Is there such thing as "luck" in chess?

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mpaetz

     And even something as heavy and powerful as a jet airliner has been known to crash when landing due to "wind shear", sudden localized shifts in wind force and direction. 

Ziryab
CooloutAC wrote:
Antiviral wrote:

go to lychess.org much better that this c***


Most of the people in this thread don't even play chess anymore,  they resent it.  They are probably all banned on lichess.  Lichess takes fair play a little more seriously then the people here, especially evident by their comments on the forums.

 

I’ve had much better results after reporting cheaters on this site than on Lichess, but have had some success on both. It stands to reason that Chess.com would be better at rooting them out. They have vastly more resources to commit to the work.

Ziryab
Optimissed wrote:
wizardKM wrote:

@Ziryab, post #2788...jamais, cretin! Va ton futre, mangez merde et mortez, vieux cretin! Pardon-- L'ANCIEN CRETIN!! :[]

Now now, Wizzy, I think I'm about 14 years older than Z. This cretinism is like fatism and other isms! Ismisms.

 

Thought you said you were 71?

lfPatriotGames
Optimissed wrote:

Having reviewed, I think there's some inconsistency in your explanation. I now think it was lack of skill. The kicker should have been more aware of the wind and kicked to suit. Isn't there even a flag or a streamer he can look at to check the wind? If not then why not? Obviously there should be.

How can lack of skill account for something that randomly happens after a kick, shot, or throw? In the example Ziryab used there is a little flag on top of the goal post that shows wind. It looks like there are two, one on each end. But I'll bet even those two are not always identical. I'll bet conditions can change even 20 feet apart or however far apart those posts are. 

It appears the kicker did account for the wind, aiming almost outside the post on one side, but missing it on the other side. I don't see how the kicker could anticipate a wind gust after the kick was made. And what would have happened if a gust came up from the opposite direction? He would have been aiming left of the post and a wind from the right would have carried it even further left. I'll bet that's happened, and it probably looks pretty silly. 

lfPatriotGames

I just watched that video again. It appears, a couple times, that the flag on our right stalled and even blew to the right a couple times WHILE the football was in the air. Which means overall the wind was our right to left, but swirled occasionally. So even though the kicker aimed right, and kicked it right, apparently planning for the right to left wind, and apparently accounting for a possible gust, it was impossible to account for both a strong gust and NO wind, all at the same time, after the kick.  It's not realistic for me to judge the quality of the kick, but it appears if the wind stopped or changed directions he would have missed it right (our right) but he accounted for the wind, and a possible gust of wind from right to left. So it appears he kicked it perfectly. But a strong gust took the ball mid flight. Not just a strong gust, but a very localized strong gust, because it didn't affect both flags equally. If that's not luck, what is?

lfPatriotGames
Optimissed wrote:

Bad kick. It isn't skillful to pretend there's no wind on a windy day. He kicked it too high = lack of skill.

Accounting for not knowing if a gust of wind would pick up, stall, or change directions after the kick, what should he have done differently? Isn't is possible he kicked it the perfect tragectory, but the gust of wind lifted it higher? That's been known to happen, many times, in other sports. 

lfPatriotGames

All true. But he doesn't know what will happen AFTER the kick. The wind could pick up, it could stall, or it could change directions. From looking at the flags on those posts, the wind did all three AFTER the kick. So how does he account for all three, at the same time, without looking like he should be fired?

lfPatriotGames
Optimissed wrote:

Don't cling so hard to your narrative. It's a very windy day and he should be aware that it could happen. You don't do a normal, accurate kick, which relies on height. Normally, the most accurate kick is higher because you need slightly less momentum. Kick it lower and with much more momentum. High is the way to go for accuracy on a still day and every kicker should know that on a very windy day, you go for safety, so that if the worst happens, as it did, the enemy doesn't get the ball, and also you are accounting for possible wind gusts. That gust obviously wasn't outside the bounds of speculation. Definitely a lack of skill.

Yes, but how was he to know a gust of wind would elevate the trajectory of the ball? Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Let alone how to know if a gust of wind would pick up in the first place. It was a windy day, so he accounted for that. He clearly kicked the ball at or near the far post. That allows for the wind, and a possible gust of wind. But how does he do that AND allow for no wind and the wind changing directions, after the kick, all at the same time?

