I have converted everything into algebraic.
This section deals with all lines after:
1. e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Ng5 Bc5 5.Nxf7 Bxf2+ 6.Kf1 Qe7 7.Nxh8 d5 8.exd5 Nd4 9.d6 cxd6
At this point, white players should look at variation B or C for the advantage.
A: 10.c3?
At this point, I conclude that c3 is an error that allows black a massive attack which should win. White cannot afford losing any more time.
10…Bg4!
This move is critical, all other moves leave black without compensation for the material deficit.
11.Qa4+ Kf8!?
This prevents further attack and allows a massive attack.
A1: 12.cxd4? exd4 13.Kxf2 Ne4+ 14.Kg1
Forced as all other king moves lead to mate
14…Qh4 15.h3 Qf2+ 16.Kh2 Qg3+ 17.Kg1 Qf2+ perpetual, but black can do better.
A1 continued: 17…Bf3! 18.Bf1
Forced due to the threat of Qxg2# and Rh2 is met by Qf2+ with mate coming.
18…Ng5!!
This is the key move which wins for black. Computer did not see this move coming.
19.Qa3 Re8! 20.Nf7 Kxf7 21.Qb3+ Kf8 22.Qd3 Re1 23.Qf5+ Ke7 24.Rh2 Be2 25.Rh1 Nf3+ 26.Qxf3 Bxf3 27.Rh2 Be2 28.Kh1 Rxf1#
A2: 12.Bd3 Nh5! 13.Bxh7 Qf6 14.Ng6+ Kf7 15.Qc4+ Ke8 16.Nf4
16.Qa4+ Kd8 17.Qa5+ b6 18.Qxe5 dxe5 19.Nf4 Qxf4 20.cxd4 Bxd4+ 21.Ke1 Qf2#
16…Nxf4 17.cxd4 Bxd4 and black wins
A3: 12.d3?
White is intending to prevent Ne4
12…Ne4!!
Disregarding white’s move; by threatening checkmate, black gains time to get the queen into the attack. Computer never saw it coming.
13.dxe4
Only move
13…Qf6
Only move
14.Bg5
Again, the only move
14…Qxg5 15.cxd4
White’s best response, all other moves worsen the situation.
15…Qf4
Now the threat is back and white is toast.
Two variations white can play.
16.Nd2 Bxd4+ 17.Nf3 Bxf3 18.gxf3 Qxf3+ 19.Ke1 Qxh1+ 20.Kd2 Qxa1 21.Qb5 Qxb2+ 22.Qxb2 Bxb2 and black should win the endgame.
16.Be2 Bh4+! 17.Bf3 Qe3!! 18.g3 Qxf3+ 19.Kg1 Bh3 20.Ng6+ hxg6 21.Qe8+ Rxe8 22.Nd2 Qg2#
B: 10.h3
I have concluded that if black plays 10…Bg3 this variation should end with an endgame where black has to fight for a draw with best play. The h pawn slows any black attacks via g4 leaving black with little counter play. Black’s should play 10…Bh4. Black will get a short term initiative for the exchange. Whether or not black has enough compensation is not completely clear.
Now, SirDavid’s analysis continued:
10…Bg3 11.c3 Nf5 12.Bf7+ Kd8 13.Qb3 d5 14.Na3 Qc5
The problem with this line is white’s intermezzo.
15.d4! exd4 16.Bg5 bxc3 17.Qxd5! Qxd5 18.Bxd5 cxb2 19.Rb1 Kc7 20.Bxf6 gxf6 21.Ke2 Be5 22.Rhd1 Nd6 23.Nf7 Nxf7 24.Bxf7 Bf5 25.Nc4 Rf8 26.Nxe5 Bxb1 27.Rxb1 fxe5 28.Bd5 and white has a significant endgame advantage.
Black can improve with 13…Qf8, although, another tough endgame arises.
13…Qf8 14.Be6 Qxh8 15.Bxc8 Rxc8 16.Qxb7 Qe8 17.Na3 Bh4 18.Kg1 Ng3 19.Kh2 Nxh1 20.Kxh1 when black is fighting for a draw a pawn down.
