True or False Chess is a Draw with Best Play from Both Sides

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DiogenesDue
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

Do you know what a hyperbole is?

It's just hyperbole, not "a" hyperbole wink.png.

Legendary_Basilisk
btickler wrote:
NikkiLikeChikki wrote:
97% draw is still 3% decisive. You only need one line to reject the null hypothesis of “draw.”

And eliminating 97% of games (ever position therein) still leaves over 10^40 possibilities for a winning line.

It also leaves ~10^42 possibilities for a drawing line.

Legendary_Basilisk
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

Anyone who believes that chess is a forced win in the computer age is delusional. Modern computers have proven that chess is a draw. In the top levels of correspondence chess(where engines are allowed) there is a 97% draw rate. 

If chess were a forced draw, why isn't the draw rate 99.99999% or even 100%? 97% sure leaves a lot of room for some other possibility. 

Obviously because Modern engines and correspondence players aren't perfect.

Yes. Which means they aren't performing best play. Which means it's  not proven. You said it was. 

Do you know what a hyperbole is?

It's just hyperbole, not "a" hyperbole .

English isn't my native language. 

DiogenesDue
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
btickler wrote:
NikkiLikeChikki wrote:
97% draw is still 3% decisive. You only need one line to reject the null hypothesis of “draw.”

And eliminating 97% of games (ever position therein) still leaves over 10^40 possibilities for a winning line.

It also leaves ~10^42 possibilities for a drawing line.

Yes, there are countless possibilities both ways.  Which helps whose side of this argument?  The side saying there's no forced draw.  Thanks for playing.

DiogenesDue
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

Do you know what a hyperbole is?

It's just hyperbole, not "a" hyperbole .

English isn't my native language. 

I'm just informing you, not attacking you.

Legendary_Basilisk
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
btickler wrote:
NikkiLikeChikki wrote:
97% draw is still 3% decisive. You only need one line to reject the null hypothesis of “draw.”

And eliminating 97% of games (ever position therein) still leaves over 10^40 possibilities for a winning line.

It also leaves ~10^42 possibilities for a drawing line.

Yes, there are countless possibilities both ways.  Which helps whose side of this argument?  The side saying there's no forced draw.  Thanks for playing.

There are 33 times more possibilities for a drawing line than for a winning line.

DiogenesDue
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
btickler wrote:
NikkiLikeChikki wrote:
97% draw is still 3% decisive. You only need one line to reject the null hypothesis of “draw.”

And eliminating 97% of games (ever position therein) still leaves over 10^40 possibilities for a winning line.

It also leaves ~10^42 possibilities for a drawing line.

Yes, there are countless possibilities both ways.  Which helps whose side of this argument?  The side saying there's no forced draw.  Thanks for playing.

There are 33 times more possibilities for a drawing line than for a winning line.

...which is meaningless when you are talking about 10^40 possible games wink.png.  Even if a draw were 33 *trillion* times more likely it would still leave over 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 ways for there to be a forced winning line.  Try to grasp the numbers here.  All the games ever played in the history of the planet by humans and engines alike are like one speck of sand on a beach.

Legendary_Basilisk
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
btickler wrote:
NikkiLikeChikki wrote:
97% draw is still 3% decisive. You only need one line to reject the null hypothesis of “draw.”

And eliminating 97% of games (ever position therein) still leaves over 10^40 possibilities for a winning line.

It also leaves ~10^42 possibilities for a drawing line.

Yes, there are countless possibilities both ways.  Which helps whose side of this argument?  The side saying there's no forced draw.  Thanks for playing.

There are 33 times more possibilities for a drawing line than for a winning line.

...which is meaningless when you are talking about 10^40 possible games .  Even if a draw were 33 *trillion* times more likely it would still leave over 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 ways for there to be a forced winning line.  Try to grasp the numbers here.  All the games ever played in the history of the planet by humans and engines alike are like one speck of sand on a beach.

