Will computers ever solve chess?

Sort:
edilio134

never play 4.e5 on 3.Nf3

 

godsofhell1235
USArmyParatrooper wrote:
godsofhell1235 wrote:
USArmyParatrooper wrote:
godsofhell1235 wrote:
USArmyParatrooper wrote:

I just think that’s a strange criteria for which to deem a game “perfect.” But if that’s where you’ve been going with us the whole time, I don’t disagree with you. 

My first foray into this topic I started off by not using this definition of perfect.

You politely informed me that only two real evaluations exist (I agreed) and if it never changes the whole game then it's a perfect game (I agreed).

Why you suddenly want to use a different definition of perfect I don't know, but I agree that the one we've been using isn't anything like the colloquial way we talk about a perfect game.

Well, you see I’m not changing it.  You would still have to establish that at no point during the game, did either side have an unfathomably long win by force that no human or current computer can find.  Which we absolutely don’t know.  Nor do I think we have nearly enough information to even claim it’s likely. 

I gave criteria for how we can argue for likeliness.

I also challenged you to offer a counter example by using this criteria to set up a position that is not a draw using the EGTBs we currently have.

 You can’t even calculate likelihood. At best you can give a guess.  None of us have any idea if on move 3, 4, 5, 12, etc. there isn’t some extraordinarily long mating net that no tools can see at the present moment. 

This is unlikely for logical reasons.

To claim chess is a forced win is to claim the starting position is zugzwang.

We know that the likelihood of zugzwang is e.g. proportional to the contact between the peices (both direct attacks and influencing the same empty squares) and inversly proportional to the number of legal moves available to both sides.

Maybe we could throw symmetry in there too.

We know this both through experience and with apriori logic.

godsofhell1235
USArmyParatrooper wrote:

 Just for me, that’s really butchering the word “perfect,” especially in a thread that is discussing solved chess. 

Read your post #4715 in this topic on page 236.

You even say in the context of chess being solved we'll set aside positions which have better "assessments" but lead to the same result.

Now you're saying in the context of chess being solved this is weird.

I'm willing to go with whatever, but it's difficult when you seem to be changing your position.

godsofhell1235

Anyway, we seem to be going in circles a little bit, so I'll try to be more explicit with what I'm saying.


1. Chess is likely a draw with best play from both sides.
     a. I use concepts of symmetry and contact to argue for this
     b. I use draw rates increasing as skill of players increases, including engines, to argue for this
     c. Note I say likely, not proven

 

2. Any given position is likely a draw if it exhibits certain characteristics like symmetry and contact between pieces.
     a. Note I say likely, not proven
     b. We can test whether these criteria are completely arbitrary by using EGTBs which are objective and do not guess like engines or humans do


3. A player making use of a database with every chess position stored along with either the evaluation of "draw" or "mate in __" would never make a mistake.
     a. I'll call this perfect and complete database 32EGTB
     b. I'll call its evaluation for any given position the "true evaluation"


4. If the true evaluation never changes from either mate or draw throughout the entire game, the game is perfect.
     a. There are other ways of defining a perfect game.
     b. This definition may lead to absurd examples using practical play.
     c. There is no easily agreed upon definition for what a perfect game is unless there is a forced mate from the starting position.
     

5. If both players play passively and symmetrically, and if the starting position's true evaluation is a draw, then the two players are likely to produce a perfect game
     a. Note I said likely and not definitely
     b. Note I'm assuming that the starting position is drawn.
     c. I'm also assuming my criteria for determining the likelihood of a position being drawn are useful.

godsofhell1235
blacktower01 wrote:

never play 4.e5 on 3.Nf3

 

After 3.Nf3 Nf6 the most common move in my database is 4.e5 which has been played by many different GMs.

It may not be the objectively best move, but KG players aren't too concerned with this. They typically want an objectively borderline lost position, with a big white initiative and chances for both sides.

edilio134

so the setup for my stockfish is very bad tear.png

edilio134

valutation for W goes down on 4.e5

 

USArmyParatrooper
godsofhell1235 wrote:
USArmyParatrooper wrote:

 Just for me, that’s really butchering the word “perfect,” especially in a thread that is discussing solved chess. 

Read your post #4715 in this topic on page 236.

You even say in the context of chess being solved we'll set aside positions which have better "assessments" but lead to the same result.

Now you're saying in the context of chess being solved this is weird.

