2025 Speed Chess Championship Predictions: Round One
A major source of excitement in the Speed Chess Championship stems from the inherently chaotic and unpredictable nature of blitz and bullet chess. But that doesn't mean we can't take a look at how these matches might go. These predictions are based on a simulation model driven by the players' Chess.com ratings in blitz and bullet.
No, we aren't revealing anything earth-shattering here. Higher-rated players are favored. But we are able to put some baseline expectations in place for how those rating differentials translate to probabilities of winning and to expected score lines for each match, so that as we enjoy the show, we can have a sense of when we're seeing something new and surprising.
In this article, we'll take a look at the model's projected results for each round one matchup, discuss how the projections align with each player's results in previous SCCs, and look ahead to who we might expect to see reach the finals. Note that any mention of past match records only looks at games in the main elimination bracket. Consolation matches and qualifying matches aren't included.
Round One Matches
GM Alireza Firouzja is surprisingly only 4-4 in past Speed Chess Championship matches, suffering close first-round losses in his first three attempts. However, in last year's edition, he showed his class in reaching the finals. The prediction model just looks at his blitz rating (third highest in the field) and his bullet rating (second highest in the field) and nods. It would be an extreme surprise to see him lose early in this event, even if it has happened before.
GM Tuan Minh Le, in his second SCC appearance, would love to achieve the shocking upset, but unless ratings prove deeply inaccurate here, a more realistic goal might just be keeping the match more competitive than his first-round exit last year.
Do we need a prediction model, or do we just say that it's GM Magnus Carlsen? Carlsen has won this event four times, only ever losing two matches. We can assume the two-time defending champion won't slip up in round one. Ratings do suggest that his edge might sink slightly as the games get faster, but he is a very strong favorite in all three segments.
GM Jose Martinez had to play GM Hikaru Nakamura in the first round of his debut appearance last year, and is back this year with this first round matchup. He either needs a miracle (perhaps courtesy of paternal brain fog?) or else he needs a better pairing next year.
The model expects a very close match here. GM Arjun Erigaisi has a small edge in blitz ratings, and he will look to build a lead early, but the margin isn't enough to project better than even through the first two rounds.
When the clock drops to one minute, GM Denis Lazavik's edge in bullet rating is enough for him to project as the winner slightly more often than not, but this match could easily go either way and is likely to come down to the wire! There is nearly a 30% chance this match is decided by a single point.
This would be familiar territory for both competitors, as Arjun's 1-3 lifetime record in SCC matches had margins of one, two, two, and three points, while Lazavik's only match was a two-point loss last year.
GM Wesley So is an SCC veteran who has never managed to crack the Naka/Magnus code, losing six matches to those two superstars, but who is otherwise a three-time finalist with a 16-2 record against all other opponents. Historically speaking, he's easily the third most dangerous player in the field, although current ratings don't fully support that claim.
Still, he is rated highly enough for the model to mark him as a clear first-round favorite over GM Vincent Keymer, who is making his SCC debut.
Nakamura is a five-time SCC champion, boasting a 30-4 match record, and is the highest-rated player in the field in both blitz and bullet. Of course, the model names him an overwhelming favorite in round one, predicting GM Le Quang Liem will be entirely overmatched in his debut appearance.
A solid edge in blitz rating tells the model that the most likely outcome here is for GM Ian Nepomniachtchi to build an early lead, and although bullet ratings are very close, Nepo's slight edge makes him a solid favorite to hold onto that lead for a match win. Nepo is 5-7 in prior SCCs, reaching the semifinals once, while GM Anish Giri is 2-6 and returning to the event after a two-year absence.
This match offers the least trustworthy data on both players, making it the shakiest prediction of the bunch. GM Hans Niemann (2-1 in past SCC matches) played excellently and reached the semifinals in his debut appearance last year, and could be seen as a top-five contender in this year's group if we expect a similar run. Ratings put him a little lower in the middle of the pack, though. GM Ding Liren, on the other hand, is 4-3 in SCC matches, but hasn't played the event since 2022, and is no longer the same player he was then.
For this match, Hans is favored as the higher-rated player in all time controls, and that feels right in the context of past results as well. It's certainly believable, though, that in any given event, Ding could show his old form and play like he's the favorite instead.
The big wild card here is the results in later rounds for whoever wins. Either player could be a strong contender to reach at least the semis if things go right—if Niemann plays like he did last year or if Ding plays like the former world champion that he is—or could be a round two underdog if their current ratings are the more accurate indicator.
The model favors GM Fabiano Caruana by the slimmest of margins, by virtue of his notably higher bullet rating. However, with a 5-7 lifetime record, Fabi hasn't historically played entirely up to his rating in the SCC. If ratings are the best indicator, we expect him to fall slightly behind early, mount a late comeback, and this one should come down to the wire.
If he underperforms the bullet portion, as has happened before, he may not have a comeback in him. Not that it's a guarantee he'll need a bullet comeback, GM Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu's lead in blitz ratings is slim, and that portion could also go either way. After all, it is Pragg's event debut, so we know even less about how he'll handle the format.
Later Rounds
So, how much do round one results matter? The SCC has been held nine times, and every one has been won by either Carlsen or Nakamura. Do we need the formalities of a full bracket, or should we simply pencil them in against each other in the final? The good news for chess fans is that the full bracket definitely matters.
Certainly, Hikaru vs. Magnus is the most likely matchup we might see in the finals, but according to the model, it happens almost exactly half the time, while half the time at least one other player makes it. So what vulnerabilities do Carlsen and Nakamura have that could prevent their showdown, and if someone else does get through instead, who would that be?
Magnus is the single most likely finalist according to the model, at 72%, but he does have a surprisingly human bullet rating—only the fifth best in the field. This means that while he'll be a strong favorite against anyone he might face before the finals, it's not a full guarantee. Bullet specialist Lazavik potentially has the best shot (24%) to upset Carlsen if they meet in the semis.
Hikaru has a 70% chance of reaching the finals. His problem isn't any flaw in his game—his ratings are the best in the field after all—but he has a challenging draw. Specifically, he's in the same half of the field as Alireza. Although the model says Nakamura is a solid favorite over Firouzja, winning slightly more than two-thirds of potential semifinal matchups, it's nevertheless a definite roadblock for Hikaru's chances to reach the final. And of course, that's exactly what happened last year: Nakamura lost to Firouzja in the semis, so the model isn't crying sheep here; we know the threat is real.
This, of course, points us towards the most likely reason we might not see a Magnus vs. Hikaru final: Alireza Firouzja. The model gives him a 29% chance of reaching the finals, while seeing it as almost impossible that anyone else emerges from that half of the bracket. As good as the other players are (So in particular), they share the challenge that a path to the finals requires upsetting both Nakamura and Firouzja.
The rest of the potential roadblocks, therefore, lie on Magnus' side of the bracket. We mentioned earlier that he could have risks in a potential semifinal matchup against Lazavik, and the model's takeaway from that is that Lazavik has a 12% chance to reach the finals. However, one of the most interesting first-round matchups is Lazavik vs. Arjun, as the fourth- and fifth-highest-rated players in the field are paired early, giving Arjun an 8% chance at the finals himself.
And then there's also Niemann, a semifinalist last year, who might repeat that feat this year about one in four times, and has a 4% chance of reaching the finals.
The point is that while some scenarios are certainly more likely than others, there are numerous plausible outcomes to this tournament, so our job as an audience is to sit back and enjoy the spectacle—especially the inevitable surprises!
