Is there such thing as "luck" in chess?

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Ziryab
Optimissed wrote:

I consistently lose 2% more than I win at blitz but my search for games is permanently set at an average much higher than whatever my rating is, and so on the whole I improve. It no longer breaks it down into black/white results. But I think I have a win rate of about 45% with the Sicilian.

 

Pretty close. 44%

lfPatriotGames
Optimissed wrote:
mpaetz wrote:

     Exactly. You can't be very accurate in your calculations so you take your best shot and hope for a positive outcome. There is a term that describes this outcome when there is no way to tell what might happen: luck.

     And whatever color some chess players might prefer, millions of games  in chess history shows that white wins more often than black. It is an advantage that is obtained by chance.

 

If that was his best shot, it makes me wonder what his worst shot would be like.

Let's try a thought experiment. Is that particular kicker the best kicker of a ball in the World and if not, is it inconceivable that a better player could have scored in that exact situation, through exercising greater skill??

That's a good point. So could a better player scored in that exact situation? Yes. But a much worse player could have scored too. I think a much worse player would have had better luck. Why? Because a good player would have done almost exactly the same thing this kicker did. And missed just as easily.

But a much worse kicker would have had a better chance of kicking it poorly, or wrongly. Which, in this case, increases the chances of making the goal. Since the gust of wind was unforeseeable (since the wind was also swirling and even momentarily going the opposite direction) only a terrible kick that went way off line would have scored. 

This same thing happens in golf all the time. Someone (ok, me) will think they read a putt perfectly, and know exactly what to do. Then this someone hits the putt terribly. Way off line, not even close to the intended target. But the break grabs it and it unexpectedly curves into the cup. This someone could hit it "right" a million times and it will never go in. Only a mistake results in success. I call that luck. 

BlackKaweah
Tarrasch included a luck score table in his book on Nuremberg 1896 to explain Lasker’s victory.
Mike_Kalish

If you are teeing off on a par 3, you are aiming for the green. There is no difference between the likelihood of the ball going in the hole versus stopping 6" from the hole and whether the ball goes in or stops 6" away has nothing to do with skill. So, if it goes in.... purely luck. It took skill to get it close, but it took luck to get it in. 

Kotshmot
CooloutAC wrote:
BlackKaweah wrote:
Tarrasch included a luck score table in his book on Nuremberg 1896 to explain Lasker’s victory.

 

Sounds like another guy with a huge ego and superiority complex lmao.  To attempt to explain anad account for a  force that cannot be measured or proved to even exist.   wow.  Crazily,  there is a guy in this very thread who claims that is his profession.  I would consider his company no different then enron.   

We must remember that chance and probability are not the same things as luck.  Luck is random chance,  and only from without ones own action for negative or positive results.   Any time chances for success or failure  is increased or decreased by ones own actions,  it is no longer luck as it applies to games.

"Luck as it applies to games"

You make this statement alot and mentions how luck applies to games specificly. Couple of questions:

Is there a definition of luck out there that applies to gaming that you refer to here? Or is there another reason you mention how luck is applied to gaming, as opposed to how it applies to something else?

monkey-armory

Did anyone notice this thread was started more than a decade ago.

Kotshmot
CooloutAC wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:
CooloutAC wrote:
BlackKaweah wrote:
Tarrasch included a luck score table in his book on Nuremberg 1896 to explain Lasker’s victory.

 

Sounds like another guy with a huge ego and superiority complex lmao.  To attempt to explain anad account for a  force that cannot be measured or proved to even exist.   wow.  Crazily,  there is a guy in this very thread who claims that is his profession.  I would consider his company no different then enron.   

We must remember that chance and probability are not the same things as luck.  Luck is random chance,  and only from without ones own action for negative or positive results.   Any time chances for success or failure  is increased or decreased by ones own actions,  it is no longer luck as it applies to games.

"Luck as it applies to games"

You make this statement alot and mentions how luck applies to games specificly. Couple of questions:

Is there a definition of luck out there that applies to gaming that you refer to here? Or is there another reason you mention how luck is applied to gaming, as opposed to how it applies to something else?

 

Its usually the first definition of luck that is in the dictionary.  the one that states ones own efforts or actions or abilities, efforts, force etc..  increasing chances of success. 

A general definition of luck is just simply the chance of good fortune.  But even if we break that down, as I have done for Patriot.   human force is still the determining factor.

