Prodigy Watch

Welcome to Prodigy Watch! This page shows the young stars whose current ratings stack up best against the top players of all time at their same age. This is a permanent landing page, where the most recent Prodigy Watch update will always be available, so go ahead and bookmark it if you think you may want to revisit in the future!

Our "prodigy rank" stat, in the fourth column, is the key to the table. It shows where each player's rating ranks historically in comparison to all other players at the same age. In other words, if you currently hold the record for highest rating ever at your age, you'll have a prodigy rank of 1. Because the players on the table are not being directly compared to other players on the table, but to all players in history at the same age, it's possible for the list each month to have multiple players with a prodigy rank of #1. Other months may have nobody with a #1 rank—it's not every day that all-time records are being set! 

LAST UPDATED JUNE 1, 2025

For even more detail about this table, read on.

• How Prodigy Watch Works
• Who Is Included In Prodigy Watch
• What Prodigy Watch Means
• How Age Is Calculated
• Other Considerations

How Prodigy Watch Works

This page is updated monthly, and tracks the strongest junior chess players in the world under the age of 18, based on how their classical FIDE ratings compare to the top chess prodigies of all time. It's important to note that Prodigy Rank is a historical comparison, and a rank of #1 means a player is a record-setter. 

For a simple example, in August 2024, GM Gukesh Dommaraju was rated 2766 at age 18.18. The three highest rated players of all time at or before the age of 18.18 were GM Magnus Carlsen at 2786, Gukesh at 2766, and GM Alireza Firouzja at 2759. Thus, Gukesh earned a prodigy rank of 2 in the August 2024 Prodigy Watch.

Who Is Included In Prodigy Watch

Anyone who hasn't yet celebrated their 18th birthday, and is rated at least 1800, is assigned a prodigy rank based on current rating and their age. Then, all players with a prodigy rank of 100 or better are included in the list, to help give us a sense who the top up-and-coming talents in the chess world might be.  

What Prodigy Watch Means

How can these ranks be interpreted? First of all, they don't guarantee anything about the future. Top rated young prodigies don't always turn into top rated adult players, and there is no need to use these rankings to place unnecessary pressure and expectations on children. That said, when we look through the prodigy records, we see many famous names, so it's also clear that high ranks in this measure do at least show significant potential.

A useful way of thinking about it might be to consider a hypothetical adult professional player. While we wouldn't list a 30 year old as a "prodigy", the 10th highest rating ever achieved by the age of 30 was 2804, and the 100th highest was 2704. So, in general, we can think of players with a top-10 prodigy rank as showing the potential to someday be a top-rated player, with best-case-scenario chances to compete in Candidates Tournaments and perhaps even someday contend for the World Championship. Meanwhile, anyone in the top 100 (our inclusion threshold for the list) may have hopes of "Super GM" status—a rating of 2700 or higher—if they can maintain that rank all the way to adulthood.

How Age Is Calculated

As FIDE only publishes years of birth, ages are another important source of possible inaccuracies that require a few notes. If we aren't certain of a player's birthday, we make the most conservative estimate possible, which is to calculate age based on a January 1 birthdate. Sometimes, when we do learn a player's actual birthday—particularly if it is late in the year—they may suddenly and retroactively show up on old lists. It's entirely possible to learn someone's birthday when they are 15, and realize that they hit a certain rating mark at the age of 9.9 when we previously thought they were 10.7, and suddenly a "new" record holder on the under-10 list appears even though they actually set the record five years earlier.

Readers may also wonder why we use decimal values for all ages. Quite simply, it's necessary for our data tables to retain a semblance of readability. To use the otherwise-standard years/months/days format would make too big a mess of the age column on these extensive charts. We do the best we can to resolve this, and are always researching birthdays that can help make the data even more precise.

Other Considerations

In addition to looking at who the top current prodigies to keep an eye on are at the moment, this data can also be used in a variety of other ways. The numbers can offer broader context for what ratings would be considered historically elite at any given age, and may be used by our team in a variety of other articles or broadcasts. Additionally, we also track record holders for various milestones, such as the top players to ever reach various rating thresholds or the highest-rated players at or before a given age. We aren't offering all those lists here, as the page would get a little overwhelming with data tables, but again those record lists are used by our team in a number of ways. When you see such records, or references to prodigy rank, elsewhere in our work, this landing page is always available to serve as a reminder of what it all means.

If you read this far, perhaps you have further questions. You are welcome to contact @chessnumbers if you want any further clarification about how these numbers were reached, or if you believe you have found an error or omission. We calculate these values based on a curated database, trying to prioritize accuracy, but it's entirely possible that we have missed someone in the lower age and rating ranges.

However, our database does include every player rated 2630 or higher, including inactive players, so the higher level records are quite reliable. Ultimately, particularly with younger players, the caveat applies that these ranks, and any records based on them, show the top prodigies that we are aware of. It is always possible that a player might slip through the cracks if they do something historically special at a very young age, but don't continue to pursue chess and make their way onto our radar later.

Thank you for reading, and we hope you enjoy!