PRO Chess League Playoff Predictor 3
2019 PRO Chess League Playoff Predictor
The 2019 PRO Chess League regular season is over, and after 10 weeks of exciting chess, we finally get to see the top teams going head-to-head for the PRO Chess League title. Some teams had to fight up until the last Battle Royale to get here, whereas other teams seemed like shoo-ins at the beginning of the season. Regardless of their path here, every team has a chance to be the 2019 Champion. Winning the PRO Chess Lague takes everything a team has, and that means playing great chess, from the first boards to the fourth boards. In this edition of Playoff Predictor, I am simply trying to fill out the playoff bracket and determine who will be the 2019 champion. As always, I will undoubtedly get some wrong, but I will do my best to present what I see as the most likely outcome of the playoffs.
Playoff Format: In the playoffs, the 1 seed in every division plays the 4 seed and the 2 plays the 3. Then the winners play each other That means that one team from every division is going to make the coveted final four. From there, the team with the most points gets to choose its opponent, and the other two teams face off. Then the winners of the two semifinal matchups get to compete for $20,000. If there is a tie in the first two rounds, then the team with more regular season points with advance. In the semifinals and finals, there will be a tiebreak to determine a winner. You can always check the PRO Chess League Rules for clarification of the playoff structure.
Round 1:
Saint Louis Arch Bishops vs. Montclair Sopranos: The Arch Bishops have as good of a team as any other in the entire league, but the Sopranos really showed their grit and determination by winning the Atlantic Division Battle Royale, so I have a feeling they’ll put up a pretty good fight. But it’s hard to see Caruana and So losing in the first round.
Winner: Satin Louis Arch Bishops
New York Marshalls vs. Webster Windmills: Both of these teams possess great players and a good amount of depth, so I think that this matchup will ultimately come down to the play of the third and fourth boards for both teams. While I don’t know for certain who they will be, I trust Grant Xu more than any lower board on Webster.
Winner: New York Marshalls
Minnesota Blizzard vs. Australia Kangaroos: Minnesota is definitely a good team, but I think they are a little overrated. They have a record of 2-2-3 in divisional matches, and the only reason they are first in the division is because they finished in first twice and second once in the three Battle Royales this year. The playoffs are not Battle Royale, so I think the Blizzard will struggle with Sarana, Smirnov and the rest of the Kangaroos.
Winner: Australia Kangaroos
Dallas Destiny vs. Chengdu Pandas: Chengdu has more talent than just about anybody in the league, but they only wound up finishing third in the division in points. This is in part because of their 7th place finish in the Battle Royale, but it is a reason to concern for the Pandas. The Destiny have some great players on their team and Chengdu is going to have to score decently from their bottom boards, which is something they haven’t been able to do consistently all season. In the end, though, their talent will prevail.
Winner: Chengdu Pandas
Tbilisi Gentlemen vs. Moscow Wizards: The Gentlemen were the most dominant team in the whole PRO Chess League and you can expect that their dominance will continue, at least in the first round. The Wizards are a good team, but the Gentlemen have shown tremendous consistency and always score well on the lower boards.
Winner: Tbilisi Gentlemen
Armenia Eagles vs. Mumbai Movers: The Eagles and the Gentlemen both finished the regular season undefeated, and they seem like they are on a collision course to face each other in the next round. I expect the Eagles to easily defeat the Movers, especially with how the movers have played in the second half of the season.
Winner: Armenia Eagles
Norway Gnomes vs. Cannes Blitzstreams: The Blitzstreams had an impressive late-season push to get here, but the Gnomes have been great all year. I don’t expect the Gnomes to waste a great season by losing in the first round to a Cannes team who should feel lucky just to be there. Norway should dominate Cannes.
Winner: Norway Gnomes
Badan-Baden Snowballs vs. Amsterdam Mosquitos: The Mosquitos and Snowballs are pretty evenly matched in one of the more exciting first-round matchups. Neither team has a superstar, and both teams have relied on many different players to get them to this point. This is a real toss-up, but my vote is for Liam Vrolijk to play well and the Mosquitos to win
Winner: Amsterdam Mosquitos
Round 2:
Saint Louis Arch Bishops vs. New York Marshalls: The question for the Arch Bishops is always regarding who they want to play on board 3. If they can start somebody that scores 2.5 out of 4, they will win no problem. If they only get 1 out of 4, they will have a tough time winning. That being said, I think Nikolas Theodorou is a great third board for the Arch Bishops, but they might not even play him. If they do, I love their chances; if they don’t, they’ll probably still win.
Winner: Saint Louis Arch Bishops
Chengdu Pandas vs. Australia Kangaroos: Both of these teams lost only once all year, so this should be a very exciting match. Chengdu boasts one of the most potent top boards in the whole league, while the Kangaroos have excellent depth and have been able to score well on all 4 boards all year. If Sarana and Smirnov can both draw the top two players for Chengdu, they will win the match; However, I don't think they will.
Winner: Chengdu Pandas
Tbilisi Gentlemen vs. Armenia Eagles: These two teams have more points than any other teams in the league, so this will be an epic showdown. Nika Volkov might be the most valuable player in the whole PRO Chess league, with a 30.5 out of 49 score this season and a performance rating of 2501, when he is only 2115 rated. Due to Volkov’s dominance, I think the Gentlemen will come out on top.
Winner: Tbilisi Gentlemen
Norway Gnomes vs. Amsterdam Mosquitos: The Gnomes are the top team in the division, but the Mosquitos are no slouches. The two teams have very similar looking rosters, but the Gnomes have been much more consistent this season. This will be a battle from start to finish, but in the end, the Gnomes will be headed to the final 4.
Winner: Norway Gnomes
Semifinals: At this point, the team with the most regular-season points gets to choose their opponent. Tbilisi has the most points, so I predict they will choose the Gnomes as their opponent.
Tbilisi Gentlemen vs. Norway Gnomes: The Gentlemen opted to play the Gnomes since the Gnomes don’t have any super GMs on their team, but they are still one of the best teams in the league. The Gnomes will give the Gentlemen everything they have, and the Gentlemen will struggle. But their 4 quality players will each score well and lead the Gentlemen into the final.
Winner: Tbilisi Gentlemen
Saint Louis Arch Bishops vs. Chengdu Pandas: This matchup is a battle of Super GMs, with 5 total between the two teams. The Bishops have used three of the same boards all year, while the Pandas have changed things up, but the Arch Bishops won’t have So in this match, so the Pandas will assert dominance at the top two boards and earn their spot in the PRO Chess League Championship.
Winner: Chengdu Pandas
Championship:
Tbilisi Gentlemen vs. Chengdu Pandas: These two unlikely opponents face each other in the final with completely different team compositions. On one hand, the Gentlemen have a few very good players that are generally close to 2500 rating; they are a deep team without a superstar. On the other hand, the Pandas have Ding Liren and Yu Yangyi to go along with lower rated players to balance the average board rating out. In the end, the Gentlemen will prove that you don’t need a top-tier player to win a championship.
2019 PRO Chess League Champions: Tbilisi Gentlemen