For example we must define good fortune.  "an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that leads to a favorable outcome"    define phenomenon  "a fact or situation that is observed to exist or happen, especially one whose cause or explanation is in question".   Human force of action is not unknown and once we admit it can increase ones chances of success,  as mpaetz did regarding golfers and field goal kickers in the wind,  Then we admit it is part of the cause and not luck but skill.

The reason there are different definitions for words is usually not because they have different meanings.  Its simply just a way to apply it in context or better understand them in a more detailed and specific manner.   And as the young child in this thread once said,  and as Einstein,  Feynman, Lord Nelson,  Ronald Clarke and others have said,  if you can't explain something simply in your own words it means you don't really understand it.

 

This definition here, or how you apply it, fails because an action can have multiple producers that affect the outcome. A human force being one factor only proves that skill is involved, but it does not prove in any way that there isn't another force in play that would enforce luck. 

Kotshmot
monkey-armory wrote:

Did anyone notice this thread was started more than a decade ago.

Yes

Ziryab
monkey-armory wrote:

Did anyone notice this thread was started more than a decade ago.

 

Did you notice that I was posting then, too?

Kotshmot
CooloutAC wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:
CooloutAC wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:
CooloutAC wrote:
BlackKaweah wrote:
Tarrasch included a luck score table in his book on Nuremberg 1896 to explain Lasker’s victory.

 

Sounds like another guy with a huge ego and superiority complex lmao.  To attempt to explain anad account for a  force that cannot be measured or proved to even exist.   wow.  Crazily,  there is a guy in this very thread who claims that is his profession.  I would consider his company no different then enron.   

We must remember that chance and probability are not the same things as luck.  Luck is random chance,  and only from without ones own action for negative or positive results.   Any time chances for success or failure  is increased or decreased by ones own actions,  it is no longer luck as it applies to games.

"Luck as it applies to games"

You make this statement alot and mentions how luck applies to games specificly. Couple of questions:

Is there a definition of luck out there that applies to gaming that you refer to here? Or is there another reason you mention how luck is applied to gaming, as opposed to how it applies to something else?

 

Its usually the first definition of luck that is in the dictionary.  the one that states ones own efforts or actions or abilities, efforts, force etc..  increasing chances of success. 

A general definition of luck is just simply the chance of good fortune.  But even if we break that down, as I have done for Patriot.   human force is still the determining factor.

For example we must define good fortune.  "an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that leads to a favorable outcome"    define phenomenon  "a fact or situation that is observed to exist or happen, especially one whose cause or explanation is in question".   Human force of action is not unknown and once we admit it can increase ones chances of success,  as mpaetz did regarding golfers and field goal kickers in the wind,  Then we admit it is part of the cause and not luck but skill.

The reason there are different definitions for words is usually not because they have different meanings.  Its simply just a way to apply it in context or better understand them in a more detailed and specific manner.   And as the young child in this thread once said,  and as Einstein,  Feynman, Lord Nelson,  Ronald Clarke and others have said,  if you can't explain something simply in your own words it means you don't really understand it.

 

This definition here, or how you apply it, fails because an action can have multiple producers that affect the outcome. A human force being one factor only proves that skill is involved, but it does not prove in any way that there isn't another force in play that would enforce luck. 

 

like mpaetz,  once you admit that skill is involved,  then luck is not a deciding factor of the results or competition.   For example even though wind can affect the ball in golf,  it is an identifiable and accounted for force where better players will consistently succeed over others with skill.   A force of luck is not "enforced" i'm not sure what you mean,   but it is completely unknown,  there is no cause to identify or force to measure according to even the simplest definition of luck as I have explained.    They are separate forces of action,  and just like you can't choose when chance, action,  or results suit your narrative,  you can't choose an action and claim it as both luck and skill,  thats a contradiction.     If chances can be increased,  then that means we have identified a measurable cause,   which is the opposite of the general definition of luck.

When it comes to chess its even less applicable because there is no other element of random chance besides color selection. . 

Man I am off today.

"Better players will consistently succeed over others"

Consistently yes - But not always. Why? Because human force is not the only factor, as you mentioned wind in golf as an example. This allows the possible scenario where the player showcasing more skill loses due to external factors like wind. Wind enforces the lucky event of less skillful player winning.

Chess is a more complex discussion that we have already gone through. But to debunk your application of the definition of luck, the golf example is easier to understand.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I've probably said that on this site more than anyone. I'm glad you've taken it in. Some people even believed you can't learn but I think it's a pleasure to see how you've changed and become more authoritative. Would you mind asking tickles to get lost? I'm fed up of being the only one who knows he's a troll, with the exception of your good self and 50,000 others.

Everyone can see who is doing the trolling.