Kotshmot
Optimissed wrote:

Don't cling so hard to your narrative. It's a very windy day and he should be aware that it could happen. You don't do a normal, accurate kick, which relies on height. Normally, the most accurate kick is higher because you need slightly less momentum. Kick it lower and with much more momentum. High is the way to go for accuracy on a still day and every kicker should know that on a very windy day, you go for safety, so that if the worst happens, as it did, the enemy doesn't get the ball, and also you are accounting for possible wind gusts. That gust obviously wasn't outside the bounds of speculation. Definitely a lack of skill.

I don't know the sport so I dont know the specifics how to react to different wind conditions.

What I do know is that if two players make identical kicks (identical display of skill), one can get more favourable conditions by changes in the wind after the kick was made (while ball is in the air) - this would result in one player having a more beneficial outcome with identical display of skill.

Ziryab

If it’s not high enough, it gets blocked. Making a field goal is more than putting it through the goalposts. You have to get it over the defenders first.

SacrificeTheHorse

lfPatriotGames
Optimissed wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

Don't cling so hard to your narrative. It's a very windy day and he should be aware that it could happen. You don't do a normal, accurate kick, which relies on height. Normally, the most accurate kick is higher because you need slightly less momentum. Kick it lower and with much more momentum. High is the way to go for accuracy on a still day and every kicker should know that on a very windy day, you go for safety, so that if the worst happens, as it did, the enemy doesn't get the ball, and also you are accounting for possible wind gusts. That gust obviously wasn't outside the bounds of speculation. Definitely a lack of skill.

Yes, but how was he to know a gust of wind would elevate the trajectory of the ball? Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Let alone how to know if a gust of wind would pick up in the first place. It was a windy day, so he accounted for that. He clearly kicked the ball at or near the far post. That allows for the wind, and a possible gust of wind. But how does he do that AND allow for no wind and the wind changing directions, after the kick, all at the same time?

He kicked it too high. He didn't adjust properly, for the windy day. Lack of experience?? If he had been more skilfull then the opponents wouldn't have scored.

To me it seems impossible to tell. Like Ziryab said, if he kicked it lower, it would have been blocked. Isn't it possible he literally kicked it perfectly, considering all known conditions? But after the kick, a gust of wind elevated the trajectory, making the kick too high and too far off line. 

I don't know anything about football, but it seems reasonable that wind affecting a football might be similar to how it affects a golf ball. In golf, a head wind will raise the trajectory of the ball, where a tailwind lowers the trajectory. A drive into a 10mph wind will go about 10 yards less than if it had no wind. But the same wind from behind will only add about 5 yards. It doesn't make sense, but is has something to with all the forces on the ball. Aerodynamics probably.

So it seems entirely possible that in that video the kick was perfect (again I'm not one to judge but he certainly allowed for the wind) but a gust of wind not only knocked it further off line, but also elevated the trajectory. It appears the gust had a headwind to it. Wouldn't that account for the ball not going as far as it should? I don't see how it's possible to predict a swirling wind after the kick (or in my case) golf shot. 

Kotshmot
Kotshmot wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

Don't cling so hard to your narrative. It's a very windy day and he should be aware that it could happen. You don't do a normal, accurate kick, which relies on height. Normally, the most accurate kick is higher because you need slightly less momentum. Kick it lower and with much more momentum. High is the way to go for accuracy on a still day and every kicker should know that on a very windy day, you go for safety, so that if the worst happens, as it did, the enemy doesn't get the ball, and also you are accounting for possible wind gusts. That gust obviously wasn't outside the bounds of speculation. Definitely a lack of skill.

I don't know the sport so I dont know the specifics how to react to different wind conditions.

What I do know is that if two players make identical kicks (identical display of skill), one can get more favourable conditions by changes in the wind after the kick was made (while ball is in the air) - this would result in one player having a more beneficial outcome with identical display of skill.

Id like to believe this was already enough to close the topic of wind

SacrificeTheHorse
CooloutAC wrote:
SacrificeTheHorse wrote:

 

Poor play by the goalie though as well,  and he kicked the ball too high.  That was clearly not just a sudden gust of wind out of the blue,   but it seems they were playing in extremely windy conditions.  

