Yes. Kirsan will lose.
Kasparov has the edge in the FIDE election now

Inside sources say IRS US Department of Treasury expected to revoke KC non profit tax exempt status over illegal use of non profit funds
Inside sources say IRS US Department of Treasury expected to revoke KC non profit tax exempt status over illegal use of non profit funds
Inside sources are saying that Kasparov is beating Ilyumzhinov at his own game right now, namely in spreading under (and over) the table money to the various voting delegations and working his personal tree of connections in the political chess world.
Kasparov can do this partly because he has vastly wealthy backers such as Sinquefeld and Middle Eastern oil sheiks.
For those of you who have been practically salivating at the deposition of Ilyumzhinov, this year it stands a good chance of happening. None of Kirsan's other opponents over the years have been able to play the favors, bribery & connections game in any competent way.
Kasparov, however, can. He is no starry-eyed idealist.