Methodology: Using the historical stats, assume the result of a match is 25% 2-2, 39% 2.5-1.5, 23% 3-1, 11% 3.5-0.5, 3% 4-0. Assume average rating remains constant through the end of the season.

Philadelphia:

is in a tough spot, requiring:

Win over MAN and Win over NY and either

i) NY-NJ results in a tie and NJ-Manhattan is a decisive match and Philadelphia catches up in GP enough to take over both NY and (loser of NJ-Manhattan).

or

ii) NJ beats NY and NJ beats MAN and Philly catches up in GP to pass Manhattan.

In case (i) Philly must win against MAN

4-0: Must win final match by

-3-1: NJ beats MAN 3.5-0.5 or 4-0 OR MAN beats NJ (44.5%*11.5%*1.5%)

-3.5-0.5: NJ beats MAN 3-1 or above OR MAN beats NJ (56%*5.5%*1.5%)

-4-0: NJ beats MAN or MAN beats NJ (75%*1.5%*1.5%)

3.5-0.5: Must win final match by

-3.5-0.5: NJ beats MAN 4-0 or MAN beats NJ (39%*5.5%*5.5%)

-4-0: NJ beats MAN 3.5-0.5 or 4-0 or MAN beats NJ (44.5%*1.5%*5.5%)

3-1: Must win final match by 3.5-0.5 or 4-0 and MAN beats NJ (7%*37.5%*11.5%)

2.5-1.5: Must win final match 4-0 and MAN beats NJ (1.5%*37.5%*19.5%)

e.g. case (i) has a .706% chance of happening

In case (ii):

Philly must win against NY:

4-0: Philly must beat MAN

-4-0: NJ must beat MAN (37.5%*1.5%*1.5)

-3.5-0.5: NJ must beat MAN at least 3-1 (18.5%*5.5%*1.5%)

-3-1: NJ must beat MAN at least 3.5-0.5 (7%*11.5%*1.5%)

-2.5-0.5: NJ must beat MAN 4-0 (1.5%*19.5%*1.5%)

3.5-0.5: Philly must beat MAN

-4-0: NJ must beat MAN at least 3-1 (18.5%*5.5%*1.5%)

-3.5-0.5: NJ must beat MAN at least 3.5-0.5 (7%*5.5%*5.5%)

-3-1: NJ must beat MAN 4-0 (1.5%*11.5%*5.5%)

3-1: Philly must beat MAN

-4-0: NJ must beat MAN at least 3.5-0.5 (7%*1.5%*11.5%)

-3.5-0.5: NJ msut beat MAN 4-0 (1.5%*5.5%*11.5%)

e.g. case (ii) has a .107% chance of happening.

Totaled, PHI has a .813% chance of qualifying for the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the division.

NEW JERSEY

(a) NJ cliches a playoff spot with a win over NY and at least a tie against MAN (37.5%*62.5%) [23.4%]

NJ could still make the playoffs with a win over NY and a loss to MAN if [9.29%]

i) NY fails to win against PHI (62.5%*37.5%*37.5%)

ii) NY defeats PHI and NJ had defeated NY...

4-0: NJ needs NY beats PHI 4-0 and NJ scores 1.5 points against MAN (1.5%*19.5%*1.5%)

OR NY 3.5-0.5 and NJ scores at least 1 point (5.5%*31%*1.5%)

OR NY 3-1 and NJ scores at least .5 points (11.5%*36.5%*1.5%)

OR NY 2.5-1.5 (19.5%*1.5%)

3.5-0.5: NJ needs NY beats PHI 3-1 and NJ scores 1.5 points (11.5%*19.5%*5.5%)

(b) Should NJ-NY result in a draw, NJ requires: [20%]

NJ defeats MAN and NY fails to defeat PHI (37.5%*62.5%*25%)

or

NJ draws MAN and NY loses to PHI (25%*37.5%*25%)

or

NJ loses to MAN 2.5-1.5 and NY loses to PHI 4-0 and PHI fails to win against MAN (19.5%*1.5%*62.5%*25%)

or

NJ defeats MAN and MAN fails to defeat PHI (37.5%*62.5%*25%)

(c)

Should NJ lose to NY 1.5-2.5, NJ requires [0.52%]