I believe this happened in an Irish league game, so it could be said that the team who scored had 'the luck of the Irish'. Although the team which conceded were of course also Irish 🤔

mpaetz
CooloutAC wrote:

 

That fact it is impossible to tell is exactly my point.  That is one reason you can't call it lucky or unlucky,  unless you are God and you know if it was even affected by it.   What we do know is that a football team decides at their own discretion to kick in the wind,   and field goal kickers practice in such conditions and can increase their chances with skill and experience.   When something is based on luck,  this is not a possiblity.  period.

     Au contraire. If it is impossible to tell just how the wind will behave while the ball is in the air it is not possible to make an accurate adjustment. As you say, it is possible to increase your CHANCE of success, but the bottom line is you are deliberately entering random chance into the equation. Whatever the outcome, luck is involved.

mpaetz

     Exactly. You can't be very accurate in your calculations so you take your best shot and hope for a positive outcome. There is a term that describes this outcome when there is no way to tell what might happen: luck.

     And whatever color some chess players might prefer, millions of games  in chess history shows that white wins more often than black. It is an advantage that is obtained by chance.

 

RyGuySuperFly

IDK if anyone else feels this way, but when I lose and the other player says I got lucky, I find it super condescending. 

mpaetz
Optimissed wrote:

Hi, I just looked at that video four times running. He runs in from the side and makes a kind of sweep or hook kick. Inevitably, it's a slice. His foot goes right underneath the ball and the effect is to lift the ball far too high, for the conditions, which dictated that he attempted to get the ball just out of reach of the onrushing defenders and with such power that it would carry to the goal. I believe it was bad luck that the windy conditions existed but given that they did exist, there was a lack of skill. A better player might have scored.

     I would be interested in your expert opinion of just how one might kick a football to cause it to start spinning in the air, lose its forward momentum and take a sharp right turn.

mpaetz
CooloutAC wrote:
mpaetz wrote:

     Exactly. You can't be very accurate in your calculations so you take your best shot and hope for a positive outcome. There is a term that describes this outcome when there is no way to tell what might happen: luck.

     And whatever color some chess players might prefer, millions of games  in chess history shows that white wins more often than black. It is an advantage that is obtained by chance.

 

 

You admit that you can increase your chances,  yet how do you expect to do that?  You are contradicting yourself.  lol  And again,  since you admit you can increase your chances,  it is not luck since that could not be possible if it was.  

it doesn't matter,  cause there are millions that show some players win more with black.  We are not robots.  

Just to enlighten you,  the reason why most players have higher win percentage with white is because players learn white openings first since it has the power of the first move.  Take me for example,  when I first started learning chess 6 months ago i had an over 50% win percentage for white,  but 40% for black.    Now that I have started to learn black and changed my openings increased my rating alot,   in the past 90 days I have  a black win rate of 52% higher then 50% white, even though my career stats still show higher for white.   

But You also must accept the fact that even with a white advantage that does not determine success and the skill of the player is what decides the results.    Its not like losing a hand in poker to a bad flop,  or losing a dice roll,  again there is no automatic negative result from having black.  Would you really say out loud that it is always lucky to get white and always unlucky to get black?   Not if you were honest with yourself.

     Yes, you can increase your chances, but CHANCE is still involved. When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon to attempt to take over the government of Rome, he was depending on his loyal veteran army and his own skills as general and politician to accomplish his goal. Still, as he crossed he said "iacta alea est" (the die is cast). He knew unpredictable events might occur that would end up with his execution as a traitor but thought the potential rewards worth taking that CHANCE. Just consider your own poker example. In a five-card stud deal you might have two pair and the person raising you has a 2, a 3, a 5 and a 6 showing and you have a pair of 4s and third player had a 4 showing. And 1/2 the cards remain undealt. The chances are very low that the other guy has that last 4, but just how much $$ would you risk on that slim chance?

     As for your blather about why white doesn't really have an advantage, how does that explain the fact that in GM games white wins more often than black? And opening theory is based on white trying to increase their advantage while black strives to reach an equal position.

Maximillian99

explain why this forum has 146 pages please????