You sit at the board, slightly tired, missing the right moves, your position is falling apart, but luckily you can force the draw. However, there's one problem. You were actually winning.

Lately, due to the world championship and the currently ongoing candidates, there's been a lot of talk about the mental and physical form of players. Both Anand and Carlsen had been working out in the gym extensively before the world championship (a trend started by Bobby Fischer). Kasparov commented that Aronian has had trouble with his nerves at critical events. And there has been ample speculation about the supposed 'Carlsen effect', where people supposedly play worse than they usually do against Magnus.

None of these things relate directly to the common idea of skill in chess, 'how good you actually are in chess'. But of course, that's (at least partially) a farce. I think that how good you actually are in chess has just as much to do with your stamina and mental strength as it has with how much you understand about chess. And I think that a good understanding of how these things come together is fundamental in getting better as well.

In many ways, playing a chess game is managing yourself. Not just by making sure you stay focussed, but also by maintaining the right attitude about the game.

One recent example of this that I can give is from the following position, which I reached in an OTB game:

RC Woods (1568) vs. NN (1638)

17 Feb 2014 | ECO: B98 | 1-0

1. e4c52. Nf3d63. d4cxd44. Nxd4Nf65. Nc3e66. Bg5Be77. f4O-O8. Qf3a69. O-O-Oe5?this really surprised me, I expected something like Nbd7.

10. fxe5[[Bg4??I must be honest and say I missed the move, but quite soon I realized it wasn't as strong as it might have looked.

(10... Nfd711. Bxe7Qxe712. exd6Qxd613. Nf5+2.2 stockfish )(10... dxe511. Nf5Nbd712. Bc4)11. exf6Bxf3(11... Bxf612. Qxg4Bxg5+13. Kb1would have been less bad than the actual line but is still +7 )12. fxe7Qb6(12... Qa5)13. exf8=Q+Kxf814. Nxf3]]Nd715. Be7+!a fun tactic

15... Kg816. Bxd6stockfish likes Rxd6 I don't want to take any chances and this looked more solid.

16... Nf617. Bg3similarly prophylactic. I don't like that black is getting some say on the dark squares after ..Ng4, now at least f7 is covered and my rook is unobstructed.

17... Rc818. Nd5I thought this practically forced some exchanging which I liked.

18... Nxd5(18... Qe619. Nxf6+Qxf620. Kb1)19. exd5Qc5black prepares an intricate plan to mate white.

20. Bd3which fails only by the narrowest of margins.

20... b521. d6and off she is.

21... a5a massive pawn storm approaches

22. Rhe1with the obvious idea

(22. Rhe1a423. d7Rd824. Re8+Rxe825. dxe8=R+)22... Qc623. d7Rd824. Bh4I wasn't afraid of ..Qh6+ because of Bg5.

24... f6(24... g525. Bxg5Rxd726. Ne5Qd5now here stockfish goes dicking around with moves like Bf5 but really white can just clean this right up the human way 27. Bxh7+Kxh728. Rxd5Rxd529. Nf3where really the only danger might be ending up with N+B vs lonely king. )25. Be4Qc726. Bg3here I had seen that the queen *must* keep covering Bd6 or see the black king be mated somewhere really quick. I contemplated Bd4+ first and chose this because in that line, the threat would be one move closer and harder to miss.

(26. Bd5+Kf827. Bg3Qxd728. Bb3g6the recommended move says a lot about this position. )26... Qa7and my opponent misses it.

27. Bd5+and black resigns

(27. Bd5+Kf8(27... Kh828. Re8+Rxe829. dxe8=Q#)28. Bd6#)

The thing here is that ..Bg4? was a mistake. Instead of winning material, black is decimated. But the point, the thing that struck me most, was that after realizing the mistake, black played ALL the moves from his original plan, DESPITE realizing how bad it was. Now I'm not saying this particular game could be saved, but he could have come out much better nonetheless. And what happened has nothing to do with chess, and everything with psychology - we saw an example of the sunk cost fallacy (google it, there's a good explanation of this on the lifehack site). Black thought that since he had invested moves and material in his plan, he should follow through or all would be for nothing - and he quickly played it out. What he should have done is cutting his losses and accept the new reality, but for humans this is hard emotionally.

