Winning as Black? A quick look at GM results

“Win as white, draw as black.” This old saying has been a staple of tournament chess for many years, mathematically it makes sense. If you draw all your games as black and then get a few wins as white you will overall have a positive score and probably be contending for the lead. Let’s see If players bought into this idea. For my data set I will be looking at the Tata Steel/Corus tournament from 2007-2010. All the results are available on their website. http://www.tatasteelchess.com/history/

Tata Steel/Corus 2007-2010

White Wins - 24 %

Black Wins - 12 %

Draws- 64%

We seem to have confirmation of the old ways, mostly draws and the wins being heavily in white’s favour.

However in the past year there has been an increase in the number of wins as black in high level tournaments, let’s look at some potential reasons. 

1) Super tournament scoring - Many tournaments are shifting over to a new scoring system of 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss. The London Classic in 2012 used such a system and was won by the little known Magnus Carlsen

London Classic 2012

White wins - 20%

Black wins - 22%

Draw - 58%

Quite a dramatic change it could be the case that, mathematically, players feel like drawing is no longer  an attractive option and therefore they must press on for the win. This can lead to players risking sharp lines and rejecting equality. In a situation where players are pushing for the win they can often end up going against what the chess board is telling them to do. You have to play the position. If you don’ you could be in trouble.  

However not all super tournaments use this system,  let’s look at the Tata Steel tournament in 2013 won by the young and talented Boris Gelfand

Tata Steel and Tal Memorial 2013

White wins -  13%

Black wins -  25%

Draw -  62 %

I just want to say a quick word about the tournaments I used. I am aware that this isn’t perfect data. The players in these tournaments span quite a wide range of ratings and this may skew the data however I imagine that in games where a super GM is matched up against a 2600 the super GM has white and black in equal quantities.

So if both tournaments have black winning a higher percentage of games compared to previous years  in all forms of tournaments then maybe something else is going on. 

2) Stricter rules on agreed draws - Tournaments are much tighter on opponents agreeing to a draw, if there is some play in a position you have to continue. This favours the players who can grind down an opponent (looking at you Magnus) and can lead to surprising wins out of drawn positions.

3) Modern era players - The list of participants in the super GM tournaments has changed a lot in recent years. Caruana, Carlsen, Nakamura, Aronian are still relatively new to the Super GM scene along with others (apologies to anyone missed out). It could be the case that these new players prefer the doubled edged openings where black fights and isn’t looking to draw. 

Is this enough justification or are there other potential reasons? Let me hear your thoughts.

I can see the fact that players feel they should be winning as white and overpressing being a big factor.

I am sergey and I want apologies!!

My Sincere apologies I couldn't remember how to spell your surname

First move adavantage is very important in engine games as well.

Well, he's definitely talented, but young... 

He was playing chess with the energy and imagination of a youthful man.

"The London Classic in 2012 used such a system and was won by the little known Magnus Carlsen"

Ah yes, the very obscure Magnus Carlsen   I just came across this thread today and thought this sentence may have been meant ironically before realising the timestamp

There is a huge difference between match play and tournament play. In a match you have to win 1 game and it is more likely to do that with white. In a tournament you have to win against the weaker players, regardless of color, and not lose against the stronger players.
Win/draw/loss correlate more with rating difference of the players than with color.