Ryanzzz

I think so
I saw a GMvs a NM and that the GM was winning, BUT he blundered and it ended up as the NM won

Ryanzzz
Kotshmot wrote:
monkey-armory wrote:

Did anyone notice this thread was started more than a decade ago.

Yes

I agree(over a decade)

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:
btickler wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

Pretend adults? Being a less intelligent person than, I now believe, either of us, you, on the other hand, do a great job of pretending. I used to think you and Coolout were about eqivalent in intelligence. You have some people convinced of that but the numbers are falling and not increasing, suggesting that you should have accepted my offer. But you couldn't resist making the "threat" that you fully intend to continue trolling and nothing anyone can say will stop you.

I didn't make any threats.  You did, and I simply told you yours would not be affecting me.  

You're a dubious judge of anyone's intelligence.

I'm not sure I understand your use of the word "dubious", since I'm a good judge and quite probably, better at it than anyone here. However, I struggle with my charitable self, regarding your own intellectual ability. You come out with such a high concentration of incorrect opinions that I have to remind myself that your emotional tangles and strong tendency towards prejudgement make you look less able than you probably are.

This is what everyone can see but you.  You cannot even begin to fathom that you are not even better than most people posting here, never mind all of them wink.png.  So to you, it is "trolling" and "insulting" every time someone doesn't acknowledge that you are the smartest person in the room.  A proclamation you make in almost every thread you engage in, eventually...but one that is unproven by your actual content over time.

I used "dubious judge of anyone's intelligence" because I don't resort to namecalling, as you do.  If you cannot recognize your own intelligence level correctly, than it stands to reason that you would be a dubious judge of others' intelligence as well.

lfPatriotGames
mikekalish wrote:

If you are teeing off on a par 3, you are aiming for the green. There is no difference between the likelihood of the ball going in the hole versus stopping 6" from the hole and whether the ball goes in or stops 6" away has nothing to do with skill. So, if it goes in.... purely luck. It took skill to get it close, but it took luck to get it in. 

Absolutely. Youtube is loaded with videos of things even more bizarre. Balls bouncing among the rocks between the green and water. Bounce towards the water, hops back towards the green, then towards the water again, then back to the green. That is sheer luck wherever it happens to land. A ball hanging on the edge of the cup for seconds. That exact same thing happened recently in a pro tournament. Hit it too soon and penalized for hitting a moving ball, wait too long and penalized for waiting too long. His putt eventually fell on it's own, where a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of a millimeter made the difference. It was probably a slight gust of wind or the weight of the ball that made it go in. Or even a blade of grass that happened to be growing in one direction vs. the other. All those things are just luck. 

One of the most cruel instances of luck is when a golfer hits the ball too good. A shot that hits the flagstick on the fly will have the spin severely altered. So what would normally be a good result is instead often a result that ends up over the green or in a hazard. All because it was hit too close to the hole (the whole point of golf). 

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I asked you not to mention me or reply to me and I would do the same for you. I've asked you that before. Anyone with any intelligence would take that offer. But you said that you will not be limited in how you post and to whom. Well, the only reason you want to reply to me is to troll. You should have taken the offer, though. Because you seem to imagine that it only applies to you. Perhaps you can do what you want and others have to do what you say. I'm not the only one who knows you're crazy.

As I mentioned before, you have proven incapable of holding to the offer you made before.  You can't seem to go a day without mentioning me in a barbed aside to someone.  Why would anyone accept an offer knowing that the other party will immediately break it anyway?  Regardless, your offer was BS...essentially amounting to "you don't talk to me *or talk to anyone else in a way I don't like*, and I will not talk about you".  Pretty funny since you try to claim I'm the big bully of the forums or something.  Does the logic of presenting that I am the forum's #1 archvillain, while trying to also tell me I'm not capable of XYZ actually work in your head?

You keep trying to wield your imagined silent majority wink.png

Jalex13
This argument continues in so many threads! What will be the outcome of these things?
llama36
Optimissed wrote:

all you have is negative evidence.

So you're saying the fact that your claims are thoroughly unsubstantiated is a point in your favor.

You're ridiculous.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

Incorrect.  You've always point blank refused to do a deal. Actually, that means you're a liar, which we know. And completely ridiculous.

The way you keep adding sentences ("and another thing...") is a testament to why you aren't a person to try and make any deal with.  Just give it a rest.  My position has never changed.  

It's funny how you pick up techniques from other posters wink.png.

Ziryab
Jalex13 wrote:
This argument continues in so many threads! What will be the outcome of these things?

 

Points on the profile page.