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Chess Ratings - How They Work

  • erik
  • | Aug 23, 2007
  • | 148830 views
  • | 489 comments

Like it or not, we ALL have a chess rating. You may not care at all about your rating, or you may be whining every time it goes down in the slightest. You might be someone who plays a game a year, or someone who plays 1,000 a day. Still, there is a number out there that represents how well you play chess. Well, that's the theory, anyway.

To understand chess ratings you have to understand two things: #1 - that you have a TRUE rating that perfectly represents your strength of play, and #2 - that that TRUE rating will never be known and so we have to use statistics to get as close as possible to the truth. I'm writing this article in response to many people who ask about ratings and need a simple explanation of how they work. (I only know about all this because of a recent super-in-depth statistics course I took and my research in building Chess.com!)

There are two main rating systems, and each one has its merits.

The Elo System (used by the United States Chess Federation, FIDE, and many other online chess sites) is popular for two reason - it has been around for a long time, and it is simple. The idea is this: given two chess players of different strengths, we should be able to calculate the % chance that the better player will win the game. For example, Garry Kasparov has ~100% chance of beating my 4-year-old daughter. But he may only have a ~60% chance of beating another Grandmaster. So when playing that other Grandmaster, if he wins 6 games out of 10, his rating would stay the same. If he won 7 or more, it would go up, and 5 of less, his rating would go down. Basically, the wider the spread of the ratings, the higher percentage of games the higher rated player is expected to win. So to calculate a person's rating after playing a few games you calculate the average ratings of his opponents, and then how many games he was expected to win, and then plug it into a formula that spits out the new rating. Simple enough. Well, it turns out, that is maybe TOO simple.

The Glicko System (used by Chess.com, the Australian Chess Federation, and some other online sites) is a more modern approach that builds on some of the concepts above, but uses a more complicated formula. (This only makes sense now that we have computers that can calculate this stuff in the blink of an eye - when Elo created his system they were doing it on paper!) It is a bit trickier than the Elo system, so pay attention. With the Elo system you have to assume that everyone's rating is just as sure as everyone else's rating. So my rating is as accurate as your rating. But that is just not true. For example, if this is your first game on Chess.com and you start at 1200, how do we really know what your rating is? We don't. But if I have played 1,000 games on this site, you would be much more sure that my current rating is accurate. So the Glicko system gives everyone not only a rating, but an "RD", called a Rating Deviation. Basically what that number means is "I AM 95% SURE YOUR RATING IS BETWEEN X and Y." (Nerd Fact: In technical terms this is called a "confidence interval".) If this if your first game on Chess.com I might say, "I am 95% sure that your rating is somewhere between 400 and 2400". Well that is a REALLY big range! And that is represented by a really big RD, or Rating Deviation. If you have played 1,000 games and your rating is currently 1600 I might say "I am 95% sure your rating is between 1550 and 1650". So you would have a low RD. As you play more games, your RD gets lower. To add one extra wrinkle in there, the more recent your games, the lower your RD. Your RD gets bigger over time (because maybe you have gotten better or worse over time - I'm just less sure of what your actual rating is if I haven't seen you play recently). Now, how does this affect ratings? Well, if you have a big RD, then your rating can move up and down more drastically because your rating is less accurate. But if you have a small RD then your rating will move up and down more slowly because your rating is more accurate. The opposite is true for your opponent! If they have a HIGH RD, then your rating will change LESS when you win or lose because their rating is less accurate. But if they have a LOW RD, then your rating will move MORE because their rating is more accurate.

I wish there was some simple analogy to explain all this, but there isn't. It all comes back to this: you have a theoretically exact chess rating at any given moment, but we don't know what that is and so we have to use math to estimate what it is. There are really smart people out there who work on this stuff for a living, and at the end of it all we get to put their proven methods into our code so that we can all enjoy knowing what little numbers next to our name we deserve.

If you want to read more, check out these articles (WARNING - SEVERE NERD CONTENT AHEAD):

- The Glicko System by Professor Mark Glickman, Boston University

- Introduction to Chess Ratings (Elo mostly) on About.com

Comments


  • 14 months ago

    Salmonster

    Thank you so much I was really confused on how the ratings work now I know I also had no idea what FIDE was or ELO now I know thanks a lot!

  • 14 months ago

    prjt_sr

    [COMMENT DELETED]
  • 14 months ago

    paoloalam

    How would you rate my rating which is 652 so far? I want your feedback. I do not know where I am currently standing? I have started playing it online 5 days ago.

  • 14 months ago

    MichaelOliva

    good article, and I found the comment/questions/ et al. to be interesting and amusing as well

  • 14 months ago

    BadHabitZZZ

    VERY helpful

  • 15 months ago

    Cavatine

    Nobody should expect ratings to predict outcomes very closely. Even the "TRUE rating" couldn't determine the outcome.