The proof of the earth being round is meaningless when you are talking about an infinite amount of possibilities wink.png.  Even if a round earth were 33 *septillion* times more likely it would still leave an infinite amount of ways for there to be a flat earth.  Try to grasp the numbers here.  All the possibilities ever envisioned in the history of the planet by humans are like a speck of sand on an infinite beach.

NikkiLikeChikki
Way more than 10^40 possible games. I think that 10^40 number only includes “plausible” games; that is, games that don’t include nonsense moves. I’m pretty sure in training games A0 played a lot of nonsense games as it was trying to learn the rules.

Jeez this is a pointless thread. I think I’ll go argue with some religious person about whether or not Jesus really walked on water or maybe some three year old over whether or not Rudolph should be counted as a legitimate reindeer.
DiogenesDue
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

The proof of the earth being round is meaningless when you are talking about an infinite amount of possibilities .  Even if a round earth were 33 *septillion* times more likely it would still leave an infinite amount of ways for there to be a flat earth.  Try to grasp the numbers here.  All the possibilities ever envisioned in the history of the planet by humans are like a speck of sand on an infinite beach.

Nope.  Sorry.  That doesn't follow.  Learn to posit your equivalences logically.  Don't Tucker Carlson it.

Legendary_Basilisk
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

The proof of the earth being round is meaningless when you are talking about an infinite amount of possibilities .  Even if a round earth were 33 *septillion* times more likely it would still leave an infinite amount of ways for there to be a flat earth.  Try to grasp the numbers here.  All the possibilities ever envisioned in the history of the planet by humans are like a speck of sand on an infinite beach.

Nope.  Sorry.  That doesn't follow.  Learn to posit your equivalences logically.

There is no difference, just like there is a 99.999999999999999999999999% chance that the earth is round, there is a 97% percent chance that chess is a draw. 

DiogenesDue
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

The proof of the earth being round is meaningless when you are talking about an infinite amount of possibilities .  Even if a round earth were 33 *septillion* times more likely it would still leave an infinite amount of ways for there to be a flat earth.  Try to grasp the numbers here.  All the possibilities ever envisioned in the history of the planet by humans are like a speck of sand on an infinite beach.

Nope.  Sorry.  That doesn't follow.  Learn to posit your equivalences logically.

There is no difference, just like there is a 99.999999999999999999999999% chance that the earth is round, there is a 97% percent chance that chess is a draw. 

This shows a distinct lack of understanding.  The only way the earth is not round(-ish, since it's an oval actually due to spin) is if the Universe is a simulation, but then all human beings can do is work with the physical laws of the universe we can perceive...and in that universe, the earth is proven to be round (and by both mathematical and empirical evidence), and chess is not proven to be a forced draw (by anything). 

There's no equivalence unless you are willfully embracing a higher level of ignorance to get there.  Which has, admittedly, become a common tactic in the forums...so maybe I should not be surprised anymore wink.png.

Legendary_Basilisk
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

The proof of the earth being round is meaningless when you are talking about an infinite amount of possibilities .  Even if a round earth were 33 *septillion* times more likely it would still leave an infinite amount of ways for there to be a flat earth.  Try to grasp the numbers here.  All the possibilities ever envisioned in the history of the planet by humans are like a speck of sand on an infinite beach.

Nope.  Sorry.  That doesn't follow.  Learn to posit your equivalences logically.

There is no difference, just like there is a 99.999999999999999999999999% chance that the earth is round, there is a 97% percent chance that chess is a draw. 

This shows a distinct lack of understanding.  The only way the earth is not round(-ish, since it's an oval actually due to spin) is if the Universe is a simulation, but then all human beings can do is work with the physical laws of the universe we can perceive...and in that universe, the earth is proven to be round, and chess is not proven to be a forced draw.

Wrong, it's possible that the world was created 1 nanosecond ago and the earth is actually flat and our memories never happened. I could come up with bullsh!t possibilities all day, all of which are unimagenly unlikely, but still possible. 

