What the stats really say…

I’ve been a member since 2020 and I’m fascinated by what my chess stats really tell me about my game (if anything). For context, I tend to play three or four rapid games per day. My rating graph for rapid games shows repeating cycles of peaks and troughs with a general trend of progress over time (so the peaks are gradually getting higher and the troughs don’t go as low as they used to). I’m tempted to read into this that my chess progression happens in cycles and each cycle (generally two or three months) sees me reach a new peak before I seemingly tire and my rating decreases. Perhaps I can even extrapolate from this that my mind works in similar cycles of progression…

BUT… does this really tell me anything at all about my own game (and indeed my mind) or does it really just show how the ratings algorithm works? 

I’m guessing if it says more about the algorithm than my own game then the shape of my graph will look similar to any other users on chess.com. How does this compare with your experience? Interested to hear from any statisticians or indeed chess.com programmers.