Perfect Chess: e4 or d4 ?

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lchiban

I know I might be getting ahead of myself here for discussing perfect chess when we're still hundreds of years too early to create 32-man tablebases. But if ever chess will be solved, do you think that the first move will be e4 or d4? Or maybe a different one (Nf3, c4, b3 etc.)? Feel free to discuss.

SJFG

It will be both! I'm 99.99% sure that with perfect play the game ends in a draw. So if a move is made that doesn't give the other side a win, then it could qualify as a "perfect" move. 1. e4, 1. d4, 1. c4, 1. Nf3 and quite a few other moves don't lose, and are therefore "perfect."

This is one of the reasons I'm not too worried about chess being solved. There will be sooooooo many moves that are okay to play that nobody will be able to remember them (at least OTB). And to be honest, I almost think that being told that a certain position is +0.45 is more useful than being told that with perfect play the position is drawn.

lchiban
SJFG wrote:

It will be both! I'm 99.99% sure that with perfect play the game ends in a draw. So if a move is made that doesn't give the other side a win, then it could qualify as a "perfect" move. 1. e4, 1. d4, 1. c4, 1. Nf3 and quite a few other moves don't lose, and are therefore "perfect."

This is one of the reasons I'm not too worried about chess being solved. There will be sooooooo many moves that are okay to play that nobody will be able to remember them (at least OTB). And to be honest, I almost think that being told that a certain position is +0.45 is more useful than being told that with perfect play the position is drawn.

The game transitions very differently with the first move. Though some first moves (like Nf3) can transpose into Queen's Pawn games.

My point is that perfect play deals with the "best" possible outcome for that player (white) regardless of the response by the opponent. Now I'm not claiming that only one move can lead to perfect chess, but the idea is that two different first moves (e4 and d4) leads to very different games. e4 most likely leading to sharp and open tactical games while d4 leading to safe and less-risky positional games. By that, I'm asking what might be the "perfect" approach to white's first game. Of course, I too do not know the answer to that. Even chess engines evaluate both e4 and d4 almost the same value.

On a side note, I've checked 365chess' master's database and found this:

                                                                Winning Percentage

                     # of Games                  White              Draw             Black

1. e4                214,227                     30.5%              48.3%            21.1%

2. d4                199,722                     30.6%              50.1%            19.3%

 

Of course, these puny human masters still haven't solved chess so these stats might just be garbage (or maybe a slight glimpse of perfect chess).