Elubas wrote:
"It is a mistake, a huge one, to make the assumption that given more chanches, the odds turn in your favor for the lower rated to win."
Don't tell me you're getting my position mixed up with the gambler's fallacy! If I say that there is a decent shot of a 1300 winning once out of 10,000, I'm not saying that his chances are really low the first 9,999 games and then his odds are really high on the 10,000th. I'm saying that the chance of a 1300 to win on at least one of those games, which could be the first game, the 800th game or the 6500th game, is not so bad.
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What if we have 10,000 separate 1300 players playing 10,000 separate 2700 (obviously impossible, but it's a hypothetical). I say the 2700's go 10,000-0. Not even a draw.
This has already been discussed earlier in this thread. Yes, I think you would see at least one draw or win. 10,000 games with not a single accident? That's quite a claim.
Absolutely not.
-Warren Buffett