13.Bb3 seems like an improvement over 13.Qb3
13.Bb3 Be6 14.Bxe6 Qxe6 15.Qb3 Qxb3 16.axb3 Ke7 17.Ke2 a6 18.d3 Rxh8 19.Bg5 and the endgame is difficult once more.
Black has a much better 12th move if he wants a fighting chance.
B1: 12.Bf7+ Kf8 13.Qb3 g5
14.d3?
An error, white’s plan is simply too slow. In addition, it accelerates white’s attack
14…Bh4!
After this move, white is losing in all lines. The e4 advance should be the response to white’s move.
15.Rg1 e4!
This is the refutation.
16.Bg6
This move loses by force. Other moves include:
16.d4? e3 and white has a lost position.
16.g3? exd3 and white again has a lost position.
16.Qd1? Ng4 17.hxg4 Qf6 and black wins
16…Ng3+ 17.Kf2 Be6 18.c4 (18.Qa3 Kg7; 18.Qa4 Kg7; 18.Qc2 Kg7; 18.Qb4 Kg8; 18.Qd1 e3+ 19.Bxe3 (19.Kxe3 Bg4+ 20.Be4 Bxd1; 19.Kf3 Bd5+ 20.Be4 Qe5; 19.Ke1 Bxh3) 19…Bxh3 20.Re1 Nf5+ 21.Kg1 Nxe3; 18.Qb5 Ng4+ 19.hxg4 Bxg4 20.Ke3 exd3+ 21.Kd4 a6 22.Qa5 (22.Qb6 Rc8; 22.Qa4 Qe5+ 23.Kxd3 Qe2+ 24.Kd4 Nf5+ 25.Bxf5 Bxf5 26.Ng6+ hxg6 27.Qc2 Qe5+ 28.Kc4 Qb5+ 29.Kd4 Qc5#; 22.Qd5 Ne2+ 23.Kxd3 (23.Kc4 Be6) Nf4+ 24.Kc2 Nxd5) 22…b5! Black wins) 18…exd3 19.Bxd3 Nh1+ 20.Kf3 g4+ 21.Ke3 Bxc4+ 22.Kd2 Nd4+ 23.Kc2 Bxb3+ and I doubt white can survive.
15.Kg1 e4!
Once again, the critical move
16.dxe4 Nxe4 17.Qb5 (17.Qc2 Neg3; 17.Qd1 Bf2+) 17…Bf2+ 18.Kh2 Bd7 19.Qd5 Bg3+ 20.Kg1 Nxc3 21.Qd2 Ne2+ 22.Kf1 Bb5 23.Bc4 Bxc4 24.Na3 Qf6 25.Ng6+ hxg6 26.Nxc4 Nfd4+ 27.Qf4 Nxf4 28.Ne5 Nxg2+ 29.Nf3 Qxf3+ 30.Kg1 Ne2#
15.Qc2 e4! 16.dxe4 (16.Bd2 Kg7)
White cannot afford the e pawn to advance to e3 and leaving two pieces in the corner as he loses in all lines.
16…Nxe4 17.g4
Only move for white, all other moves worsen his position.
17…Nfg3+ 18.Kg2 Nxh1 19.Be3 (19.Kxh1 Ng3+) 19…Qe5 20.Bd4 Qf4 21.Bd5 Nhf2 22.Bxf2 Nxf2 23.Qxh7 Qg3+ 24.Kg1 Qh3+ 25.Bg2 Qd3+ 26.Qxd3 Nxd3 27.Ng6+ Kg7 28.Nxh4 gxh4 29.b3 Bxg4 30.Bxb7 Re8 31.Na3 h3 32.Nb5 Re7 33.Bc6 Re2 34.Kg1 Rd2 35.Nd4 Kh6 and black should win the endgame.
