Question for a 2000+ fide player

                   Black to move

Would one have to calculate from the first move to the so to say bottom to find out whethere 1..d5 is a losing move or can one aquire advanced assessment with minimum calculation to almost be certain of the outcome?

I never ask silly questions. I found a way, an advanced assessment of development to determine if entering a force with 1..d5 is losing or not for Black.

anything other than d5 is losing because white will do d5 next move and win a piece. So u dont have to calculate if d5 is losing because it might lose, but every other move loses too anyway. Its your best shot. Besides its pretty easy to calculate that move. 3 moves deep and u see that it works

 1..exd4 2.nxd4 Qc7 - this is not losing. But it`s not the logic "all other options are losing" I am after here. I discovered an advanced assessment (takes 1 minute) that I can apply and be with 99% certain that you should not enter thie sequence, even thow this sequence has a very tricky move like a sacrifice of a piece for three pawns.

Let me say it as clear as I can. I discovered a way to assess in one minute with minimum effort if one should enter a forced sequence of moves or not for objective and practical(strong skill required to find the move) reasons. I made this thread to see if this is known among strong players 2000+ fide, because I have not seen this assessment in any book and I have seen many books. So with this advanced assessment I avoid making a mistake of "getting aggressive in the wrong moment" and can be sure when my opponent enteres a force sequence of moves if it was a bad idea or not without calculation almost anything, with just assessment. I already tested this assessment in many different position with forced sequence of moves like in this position and it works, so please, some one, say there is a way, I don`t want to feel like a genius(the first person to discover).

It might help to tell your assesment :p.

And there is always pattern reconising ofcourse.

i suspect given your on line rating the advanced assessment doesn't add up to a can of beans 

>:)

Have you thought with your bean that I discovered it a few hours ago and posted it here immidiatly?

1...d5 is certainly critical, but I need to calculate hard to assess this move, either as white or black 

 Oh, thx for your honesty! Now,  can an NM respond?

I completely agree with hicetnunc.

Black has clearly two candidate moves, either 1...exd4 to avoid losing a piece by 2.d5, or 1...d5, breaking open the center and leading to wild complications.

Some beginning of such calculations might look like this:

* Black may love to be able to play d5, because this could tend to give him a lot of activity. But is it really possible tactically? There might be quite some things hanging in the center.

* black's pawn on d5 is defended three times and attacked three times. For the time being, this might seem okay.

* white can attack it once more with tempo by playing dxe5 at some point, but black can respond with Nxe5, discovering the queen's path to defend the pawn once more with the queen on d8. So this still may seem okay.

* In lines such as 1...d5 2.dxe5 Nxe5,white could try to kick the knight with tempo by playing 3.f4. But Black has time to counter with 3...Neg4, hitting the undefended bishop on e3 with tempo.

* Also, white could attack and pin the knight on e5 with 3.Bf4. But black seems to be able to defend that knight with 3...Qd6, without much damage (you may note that here, the bishop is obstructing f4 so white cannot play f3-f4 here, so you may get the next idea of ...)

* white has an interesting try for improvement in 1...d5 2.dxe5 Nxe5 3.Bd4!? because now, 3...Qd6 fails to 4.f4, kicking the knight e5, followed by 5.e5, winning a piece with a pawn fork. And moves such as 3...Qc7 or 3...Ne8 just seem to lose the pawn on d5 or more.

* But maybe black still has a resource there: He could sacrifice a piece and take two pawns for it with (1...d5 2.dxe5 Nxe5 3.Bd4!?)

3...Nxe4!? 4.fxe4 dxc4, which could give black quite some activity for the sacrificed material. This is an example for a variation which is not only quite difficult to calculate, but for which it is even quite difficult to assess the resulting positions!

And this is just the beginning of such a calculation! Black may need to check quite some other possibilities and move orders, for example with white taking first on d5 in various ways. Most probably, at some point, black will have to abort his calculations and decide whether he will be daring enough to enter the wild complications after 1...d5, being confident that he will be able to master these complications at least as well as his opponent, and thinking to have good reasons to hope that he will see more and make less inaccuracies in these wild positions than his opponent will.

A 2000+ player, before daring to play this against another 2000+ player, will make sure he has calculated quite a bit before feeling confident enough or daring enough to play 1...d5 here.

I think what the OP is driving at, is how did you isolate d5 as a move to consider over all other legal moves in the position?

Finding that move as a candidate move is not hard at all. White is threatening to win a piece with d4-d5, and black cannot open up any retreat squares for the bishop e6. So black has to either eliminate that pawn with 1...exd4 or play 1...d5 himself.

The hard part is calculating and evaluating the wild things that can happen after 1...d5

Even a CM does not know, that`s nice. How long, 20 min you need? To do analysis and stuff, yeah. Well, ONE MINUTE! Think about that.

Imagine entering ANY forced sequence from simplicity 0 to max and in a minute with basically just assessing you can know (not see why, just know) if it`s safe to enter it. There is no 100% certainty if you will win it, one can only be sure in a "looks like" manner that you win, but 100% sure (before I said 99% but with more testing it`s all 100) that YOU will not lose.(the person that entered it does not lose to be more precise).

uhohspaghettio, what you said is how to count let`s say 4 moves a head(you did`t mention that how many captures needs to be counted too and if there is a "check") Even this needs exact checking to be sure even thow it`s not difficult to just calculate it.

I am talking about taking a difficult position like the one I posted here and in 1 minute without calculation, just assessment basically to be sure that you don`t lose or lose. But if you win that can`t be said sure with just assessment.

get_over_here, of course it can be possible to estimate that probably 1...d5 can be a working move against many opponents. I may play this move in a blitz game, guessing that it may be good enough to give me interesting chances, without much calculation.

(Depending on how well I am at home in such Pirc-like structures, I may even know and feel to a quite certain degree whether I will like to play 1...d5 or not.)

In a tournament game against a player of my strength, however, I will invest quite some time to make sure i do not miss a forced losing sequence that he will be able to find.

Counting the defenders/attackers is only the beginning of my trick. It goes deeper and wider than just that. But it`s very simple once one knows it and does not take more than one minute.

There is no such way to achieve that without knowing the position from opening preparation or thorough calculation. You can develop your feeling for some types of positions by studying and analysing similar positions, but you will need to be able to check things with concrete calculation.

If your opponent is strong enough, he is likely to find the refutation if there is one.

 Exactly. Imagine being able to do it in 1 min with no effort. And not just estimate that it gives practical chances or MAYBE it`s not losing. Talking about 1 min and 100%! Wish I could prove it but you will just say I setted it up on an engine.

Now I am beginning to think you are merely joking.

Ok dude, so you're talking about this brilliant assessment thing that can help national masters around the world spend only one minut and see if a move is good.

Are you going to elaborate, or are you just going to keep it secret so we can all get back to our.. ancient, primitive methods?