I'm willing to go with whatever, but it's difficult when you seem to be changing your position.

“An ERROR will be a move that changes the outcome with BEST play on both sides.”

 

 That is what I said.

 

Let’s say with actual, literal perfect play the game starts off as drawn.  Now let’s say after a few moves in, black makes a move that gives white mate in 150 moves. I would consider that an imperfect move. 

 

 We don’t have the tools available to assess a perfect game. At least not by what I consider a reasonable definition of “perfect“

 

And really I can get more strict than that with the word.  Two candidate moves. Both of them lead to a drawn game. But one of the moves leaves more opportunities for the opponent to make an error.  One could argue that one is the actual perfect move, but so long as neither change the theoretical outcome with best play, I’m willing to call both perfect. 

godsofhell1235
blacktower01 wrote:

valutation for W goes down on 4.e5

 

Yep. Players do this on purpose in many openings, but especially in the king's gambit.

If you only follow engine and database stats, you'll end up with a 2nd rate (at the very least) repertoire.

I know this from experience, making these errors myself. You'll accidentally include lines GMs use (and computers approve of) that completely kill the position. Lower rated players will easily draw you.

As black (and as white in the king's gambit) you shouldn't try for 0.00. You should let the other side have an edge (that is, if you want to have winning chances).

edilio134

thank you

will try the option 0.00. Good point

godsofhell1235
USArmyParatrooper wrote:
godsofhell1235 wrote:
USArmyParatrooper wrote:

 Just for me, that’s really butchering the word “perfect,” especially in a thread that is discussing solved chess. 

Read your post #4715 in this topic on page 236.

You even say in the context of chess being solved we'll set aside positions which have better "assessments" but lead to the same result.

Now you're saying in the context of chess being solved this is weird.

I'm willing to go with whatever, but it's difficult when you seem to be changing your position.

“An ERROR will be a move that changes the outcome with BEST play on both sides.”

 

 That is what I said.

 

Let’s say with actual, literal perfect play the game starts off as drawn.  Now let’s say after a few moves in, black makes a move that gives white mate in 150 moves. I would consider that an imperfect move. 

 

 We don’t have the tools available to assess a perfect game. At least not by what I consider a reasonable definition of “perfect“

 

And really I can get more strict than that with the word.  Two candidate moves. Both of them lead to a drawn game. But one of the moves leaves more opportunities for the opponent to make an error.  One could argue that one is the actual perfect move, but so long as neither change the theoretical outcome with best play, I’m willing to call both perfect. 

 

Let me argue against the highlighted part using your own words.

But before that, maybe you're making a distinction between perfect moves and a perfect game.

If a game contains all perfect moves, then I call that a perfect game tongue.png

Ok, here we go:

 

USArmyParatrooper wrote:

If we agree that Hal (the computer of the future that solved chess), would have beat any one of those players, then you cannot say anyone of those players played perfect chess.  Had they chosen Hal’s perfect (and better) moves, they would have had a better outcome. 

 

godsofhell1235
blacktower01 wrote:

thank you

will try the option 0.00. Good point

That's opposite of what I said, but I don't really care, do what you want tongue.png

USArmyParatrooper
godsofhell1235 wrote:
USArmyParatrooper wrote:
godsofhell1235 wrote:
USArmyParatrooper wrote:

 Just for me, that’s really butchering the word “perfect,” especially in a thread that is discussing solved chess. 

Read your post #4715 in this topic on page 236.

You even say in the context of chess being solved we'll set aside positions which have better "assessments" but lead to the same result.

Now you're saying in the context of chess being solved this is weird.

I'm willing to go with whatever, but it's difficult when you seem to be changing your position.

“An ERROR will be a move that changes the outcome with BEST play on both sides.”

 

 That is what I said.

 

Let’s say with actual, literal perfect play the game starts off as drawn.  Now let’s say after a few moves in, black makes a move that gives white mate in 150 moves. I would consider that an imperfect move. 

 

 We don’t have the tools available to assess a perfect game. At least not by what I consider a reasonable definition of “perfect“

 

And really I can get more strict than that with the word.  Two candidate moves. Both of them lead to a drawn game. But one of the moves leaves more opportunities for the opponent to make an error.  One could argue that one is the actual perfect move, but so long as neither change the theoretical outcome with best play, I’m willing to call both perfect. 

 

Let me argue against the highlighted part using your own words.