14.Bc4 Bh4 15.Rg1 d5 16.Bxd5? (16.Be2 Kg7 17.g4 Ng3+ 18.Ke1 Be6 19.Kd1 Nfe4 20.Ng6 hxg6 21.Bb5 (21.Rg2 Nxe2 22.Rxe2 Nf2+ 23.Kc2 d4; 21.Rg2 Nxe2 22.Rxe2 Nf2+ 23.Ke1 Nxh3+; 21.Rg2 Nxe2 22.Kxe2 Qf7 23.Qb5 (23.d3 Rf8) 23…Rf8; 21.Rg2 Nxe2 22.Rxe2 Nf2+ 23.Rxf2 Bxf2 24.Qb5 Rf8 25.Qe2 e4 26.Kc2 Qf6 27.b3 Qf3and black should win the endgame) 21…d4 22.Qa4 a6 23.Bd3 Qf7 and black has a significant advantage although this may be best for white) 16…Nxd5 17.Qxd5?? (17.g4 Qf6 18.Ke2 Nf4+ 19.Kd1 Nxh3 was white’s only hope) 17…Be6 18.Qb5 (18.Qf3 e4; 18.Qd3 Qc5; 18.Qe4 Ng3+) 18…Nd6 and black wins.
To conclude, 13…g5 is the refutation of 13.Qb3
13.Qf3 e4 14.Qd1 g5 15.Bb3 (15.d3 e3; 15.h4 Ng4 16.hxg5 Qxg5 17.Rxh7 Ng7 18.Ng6+ Kxf7) 15…Ng4 16.Qxg4 (16.hxg4 Ne3+ 17.Ke2 Nxd1 18.Kxd1 Bxg4+; 16.Qc2 Bh4; 16.Ke2 Nf2 17.Qg1 Qf6) 16…Ne3+ 17.dxe3 Qf6+ 18.Ke2 Qf2+ 19.Kd1 Bxg4+ 20.hxg4 Qxg2 21.Re1 Bxe1 22.Kxe1 d5 23.Nd2 Rd8 24.Nf1 Rd6 and white’sposition is grim.
13.d3 Qd8 14.Qb3 Ke7 15.Ng6+ hxg6 16.Bxg6 d5 17.Bg5 Kf8 18.Nd2 Qd6 19.Ke2 Ne7 20.Bxf6 gxf6 21.Ne4 Qa6 22.Nxg3 Nxg6 23.Nh5 Be6 24.g4 f5 25.gxf5 Bxf5 26.Qxd5 Ke7 27.Qc5+ Kd7 28.c4 Rh8 29.Ng7 Nf4+ 30.Kd2 Bxd3 31.Qxe5 Qxc4 32.Rac1 andwhite is winning for once.
13.d3 d5 14.b3 Be6 15.Bg6 Kg8 16.Bxf5 Bxf5 17.Qf3 Nh5 18.Ke2 Nf4+ 19.Kd1 Qg5 20.Bxf4 Bxf4 21.Nf7 Kxf7 22.Rf1 Kg6 23.g4 Be6 24.c4 dxc4 25.bxc4 Qe7 26.Nc3 Rd8 27.Kc2 Kh6 28.h4 Qd7 29.g5+ Kg6 30.Rg1 Kf7 31.Rab1 b6 32.Rbe1 Kg8 33.h5 Rc8 34.a4
This is the best line for black I could find. White has a significant endgame edge, but black may be able to draw with best play. Black has no winning chances though.
10…Bh4!
This is much better than 10…Bg3
11.c3 Nf5 12.Kg1 d5 13.Bb3 e4 14.Qe2 Ng3 15.Qf2 Bd7 16.a4 Nf5 17.Qe2 0-0-0 (17…Ng3 18.Qf2 is draw by repetition) 18.g4 Qc5+ 19.Kg2 Ng3 20.Qe3 Qxe3 21.dxe3 Nxh1 22.Nf7 Rf8 23.Nd6+ Kc7 24.Nb5+ Bxb5 25.axb5 Nf2 and white is fighting for a draw.
11.c3 Nf5 12.Kg1 d5 13.Be2 Ne4 14.g4 Qc5+ 15.d4 exd4 16.b4 Qb6 17.Bb5+ Kf8 18.Kg2 dxc3 19.Rf1 Qxb5 20.Na3 c2 21.Qxc2 Qxb4 22.gxf5 Kg8 23.Qd3 and I think white has a considerable advantage. Computer still thinks black has a slight advantage. This looks like the best play by both sides though. Maybe someone might find something else?
C: 10.Kxf2
This is by far the most aggressive continuation.
10…Bg4
At this point, black should play 10...d5 instead. Now white has three queen moves.
