Luck in Chess

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leiph18
Elubas wrote:

"In this case the game ends with the less skilled and less knowledgeable player winning the game."

Yes, but that doesn't mean the game itself was probabilistic. The less skilled player made the better decisions, and had clearer thought, for that game. If we wanted to measure overall skill though, we would want the players to play in various different types of positions and so forth. Besides, a player is responsible for using their knowledge correctly; if they don't that's their own problem.

The game itself wasn't probabilistic:  I agree

It's the player's fault for using information incorrectly:  I agree

I want to make the claim though that their performance (not chess itself, but their performance) was not based on knowledge or skill and therefore contained some element of chance.

uri65
Elubas wrote:

But yeah, I think there are problems with assuming that any time you merely think something will happen without knowing, some "magical" element of chance is added to that thing. If this were the case, even math itself could have an element of chance, if you're "unsure about which formula represents the situation accurately" or something. Humans can't turn something into chance merely by acting dumb :)

Math is different because during exam you can double-check your results.  I've never failed a math exam and there are thousands or millions of students who never failed. But there is no single chess player who has never lost.

By the way in math your scientific results are scrutinized by your peers and quite often mistakes or gaps are found. But math is a search for truth and such mistakes don't matter for the future. Chess in a game, a competition and your mistakes and losses can't be corrected - they are in databases forever.

MuhammadAreez10

I guess it is resolved! Chess has no luck.

We might argue if luck exists...

uri65
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MuhammadAreez10

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Elubas

"A coin flip by your definition has no chance. All the information is in front of you to calculate which side it will land on, it's just you can't do it in that short amount of time."

How about calling the flip before the person actually flips it. Or maybe more precisely, if you only know the logical statement "A or B" is true, it is literally impossible to rationally infer whether "A" is true, "B" is true, or if both are true just from that information. Poker, I mean, is basically like that at a certain point -- you can say that there is a 1 in 7 chance of catching a straight on the river or something based on your cards, what cards will give you a straight, etc., but you can't be any more sure than that no matter how smart you are, besides looking at the actual deck of course.

Chess on the other hand would be like 54,000 premises, that from any position can be used to derive the result. In theory it can be done, but people won't have the skill to always use the information properly.

uri65
MuhammadAreez10 wrote:

I guess it is resolved! Chess has no luck.

We might argue if luck exists...

If there is probability there is luck. When you play someone of same level and skill it's often first serious mistake that decides the game. If your opponent is the first one to make it - you are lucky.

leiph18
Elubas wrote:

"A coin flip by your definition has no chance. All the information is in front of you to calculate which side it will land on, it's just you can't do it in that short amount of time."

How about calling the flip before the person actually flips it. Or maybe more precisely, if you only know the logical statement "A or B" is true, it is literally impossible to rationally infer whether "A" is true, "B" is true, or if both are true just from that information. Poker, I mean, is basically like that at a certain point -- you can say that there is a 1 in 7 chance of catching a straight on the river or something based on your cards, what cards will give you a straight, etc., but you can't be any more sure than that no matter how smart you are, besides looking at the actual deck of course.

Chess on the other hand would be like 54,000 premises, that from any position can be used to derive the result. In theory it can be done, but people won't have the skill to always use the information properly.

In theory it can be done?

In theory I can watch them shuffle the deck, memorize the card positions, and play perfectly.

Even if not right away, over the course of many hands, I can memorize the cards.

If this sounds ridiculous, please recall what you're claiming about a perfect chess game Wink

MuhammadAreez10

Oh man! I'm not lucky then. I've spent an hour making you understand. Gawwwd!

leiph18
MuhammadAreez10 wrote:

Oh man! I'm not lucky then. I've spent an hour making you understand. Gawwwd!

Only an hour, sounds lucky to me Tongue Out

RG1951

        I thought it was somewhat fortunate when an online opponent of mine missed what was effectively my fool's mate the other day. That's an example of luck, I suppose.

MuhammadAreez10

Uri65 hasn't understood yet.

Let's argue luck doesn't exist.

Elubas

I don't know I might respond to you tomorrow or something leiph haha.

leiph18

Ok, don't worry about it :)

leiph18
MuhammadAreez10 wrote:

Let's argue luck doesn't exist.

Fun, but I don't know enough about that stuff. Chaos theory, determinism, quantum physics, and all that.

MuhammadAreez10

Even I don't know that stuff, but can have a reasonable argument.

leiph18

It seems like determinism is true, and that there is no luck.

But last time this discussion happened some people pointed out ideas I wasn't aware of, and it seemed like it wasn't such a sure thing.

adumbrate

I played better than you because of luck

Ancares
MuhammadAreez10 escribió:

I guess it is resolved! Chess has no luck.

We might argue if luck exists...

Consider the following example:

I program a computer to play chess, with random movement.

If this computer plays against a computer that is programed the same way, wouldn´t it be pure luck the result of the game?

My 4 year old son plays chess this way, almost ramdonmly. So we can say there is a lot of luck involved in his games against other 4 year olds that play the same way.

When we learn to play, we stop making all random movements, but sometimes he have to chose between 2 or 3 options and we evaluate those options to be equal (at least this happens to me). So sometimes I choose 1 option almost ramdonly, and here you can be lucky (if for example you choose the best option without knowing).

I´m not a grand master in chess, but given a position there is a chance that I make the best movement even without knowing what I´m doing. If I choose the best movement for the wrong reasons, isn´t that lucky?

Ancares
Elubas escribió:

"In this case the game ends with the less skilled and less knowledgeable player winning the game."

Yes, but that doesn't mean the game itself was probabilistic. The less skilled player made the better decisions, and had clearer thought, for that game. If we wanted to measure overall skill though, we would want the players to play in various different types of positions and so forth. Besides, a player is responsible for using their knowledge correctly; if they don't that's their own problem.

If they don´t that´s their own problem, but still can get lucky.

If I have a  map and decide not to look at it at a crossroad, I can be lucky and make the right choice by flipping a coin.

If I have 2 candidate movements, and I dont have the skill to determine that one is a blunder and the other is a good movement, and I make my decision flipping a coin, I can be lucky an choose the good one.

So yes, you can be lucky at chess.