Luck in Chess

Chessmaster and two time world backgammon champion Bill Robertie makes a strong argument that there is luck in chess and compares the probability factor in it to backgammon.  Very interesting.  It starts at the 35:41 mark in the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkJVWkhqaDw&t=35m41s

There is also luck in ordering a pizza.  It's not much of a claim.  Will the pizza have the toppings I ordered?  Will it be delivered at the right time?

Does this guy really believe what he is saying?

Chess is not a probablity game like poker and back gammon. If you play poker against a much better player, you might get a straight on the first draw and win. In chess, a much better player is very unlikely to hang a queen or rook.

BTW, your thread title is misleading. He is talking about probablity. You are talking about fortune.

"He is talking about probablity. You are talking about fortune."

If you don't understand probability, then it is luck

I guess it's true, ignorance can be bliss. 

lol, there's hardly any luck in chess

I would like to blame luck if things aren't going my way, but I...I can't.

I usually blame the cat.

More apropo to chess  - Bill Robertie was at one time or other the Mass. State Champion, US speed chess champion, a member of the Harvard chess team and well known as a blindfold player.

I used to have his book, Winning Chess Tactics.  It wasn't extremely deep, but it was well presented and fun to go through.

With credentials like that, you'd think he would know better.

Yeah, probability is in everything.

The difference is there is no random chance element in chess like there is in cards or dice.

Sure there's luck in chess. Like he said, regarding performance, you may or may not find the right move regardless of your knowledge... but that's still personal performance. A free throw shooter shoots 80% because he's not perfect, just like sometimes I miss a move I would normally see, but that's not luck like you find in cards or dice, where you have no control.

If I challenge you to a game, could you do this a good 30 - 40% of the time for me. 

Yeah. If you listen to the audio, when he is talking about this suppsed similarity between chess and backgammon where players in both games with similar differences in skill, he is not talking about probablity. He is talking about skill to deal with the probablity levels.

Someone who is good at backgammon, for example, has lots of experience dealing with the probabilities of the dice. He knows how to handle when he doesn't get the best combinations he needs and can redistribut the values in a way that prepares him for when probability swings his way. Same for poker.

In backgammon and poker, the dice and cards are your enemy. They have no knowledge of you and can do nothing to try and undermind your attempts to win. In chess, on the other hand, you ahve a living breathing opponent who is determined to make you lose and has the ability to take advantage of your mistakes.

This truly is NOT probability.

Now, I'm certain once Europe and North America wake this thread is going to grow like wildfire. We've all seen this type of thread before.

But, before we start talking about probability and luck, lets ALL agree on a definition for luck.

This alone will easily fill the first 20 or so pages with banter and speculation. 

i guess europe still sleeps :PPP 

Carlsen vs Anand @ sochi round six... Carlsen's 26th moce is a blunders but Anand fail to see it...He has plenty of time and if i recall correctly spectators saw that... Can u call that luck... I guess so... 

"Can u call that luck... I guess so... "

No, that would have been serendipity.

At my level, there is some luck in chess. Never happened to you to make a move without realising you leave your knight hanged and then when your rival doesnt take it you realise that there was a tactical motive that avoided the knight to be taken just by pure luck?

at our levels u can call it lack of skill 

Tiger i had to search for the meaning of serendipity... i think its another way to say luck :)

The difference lies in encountering a fortunate circumstance (often dealing with a problem), whereas luck is just thrown at you like a present.

http://derekcheshire.com/2013/02/26/luck-or-serendipity-what-is-the-difference/

luck and chess cant go together!

Well it was either luck that I made a person resign (material was equal, he had the passed pawn, and i magically got a free rook and made material equal after he made me sac my rook), especially since that guy was a 1400., almost going 1500.