Exactly. You can't be very accurate in your calculations so you take your best shot and hope for a positive outcome. There is a term that describes this outcome when there is no way to tell what might happen: luck.
And whatever color some chess players might prefer, millions of games in chess history shows that white wins more often than black. It is an advantage that is obtained by chance.
If that was his best shot, it makes me wonder what his worst shot would be like.
Let's try a thought experiment. Is that particular kicker the best kicker of a ball in the World and if not, is it inconceivable that a better player could have scored in that exact situation, through exercising greater skill??
That's a good point. So could a better player scored in that exact situation? Yes. But a much worse player could have scored too. I think a much worse player would have had better luck. Why? Because a good player would have done almost exactly the same thing this kicker did. And missed just as easily.
But a much worse kicker would have had a better chance of kicking it poorly, or wrongly. Which, in this case, increases the chances of making the goal. Since the gust of wind was unforeseeable (since the wind was also swirling and even momentarily going the opposite direction) only a terrible kick that went way off line would have scored.
This same thing happens in golf all the time. Someone (ok, me) will think they read a putt perfectly, and know exactly what to do. Then this someone hits the putt terribly. Way off line, not even close to the intended target. But the break grabs it and it unexpectedly curves into the cup. This someone could hit it "right" a million times and it will never go in. Only a mistake results in success. I call that luck.
I consistently lose 2% more than I win at blitz but my search for games is permanently set at an average much higher than whatever my rating is, and so on the whole I improve. It no longer breaks it down into black/white results. But I think I have a win rate of about 45% with the Sicilian.
Pretty close. 44%