-NJ defeats MAN 4-0 and NY loses to PHI or (1.5%*37.5%*19.5%)

-NJ defeats MAN 3.5-0.5 and NY loses to PHI 3-1 or worse or (5.5%*18.5%*19.5%)

-NJ defeats MAN 3-1 and NY loses to PHI 3.5-0.5 or worse or (11.5%*7%*19.5%)

-NJ defeats MAN 2.5-1.5 and NY loses to PHI 4-0 (19.5%*1.5%*19.5%)

Should NJ lose to NY 1-3, NJ requires [0.02%]

-NJ defeats MAN 4-0 and NY loses to PHI 3.5-0.5 or worse or (7%*1.5%*11.5%)

-NJ defeats MAN 3.5-0.5 and NY loses to PHI 4-0 (1.5%*5.5%*11.5%)

OR [5.2%]

NJdefeats MAN and MAN loses to PHI (37.5%*37.5%*37.5%)

NEW YORK

(a) [41.04%]

NY needs a win and either

a.i) NY not losing to PHI (37.5%*62.5%) [23.4%]

a.ii) NY losing to PHI and NJ not defeating MAN (37.5%*37.5%*62.5%) [8.79%]

a.iii) NY losing to PHI, NJ defeating MAN, but NY winning the GP tiebreaker over NJ [4.89%]

-NY beat NJ 2.5-1.5 [2.29%]

>NY loses to PHI 2.5-1.5 and NJ does not go 4-0 (19.5%*36.5%*19.5%)

>NY loses to PHI 3-1 and NJ scores less than 3.5 (11.5%*31%*19.5%)

>NY loses to PHI 3.5-0.5 and NJ wins 2.5-1.5 (5.5%*19.5%*19.5%)

-NY beat NJ 3-1 [2.60%]

>NY loses to PHI 2.5-1.5 or 3-1 (31%*11.5%*37.5%)

>NY loses to PHI 3.5-0.5 and NJ does not go 4-0 (5.5%*36.5%*11.5%)

>NY loses to PHI 4-0 and NJ scores less than 3.5 (1.5%*31%*11.5%)

>NY beat NJ 3.5-0.5 or 4-0 (7%*37.5%*37.5%)

a.iv) NY losing to PHI, NJ defeating MAN, PHI defeats MAN (37.5%*37.5%*37.5%*37.5%) [1.98%]

a.v) NY loses to PHI, NJ defeats MAN, PHI draws MAN, NY wins GP tiebreaker over MAN and loses to NJ [not possible?]

a.iv) NY losing to PHI, NJ defeating MAN, PHI defeats MAN (37.5%*37.5%*37.5%*37.5) [1.98%]

a.v) NY loses to PHI, NJ defeats MAN, PHI draws MAN, NY wins GP tiebreaker over MAN

(b) [21.99%]

NY draws against NJ and either

b.i) NY defeats PHI and NJ fails to defeat MAN (37.5%*62.5%*25%) [5.86%]

b.ii) NY defeats PHI, NJ defeats MAN, NY wins the GP tiebreaker over NJ [4.59%]

-NY defeats PHI at least 3-1 or (31%*37.5%*25%)

-NY defeats PHI 2.5-1.5 and NJ does not defeat MAN 4-0 (18.5%*36.5%*25%)

b.iii) NY defeats PHI, NJ defeats MAN, PHI defeats or draws MAN (37.5%*37.5%*37.5%*62.5%) [3.30%]

b.iv) NY defeats PHI, NJ defeats MAN, PHI loses to MAN, NY loses the GP tiebreak to NJ but defeats MAN [impossible]

b.v) NY draws PHI, NJ fails to defeat MAN (25%*62.5%*25%) [3.91%]

b.vi) NY draws PHI, NJ defeats MAN, PHI defeats MAN (25%*37.5%*37.5%*25%) [0.88%]

b.vii) NY loses to PHI, NJ loses to MAN other than NJ losing 2.5-1.5 and NY losing 4-0. (37.5%*37.5%*25%-18.5%*1.5%*25%) [3.45%]

e.g. NY has a 63.03% chance of making the playoffs.

Finally,

MANHATTAN

gets the rest, e.g. 200%-.813%-58.33%-63.03%=77.8%.

New Jersey Knockouts (USCL)

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