A chess game, however, unlike our emotional state, knows no history - every position exists by itself as it is - and every position has it's own best move. A position doesn't care how you got there and it doesn't care how exactly you visualised it's future before you got there. It has it's own truth, and it's up to you to respect it.

another example I have of this is from my very first OTB game:

RC_Woods vs. NN (1639)

9 Sep 2009 | ECO: B72 | 0-1

B72: Sicilian Dragon: 6 Be3, lines with h3+Bc4 and sidelines

1. e4c52. Nf3d6Controls e5

3. d4cxd44. Nxd4Black is behind in developement. Black's piece can't move: f8

4... Nf6Black threatens to win material: Nf6xe4

5. Nc3g6Covers f5

6. Be3Black is behind in developement

6... Ng4??(6... Bg7)7. Bc4?I figured tha t I play better with superior development. Also, after Nxe3 fxe3 I would have an open file for my rook after 0-0, which could help exert pressure. (but it is risky since it are ISOLATED doubled pawns, which is even worse).

(7. Bb5+secures victory 7... Nc68. Nxc6bxc69. Bxc6+Bd710. Bd4Bxc611. Bxh8(11. Qxg4?!e512. Be3f513. exf5Qd7))7... Nxe38. fxe3Black has the pair of bishops

8... Bh6Black threatens to win material: Bh6xe3. Black is behind in development.

9. Qf3White has a mate threat

9... O-O10. O-Oe6Consolidates d5

11. Rad1Nc612. Nxc6(12. Ndb5?!This looks good (attacking a weak pawn) but isn't better than Nxc6 12... Ne513. Qh3Qg514. Nxd6Qxe3+15. Qxe3Bxe3+16. Kh1Ng417. e5Nxe518. Bb3)12... bxc613. e5?(13. Qg3!?would keep White alive 13... e514. Rf3)13... d514. Ne4?Fritz doesn't mind too much since objectively e5? lost almost as much anyway. It is still a blunder of course.

(14. Bb3This would be the best move but white still comes out worse. 14... Bg715. Ne2Bxe516. c3Ba617. Rf2Bxe218. Qxe2And white is clearly worse. )14... Qb6??Black pins: Qb6xe3. allows the opponent back into the game

(14... dxe4a pity that Black didn't try this 15. Qxf7+Rxf716. Rxd8+Kg717. Rxf7+Kxf7)15. Nf6+Kh816. Ng4White threatens to win material: Ng4xh6

(16. Rde1!?is worthy of consideration 16... dxc417. Qh3)16... Bg7(16... Bxe3+17. Nxe3dxc418. Qf6+Kg819. Kh1!Only this or Rf2 keep a significant advantage, but it is't immediately clear why the e3 knight can remain unprotected. 19... Qxe3?20. Rd8Rxd8(20... Qg1+Takes longer to be mated but is hardly more beautiful 21. Kxg1Rxd822. Qxf7+Kh823. Qf6+Kg824. Qxd8+Kg725. Qf8#)21. Qxf7+Kh822. Qf6+Kg823. Qxd8+Kg724. Qf8#)17. Bb3Ba6Black threatens to win material: Ba6xf1

(17... a5!?should be examined more closely 18. Ba4Qxb219. Bxc6Rb8)18. Rf2Rad819. Qh3Qc7Exerts pressure on the isolated pawn

20. Nf6h621. Qg3Was practically forced

21... c522. c3!I correctly evaluated that I would need my light squared bishop to achieve more in the attack.

22... Qb823. Bc2I didn't see compelling reasons to postpone this move

(23. e4)23... Bxf6??gives the opponent new chances

(23... Qxb2This draws, though it would be a risky enterprise to play it without the long calculation that shows so. 24. Bxg6Qxc325. Bxf7Rxf726. Qg6Bxf627. Qxh6+Kg828. Rxf6Bd329. Rxf7Kxf730. Qf6+Ke831. Qxe6+Kf832. Qf6+Ke833. Qe6+Kf834. Qf6+Ke835. Qe6+)24. Rxf6This was the only recapture that kept the attack going.

(24. exf6?!Qxg3(24... Qxb2??the pawn contains a lethal dose of poison 25. Qh4Kh726. Bxg6+fxg627. Rxb2)25. hxg3Rd7)24... Qxb225. Bxg6!Decoy: g6

25... fxg6(25... fxg626. Rxf8+Double attack (26. Rxe6Decoy ))26. Qxg6[[Rxf6??simply worsens the situation

(26... Bd327. Qxh6+Kg828. Qg5+Kh829. Rdf1Qxg2+30. Qxg2Rg831. Rh6+Bh732. Rf7Rxg2+33. Kxg2Rg8+34. Kf3Rg735. Rxg7Kxg736. Rxe6)27. exf6This is the strongest move, but I thought it to be even stronger because I didn't see black's strongest reply.

(27. Qxf6+Kh728. Qe7+Kh829. Qxd8+It would take some time to mate but the endgame is very easy. 29... Kh730. Qe7+Kh831. Qf6+Kh732. Qxe6Qxc333. Qxa6Qxe3+34. Kh1Qxe535. Qxa7+Kg636. Qxc5h537. Qc6+Kf738. Rf1+Ke739. Rb1Kd840. Qa8+Ke741. Rb7+Ke642. Qe8+Kf643. Rf7+Kg644. Qg8+Kh645. Rh7#)27... Qxg2+I didn't see this move and was too shocked to properly calculate that I was still completely winning.