    In order to find out my "TRUE rating" here's what I imagine I would have to do:

    a) Assemble a whole bunch of test positions, with evaluation for how good or bad various moves would be, and evaluation for how long I take to solve them

    b) Test myself in various conditions against the problems. This is complicated because I might be bad at endgames if the room is noisy, or great at openings if the room has flickering lights etc.  

    c) Take some average of the results (who decides what factors are weighted by how much?)

    It would take a lot of energy to carefully measure the "TRUE rating".

    Then I get to an actual contest, and the outcome depends on my "TRUE abilities" + my actual state that day (compared to my average) + the actual conditions that day (random input from the environment) + the moves my actual opponents choose.

    In the ratings system, all that noise is condensed into results (0, 1/2, 1) and then further condensed into the ratings adjustment to go from the current estimate to the updated estimate.  

    Overall there's a lot of condensation that occurs.

    The "TRUE rating" doesn't determine the outcome. A person's mental & physical state, and the particulars of the setting and the actual game are what determine the outcome.

    If chess had gambling, there could be a public "weigh-in", or like what they do in horse racing, where the contestants would show off their form before the betting closed ...

  • 15 months ago

    DamoclesLoraine

    It's like on the street. You gotta mug a lot of people who got more n wot you hav but it ain't always easy. Best to catch em drunk....

  • 16 months ago

    NSAiswatchingthegame

    where i can see my rating before start a new game

  • 16 months ago

    USA-1-Brother

    I have read the first 20 comments that appeared when I logged into this area.  There a lot of very interesting questions posed but no answeres!  I suspect the answeres to these questions would be not only interesting but, in some cases, educational.  If you are not going to provide replies to inquires this forum is of little value except as a "gripe" or "brag" forum.  Discontinue it and save yourself some computer space.

  • 17 months ago

    spencer204

    how do i only win 8 points for winning against someone a 100 points ahead of me but lose 8 points for losing to someone who is 50 points below me? that seems off to me. 

  • 18 months ago

    BlackBob

    My Glico RD of 52 looks about right to me. 1482 plus 52 is 1534 and that would be good for me. Minus 52 is 1430 and I wouldn't expect to go below that, even after the pub! I believe I should be a consistent 1500+ but high 1400s seems to be my natural game..... warts and all :(

    Good article! :)

  • 19 months ago

    Bobstem

    Like most games that humans play there are multiple variables that make up scores in various systems. Only a few of the variables are know widely at a certain period in time, thus with an increase in the global human population over time more variables will develope that become widely know and scores will change until chimps are introduced to the game -then we will need to refigure....Bobstem  

  • 21 months ago

    bemani

    my rating is not fine, because play few games.

  • 22 months ago

    CharlesRoberson

    JohnMePlease,l

       Everbody has multiple ratings based on the time duration of the game. Your standard rating is 799, your blitz rating is 633 and your bullet rating is 559. Maybe, you are confusing your blitz and standard rating. Just go to your home page and scroll down a bit and the list of ratings is on the right. You should see 3 ratings that start with the phrase "Live Chess". The y are Blitz, Standard and Bullet in that order.

  • 22 months ago

    JohnMePlease

    Sometimes when I log onto live chess after taking a break of a few hours my rating drops signifigantly! last night i won a number of matches in a row and was at 799 this mourning im back to 636! i haven't been able to break the 800's because every time i do the next day im back at the 600's! is this normal? and if so why does the rating system do this?

  • 23 months ago

    shmuelsht

    It happened several times. I was playing white and it was the opponent's turn. I made a move and waited for him to play. All of a sudden the game stopped and I got a msg black won. WHY????? 

  • 23 months ago

    shahhussainkcl

    Just because I was interested, I found this discussion:

    Rating Point Option on Timeout Wins

    Part way down the discussion, TadDude says: "Timeouts where there are less than three and a half moves do not impact rating in any type of game."

  • 23 months ago

    driv4r

    No, it's not your imagination and neither is it a bug. It depends on how many moves are made in the game before the timeout. I can't remember exactly but I believe you need to have made at least 4 or 5 moves for the rating to change...

    So, obviously your rating won't change if your opponent times out without any moves for example.

  • 23 months ago

    shahhussainkcl

    That's a good question. Recently, I've been noticing that my rating hasn't been changing when certain opponents timeout. I don't know if it's something to do with timeouts not counting if the opponent is still at the "Unrated" stage or whether it's a bug or whether it's just my imagination.

  • 23 months ago

    poultrygeist

    Will a win by checkmate increase my rating more than a win because my opponent runs out of time?

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