Very interesting subject. I was looking for the updated versions of that study, thanks for sharing!
About the odds, I think there were some numbers provided by Kaufmann in the Rybka forums, at the time Rybka was playing GMs with pawn, pawn&move and the exchange odds. 500 points look pretty decent to me, but this probably should get higher as the rating of the stronger side increases. I doubt Kramnik would survive against a 2285 rated player with a piece down.
Consider an 800 rated scholastic player who drops a knight for no compensation against a similarly rated opponent, how much will being a knight down effect his odds of winning? Clearly when a master makes such a blunder, resignation is justified, but when a beginner does this it's not such a big deal.
Ratings are simply statisitcs. They try to predict the outcome based on your past preformances. A 100 points difference gives the higher rated opponent a 64% chance. 200 points 76%, 300 85%, 400 92% etc. (You can check these figures here if you'd like).
I was reading a blog of a master rated in the 2300s who would give knight odds at his club to class A players. He said at about 500 points difference is when the knight odds started to break even for him, meaning, the lower rated opponent could score about 50%. This means at approximately master level a knight for no compensation will drop their rating about 500 points. It was a long time ago but I may remember reading something about sub 1000 players who drop a knight effectivly loose only 50 rating points.
Matej Guid and Ivan Bratko compared the top players of all time by analysing their best games with Rybka and finding the % of error according to Rybka. There are many many breakdowns of the statistics they gather, but the most accurate player (considering all the selected games for that player, not the single most accurate game for example) they concluded was Capablanca. You can view it here.
What's interesting is it shows even the "worst" world champs blundering less than the worth of a pawn over an entier game -- also their moves agree with Rybka sometimes as much as 70+% of the time! (I mean really, you might as well be playing a CPU). For such world class players I'm sure even pawn odds would drop thier rating hundreds of points.
Has anyone had a similar experiance as the master who gave knight odds? How many pawns do you think you'd have to give up to loose to someone rated hundreds of points lower than yourself? Let me know if anyone here has come across something similar. It would be interesting to have a relation between material and rating, or, how much a pawn is worth at each class of player.