28. Kxg2??A huge blunder. I was thinking that I should at least end up with the more centralized king, but white has so much better.

(28. Qxg2ends the debate 28... Rg829. Rd2Bd330. f7Rf831. Qh3Kg732. Rg2+Kxf733. Qg3Bg634. Qxg6+Ke735. Qg3)28... Rg829. Qxg8+!takes home the point

29... Kxg830. Kf3?This was a bad move too. In general I played this endgame faster than I should have, mad at myself that I spoiled the easy win.

(30. e4!?keeps an even firmer grip 30... Bc431. Kf3Bxa2)30... Kf731. e4Kxf6]]32. exd5exd533. Kf4(33. Rxd5Bb734. Ke4Ke6)33... Ke6Somewhere aroun d here my opponent offered a draw, but I felt that it should be winning for white so I rejected.

34. Re1+Kd635. Kf5?!I should have tried to put the rook behind the enemy pawns. (for example Rg1 and then advancing)

35... Bd3+36. Kf6Be437. c4a538. cxd5Bxd539. a3c440. Kg6?!now the game is drawn with best play.

(40. Rd1)40... c3White has to watch this pawn

41. Rc1c242. Kxh6Be443. h4Kc544. Kg5Kd445. Kf4Bh746. Kf3??(46. a4Kc347. Ke5Bd348. Kd5Kb249. Rxc2+Kxc250. Kd4only move. 50... Be251. h5Kd252. h6Bd353. Kc5Bc254. h7Bxh755. Kb5Be456. Kxa5)46... Kd347. Re1Bg648. Re3+(48. Kf2doesn't change the outcome of the game 48... a449. Re6c1=Q50. Rd6+Kc351. Rc6+Kb252. Rxc1Kxc1)48... Kd2(48... Kd4and Black has triumphed 49. Re1Bh5+50. Kf4)49. Re2+Kd1(49... Kc3secures the win 50. Re7c1=Q51. Kg3)50. Rg2c1=Q(50... c1=Q51. Rg1+Kd252. Rxc1Kxc1)

I was so shocked that I didn't stop to think if the move that I missed (..Qxg2+) was really such a shocker and if the forced continuation I saw was really forced - and I quickly played a few bad moves in a row to spoil a complete win. Had I recaptured with my queen and then prepared to take his rook with my rook, his king could never have reached my passed pawn.

In chess, therefore, to summarize it, we have to control our emotions. And this can be very hard. It can be very hard to carefully and painstakingly craft a winning position over the course of three hours, and then, when you've mistakingly equalized in one move, accept that you shouldn't try to force something that can't be forced. It doesn't matter that it's unfair, because it's simply how it is, and you'll (deservedly) lose if you can't wrap your head around that.

Now the title of this blog was 'confidence and condition', and as I get to the final game, I'll get to the connection between the two. The last week, my condition has been a bit sub par - tired and restless. A loss of focus, so to speak - and it sparked a huge losing streak in live chess, costing me about a 100 points, also because I kept playing even when I wasn't actually there with my mind. A bit like with poker, where a player will tilt after some losses, dramatically multiplying them.

Now it's not that I'm afraid that the points won't come back (quickly), as I'm feeling better already, but what it did do was that it slightly hurt my (chess) confidence, just before I had to play an OTB match. The interesting result of this was that I consistently underestimated my position, to the point where I thought I had I'd better force a draw where I was (close to) winning. I had enough time - I just didn't consider my possibilities fully anymore, haunted by the ghost of my online losing streak (I was more concerned with not losing than with winning):

RC Woods (1563) vs. NN (1404)

ECO: C01 | 1/2-1/2

1. e4e62. d4d53. exd5exd54. c4I'm well aware that the opening choice is not that ambitious - but it guarantees a game and I wasn't in the mood for the tense advance french I usually play.

4... c65. Nc3Bb46. Bd3Nf67. Nf3Bxc3+8. bxc3I thought it was slightly odd how black dislikes his bishop pair, but soon thereafter I turned to disliking my pawn island.

8... O-O9. O-OBg4here I'm significantly better, but I thought I was about equal.

10. Bg5Nbd711. h3played because I couldn't formulate a clear plan for myself other than weakening the white a2-g8 diagonal - it's not very strong but at the same time it does work out and it's not losing or anything.

11... Bh512. g4?!Bg613. Bxg6fxg614. cxd5it was fine, but soon I turned to worrying that I had created a very weak very exposed backward pawn.

