=chance
In this case I lose. with 1.8k. So practically no chance.
Yes, because 400/2700 is 1.8k, good job, thread closed.