C1: 11.Qg1 Ne4+ 12.Ke3 Qg5+ 13.Kxe4 Bf5+ 14.Kd5 Be6+ 15.Ke4 Bxc4 16.Qxd4
Qf4#
C2: 11.Qe1 Nxc2 12.Qf1 Nxa1 13.b3 0-0-0 14.Bb2 d5 15.Bd3 e4 16.Qc1+ Kb8 17.Be2 e3+ 18.dxe3 Ne4+ 19.Ke1 Rc8 and black has the advantage. Black’s initiative more than compensates for the piece deficit.
C3: 11.Qf1 0-0-0 12.h3 Rf8 13.Kg1 Ne4 14.Nf7 Be6 15.Qd3 Bxc4 16.Qxc4+ Kb8 17.Nc3 Ng3 18.Kh2 Nxh1 19.Kxh1 Qxf7 20.Qxf7 Rxf7 21.b3 Nxc2 22.Rb1 and black only has a pawn for his piece, but there may be improvements later.
C3: 11.Qf1 0-0-0 12.Kg1
This is a very risky move as white will come under heavy pressure. In the end, white should be able to survive with a significant advantage. White has very strong resources.
12…Rf8 13.Na3
13.Nc3? allows 13…d5 followed by Ne4 and white will have problems
13…Nd5 14.Qe1 Nf4 15.h4
This is the key move that stops black’s checkmate threats and allows white to survive and come out with the advantage. It is up to black to prove if he can continue with his threats.
C3: 11.Qf1 0-0-0 12.Na3 d5 13.h3 Ne4+ gives black a big attack, but white can survive.
14.Kg1 Ng3 15.Qf7 Nge2+ 16.Bxe2 Nxe2+ 17.Kh2 Qh4 18.Rg1 Qg3+ 19.Kh1 Bxh3 20.Qf3 Qxf3 21.gxf3 Nxh1 22.Kxh1 Rxh8 and white is a piece up in the endgame.
C3: 11.Qf1 0-0-0 12.Nf7 d5
Two replies:
C31: 13.Nc3 Qxf7 14.Bb3 Qg6 15.d3 Rf8 16.Ke1 Nd7 17.Qg1 Bf3 18.Rb1 Bxg2 19.Bxd5 Nxc2+ 20.Kd2 Nb4 21.Be4 Qg5+ 22.Qe3 Qxe3+ 23.Kxe3 Nc2+ 24.Ke2 Nd4+ 25.Ke1 Bxh1 26.Bxh1 Nc5 27.Be3 Nxd3+ 28.Kd2 Nf2 29.Bd5 Ng4 30.Bxd4 exd4 31.Be6+ Kc7 32.Bxg4 dxc3+ 33.Kxc3
Black has a line to equalize
13…Rf8 14.Nxd5 Nxd5 15.Bxd5 Rxf7=
C32: 13.Kg1
Only way for white to gain an advantage.
13…Rf8 14.c3 Nc2 15.Na3 Nxa1 16.Bxd5 Nxd5 17.Qc4
Black’s best response to 10.Kxf2 is 10…d5
11.Be2 Ne4+ 12. Kg1 Qc5 13. Kf1 Qf8+ 14. Bf3 Bg4 15. d3 Nxf3 16. gxf3 Bxf3 17. Qe1 Bxh1+ 18.Kg1 is better for Black.
11.c3!? Ng4+ 12. Ke1 Qf6 13. Rf1 Qh4+ 14. g3 Qxh2 15. Bb5+ Ke7 16. Rf7+ Kd6 17. cxd4 Qxg3+ 18. Ke2 Nf6 19. Bd7 Bxd7 20. Rxd7+ Nxd7 21. Nf7+ Ke7! =
11.h3 dxc4 12. d3 cxd3 13. cxd3 Be6 14. Be3 and white has a slight advantage
This is the current state of analysis.
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Ng5 Bc5 5.Nxf7 Bxf2+ 6.Kf1 Qe7 7.Nxh8 d5 8.exd5 Nd4 9.d6 cxd6 10.Kxf2! Bg4 11.Qf1 0-0-0 12.Nf7 d5 13.Kg1! Rf8 14.c3 Nc2 15.Na3 Nxa1 16.Bxd5 Nxd5 17.Qc4+