14... cxd515. Ne5mostly played because I don't want to leave it hanging on f3 to a possible discovered rook attack by the Rf8.

15... Qc816. Re1I'm hanging c3 and it's not completely on purpose - I just considered a number of moves and winded up picking the last one before I realized it didn't do all the things I thought the perfect move should do.

16... Ne4I was surprised my opponent didn't take on c3, but in retrospect I overestimated how bad that would have been, and that's mental state right there. it would have worse or lost.

17. Rxe4this was perhaps my one moment to shine - the moment where the weak diagonal I created rides in to save me. If not for this move, I had been completely lost.

17... dxe418. Qb3+Kh819. Nf7+Rxf720. Qxf7Now again, I begin underestimating my position. I was happy finding the tactic, but now I'm worried - an exchange for an exchange, is my final position actually better?

20... Qxc3And the danger I overestimated before becomes a reality, the c3 pawn is lost. I kept looking at my opponents plus pawn besides the board thinking about my continuation.

21. Rb1I considered Rc1 followed by Rc7, but thought Qxd4 would probably hold with ANOTHER plus pawn for my opponent. I simply didn't look at my own opportunities anymore. still, Rb1 is ok.

(21. Rc1Qxd422. Rc7h6!23. Be3Qd1+24. Kg2(24. Kh2Qd6+25. Bf4Rf826. Bxd6Rxf727. Rxb7a6)24... Qf3+25. Qxf3exf3+26. Kxf3Ne5+27. Ke2Rd8)21... Nb622. Bf6and I chicken out, thinking I'm not playing so well and am worse (the rook can't even get in now, this is over!) when in fact I'm clearly better. As it turns out, the draw while there offered various ways of going awry through human error that I hadn't all foreseen, so in a way I took a real risk to draw in a winning position.

22... gxf623. Qxf6+Kg824. Qe6+Kg725. Qe7+Kg8(25... Kh6??it can be drawn via Qh4+ Qe7+, but it's also won 26. g5+Kh527. Qg7Qxh328. Rb3Qg4+29. Rg3Qxg3+30. fxg3Kxg5)26. Qe6+Kg7(26... Kf827. Qf6+Ke8I thought that even without other pieces black could not escape this goose chase checkfest, but that's wrong: 28. Rb5!while it's a logical move I don't think the win is particularly easy in general (28. Qh8+?what my opponent feared, but it's just a draw 28... Kf729. Qxh7+Kf630. g5+Kxg531. Rb5+Kf632. Re5Qc1+33. Kh2Qf4+34. Kg1Qc1+35. Kh2)(28. Qe6+?Kd829. Qd6+(29. Qg8+??one of the goosechase variations I calculated, but whereas upon playing 22. Bf6 I thought this was probably drawing as well this clearly is not after ..Qc7 and ..Nd7. 29... Kc730. Qf7+Nd7ultimately the knight is a nice checkstopper 31. Qf4+Kd832. Qg5+Ke8and white runs out of checks and out of bishop. so loss much hurt very oh dear, wow. )29... Kc830. Qf8+Kc731. Qf4+Kd832. Qf8+)28... Nd729. Qe6+Kd830. Rxb7Qc831. Qg8+Ke732. Qxh7+Kd833. Qh8+Ke734. Qe5+Kd835. Qg5+Ke836. Qxg6+Kd837. Qg5+Ke838. Qh5+Ke739. Qe5+Kd8this is +5,85 but material is even - it's the tactic that comes next that justifies this slugfest. 40. Qd5Rb8(40... a6Rb8 is necessary because else if something stupid like a6 41. Rxd7+Qxd742. Qxa8+)41. Rxa7Rb1+42. Kg2Rb843. g5e344. fxe3Ke7basically what happens is black has no firepower to stop the pawn from queening AND save all the material queenside. )27. Qe7+

All in all, there was a lot to learn from this game, and it didn't have (so much) to do with the chess - I played better than I thought I did and therefore I (perhaps) scored worse than I could have - because it matters how you feel (and how you control your feelings) during the game. It's like Nakamura said about being coached by kasparov:

One thing with Garry, and I think it is due in a large part to his Soviet training, he'll never quite understand that you have to be able to criticize constructively. When you have someone who is always on your case and it's never good enough no matter how you win a game, it just brings you down, you lose confidence. And as a chess player you have to be confident, you have to believe in yourself. - Hikaru Nakamura

And I don't think the key message of the quote is about Kasparov - I believe he's a tough coach but I think he's also just a tough guy so that's a take it or leave it thing - the key message is that confidence is just as instrumental to the result as your actual knowledge about chess. You have to enable yourself to do what you can do.

And then you get better.

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