If the time controls are less than an hour, I still put my money on the club player because the position is so complex that Carlsen will use all his time and blunder.
Depends on what you mean by less than an hour. If you mean that Carlsen has three seconds to make all his moves while his opponent has 45 minutes, then I guess it's possible, though other openings are much better. If it's a standard 30-minute game, though, then you're nuts. Besides, there are a lot of ways to have a good game against the Grob, and if it's the World Champion facing it, I'm pretty sure he'll completely slaughter whoever's using it. It's that bad of an opening. If you ever faced him and decided to use it, go ahead, no one's stopping you. If you think it's a good opening against a World Champion, though, you really are out of your mind.
If the time controls are less than an hour, I still put my money on the club player because the position is so complex that Carlsen will use all his time and blunder.