DiogenesDue
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

Wrong, it's possible that the world was created 1 nanosecond ago and the earth is actually flat and our memories never happened. I could come up with bullsh!t possibilities all day, all of which are unimagenly unlikely, but still possible. 

You're just being contrary for it's own sake.  That would still fall under "all human beings can do is work with the physical laws of the universe we can perceive".

You still lose, Sherlock, because if your premise is correct, then nothing can be absolutely proven...including chess being a forced draw.  You're not helping yourself here.

Legendary_Basilisk
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

Wrong, it's possible that the world was created 1 nanosecond ago and the earth is actually flat and our memories never happened. I could come up with bullsh!t possibilities all day, all of which are unimagenly unlikely, but still possible. 

You're just being contrary for it's own sake.  That would still fall under "all human beings can do is work with the physical laws of the universe we can perceive".

You still lose, Sherlock, because if your logic is correct, then nothing can be absolutely proven...including chess being a forced draw.  You're not helping yourself here.

I never said that chess was proved to be a draw, I said that it's almost certainly a draw. Since you are incapable of comprehending probability, I'll make it simple for you: Lets say that there is a game where there's a 97% percent chance that you lose 1000$ and a 3% chance that you win 1000$, would you play?  

DiogenesDue
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

I never said that chess was proved to be a draw, I said that it's almost certainly a draw. Since you are incapable of comprehending probability, I'll make it simple for you: Lets say that there is a game where there's a 97% percent chance that you lose 1000$ and a 3% chance that you win 1000$, would you play?  

Obviously not, but then, that's not what the issue currently being discussed is about.  Nobody has said it's not most likely that chess would be a forced draw if there were a proof.  But, there isn't one, nor is there going to be one in any currently foreseeable future.  

P.S. There's at least a 70% of a 90% of an 80% chance that I understand more about probability than you do.

Legendary_Basilisk
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

I never said that chess was proved to be a draw, I said that it's almost certainly a draw. Since you are incapable of comprehending probability, I'll make it simple for you: Lets say that there is a game where there's a 97% percent chance that you lose 1000$ and a 3% chance that you win 1000$, would you play?  

Obviously not, but then, that's not what the issue currently being discussed is about.

It is. Proving that chess is a draw is impossible, but its overwhelmingly likley that chess is a draw.

DiogenesDue
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:
btickler wrote:
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

I never said that chess was proved to be a draw, I said that it's almost certainly a draw. Since you are incapable of comprehending probability, I'll make it simple for you: Lets say that there is a game where there's a 97% percent chance that you lose 1000$ and a 3% chance that you win 1000$, would you play?  

Obviously not, but then, that's not what the issue currently being discussed is about.

It is. Proving that chess is a draw is impossible, but its overwhelmingly likley that chess is a draw.

Thanks for agreeing then.  Chess is not a forced draw or win.  You are just arguing over the value of "overwhelmingly".  But that is largely immaterial because of the orders of magnitude involved, as already pointed out.

You might also want to go back and change your original post where you state that computers have proven chess is a draw.  Thanks for admitting you were inaccurate.

lfPatriotGames
Legendary_Basilisk wrote:

Anyone who believes that chess is a forced win in the computer age is delusional. Modern computers have proven that chess is a draw. In the top levels of correspondence chess(where engines are allowed) there is a 97% draw rate. 

When you say chess has been proven to be a draw, what do you mean exactly? Because computers have not done it.

ponz111

Forget the 97% that was apparently a percentage of draws in high level correspondence chess, It means something as when humans and computers get stronger--there are more and more draws./.

At the VERY HIGHEST level of correspondence chess we see 100% draws. Please refer to the correspondence tournament which started Sept 3th 2017, This tournament had only the very best correspondence players. There was an 8 way tie for first place as ALL the games were drawn!

Each player played 7 games--so as to play all of his opposition and each player scored 7 draws or

3 1/2 points. r 

Reference MT von OOsterom,  Joop van Oosterom Memorial  [hjope someone prints this article]  Because of this tournament and other games--players are realizing they cannot win a game vs best opposition  One more piece of evidence that chess is a draw.