But before that, maybe you're making a distinction between perfect moves and a perfect game.

If a game contains all perfect moves, then I call that a perfect game

Ok, here we go:

 

USArmyParatrooper wrote:

If we agree that Hal (the computer of the future that solved chess), would have beat any one of those players, then you cannot say anyone of those players played perfect chess.  Had they chosen Hal’s perfect (and better) moves, they would have had a better outcome. 

 

That doesn’t at all conflict with what I said.  I think there’s a miscommunication somewhere? 

ponz111
USArmyParatrooper wrote:  

lol

 

For crying out loud. Is “the most monstrous engine we have” AMONG the top engines, yes or no?  this sentence makes no sense--apparently it is incomplete? I have no idea what you mean by this sentence?

 

       o if someone can beat the “the most monstrous engine we have” does that not ALSO mean the person the person can beat all the top engines?  not necessarily but in any event you do not define your terms very well. There is a big difference between one engine and all engines.

 Just because we might sometimes play a game without errors and this would mean we might sometimes play  a perfect game and draw a game against the best chess engine. [example Alpha Zero might be today's best chess engine] THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE COULD ACTUALLY WIN AGAINST THE BEST CHESS ENGINE.

 

You’re grasping at straws. 

USArmyParatrooper
ponz111 wrote:
USArmyParatrooper wrote:  

lol

 

For crying out loud. Is “the most monstrous engine we have” AMONG the top engines, yes or no?  this sentence makes no sense--apparently it is incomplete? I have no idea what you mean by this sentence?

 

       o if someone can beat the “the most monstrous engine we have” does that not ALSO mean the person the person can beat all the top engines?  not necessarily but in any event you do not define your terms very well. There is a big difference between one engine and all engines.

 Just because we might sometimes play a game without errors and this would mean we might sometimes play  a perfect game and draw a game against the best chess engine. [example Alpha Zero might be today's best chess engine] THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE COULD ACTUALLY WIN AGAINST THE BEST CHESS ENGINE.

 

You’re grasping at straws. 

And how does the best engine beat you if you don’t make any errors? 

ponz111
godsofhell1235 wrote:
blacktower01 wrote:

never play 4.e5 on 3.Nf3

 

After 3.Nf3 Nf6 the most common move in my database is 4.e5 which has been played by many different GMs.

It may not be the objectively best move, but KG players aren't too concerned with this. They typically want an objectively borderline lost position, with a big white initiative and chances for both sides.

I am using the 2. ...Nf6 sequence as an attempt to refute that line of the King's Gambit. The current analysis of this line appears to be not very good. [i know the response is often 3. e5 by some strong players.]

edilio134
godsofhell1235 ha scritto:
blacktower01 wrote:

thank you

will try the option 0.00. Good point

That's opposite of what I said, but I don't really care, do what you want

I say that e5 is a blunder and you says that also gm play that move in order to confuse the opponent and if e5 is not good for the engine but played on real i conclude that is better to concentrate not on the best move in kg opening.  Where i'm wrong..i've studied KG for months meh.png and 4.e5 is very bad

 

USArmyParatrooper

 Also, let’s say a human (or Stockfish) has forced mate in 153 moves, but doesn’t see it and instead plays a different move. 

 

Was that an error? 

godsofhell1235
USArmyParatrooper wrote:

That doesn’t at all conflict with what I said.  I think there’s a miscommunication somewhere? 

So you're saying the player's moves may be perfect (if they never change Hal's evaluation).

And you agree that if every move in the game is like this, then it's a perfect game.

But you also say "[we] cannot say anyone of those players played perfect chess" (if Hal would have beaten either of them).

---

When you say if Hal would have beaten either of them, what I'm imagining is you're saying during the game we substitute Hal for one of the players, and now Wesely So, or Carlsen, is playing Hal instead of the human opponent he drew with.

Do you mean something else when you say if Hal would have beaten either of them?

godsofhell1235
blacktower01 wrote:
godsofhell1235 ha scritto:
blacktower01 wrote:

thank you

will try the option 0.00. Good point

That's opposite of what I said, but I don't really care, do what you want

I say that e5 is a blunder and you says that also gm play that move in order to confuse the opponent and if e5 is not good for the engine but played on real i conclude that is better to concentrate not on the best move in kg opening.  Where i'm wrong..i've studied KG for months  and 4.e5 is very bad

 

Ok, no problem happy.png