Move 28: the conditional move thread

Good point Estragon! Without Rb6, my simplistic argument fails, but white still has a simple plan of putting two major pieces and the bishop attacking b7, tying down our three major pieces to defense.

[edit]

Actually on reflection, I think the problem is that if white gets Bd4 and Rb4 as well as Qb3, defending b7 three times blocks the d8-a5 diagonal. As a result, white can play Rb6, and later Ra4 and R4b4. We would then probably lose if we allow the capture of b7 while capturing a5, but otherwise we simply lose b7.

So best will be to anticipate this problem and play b5 at the right time, the least bad option. But perhaps some concrete line proves me wrong?

ivan, we are not in the position to do anything until Pogonina moves. But after she moves, it may be a different matter.

Ivan, please try to keep your comments specific. We are still waiting for Pogonina's move, and that may influence our choice of reply. You may be totally against playing b5 next move (or perhaps ever), but I don't believe that is justified.

Here's an example. After 28. Rb4 Bd8 Ra1!? we are in a bit of a bind. White's move may look passive, but it has subtle attacking ideas. After this, 29. ... Rc5 seems to be plain bad, but we are still tied down to the defense of both a6 and b7, almost leaving us without play. White can calmly play Bc4, Bd5, Ra4, Rb6 and Rb4 and win if we refuse to feel b5. So as far as I can see, we must play b5 against this (possibly best) white plan.

Good, Ivan! Just a misunderstanding.

I am not averse to b5 as a response to Bc4, but it could also be delayed a little. I feel it will be necessary before long.

We also need to check if there is a plan to survive the opposite coloured bishop ending. I am not sure it is lost, just don't fancy our chances. If b5 lines turned out to be bad somehow, we might have nothing better. I reckon we probably do have a draw some way, though.

We are getting jumpy. When somebody says something, violent reaction comes first, then logic.

If we want to draw this game, we should push aside our emotions, calmly look at other's suggestions, give a refutal or supporting move, or keep silent.

She won't play Qd5 because of Rxc3! drawish line:

28. Qd5?! Rxc3! 29. bxc3 Qxa4 30. Qxd6 Rf8 31. Qxe5 Bf6 32. Qd5 Bxc3 33. Qxb7 Bxa5

Bc4 I don't have anything at the moment - I will have a look

In reply to 28.Bc4 I have looked at Bd8 and relooked at b5 using my "notepad" tree-analysis (better use Analysis Board to view) - here are the findings:

28.Bc4 Bd8 (see diagram below)

  29.Bd5 Rc5 30.Rda1 Rb5! (better than BalticKnight's Qc7) (31.Rb4 Rxa5!)
      looks capable of holding
  29.Rda1 b5 (no other move, but hang on)
    30.axb6 Rcxb6 31.Rb4 Rxb4 32.cxb4 a5!! 33.b5 Bb6 we may have managed it!
    30.Bd5 Rc7 we again look safe

Now b5 line:

28.Bc4 b5?!

  29.axb6 (popular line) Rcxb6 30.Rb4 Rxb4 31.cxb4 Qb7 (Estragon's line)
      32.Rxd6 (CRITICAL LINE) Qxe4 33.Bxf7+ Kh8 34.g3 (to prevent Qe1#) Rc8! (again threatening mate) 36.Rd1 : looks like we are holding, but just barely
      32.Bd5?! Qxb4 33.Bxf7+ Kh8 (33...Kf8 34.Qf3) 34.Qxb4 Rxb4 35.Rxd6 Rxe4 36.g3 (to avoid Re1#) Ra4 is OK for us I think

  29.Bd5 (BalticKnight's line) Rc7 - as Elroch has said, we have less to worry

  29.Rb4?! (unexplored line) Bd8 30.Bd5 Rcc8 31.Ra1 looks OK for us

Qd5 just looked wrong to me. I haven't looked at it at all. Glad someone has justified my laziness.

The Rb4 line:

ivan_the_truble, PLEASE USE ANALYSIS BOARD - I always do that

31...a5?? is replied by 32.Bb5

after 34...Kh8 white has

35.Qe6 (threatening Qe8# & Qxd6) Qb8 (preventing both)

36.h4!! black bishop has no place to go:

  36...Bd8?? 37.Qe8#

  36...Be7?? 37.Qxe7

  36...Bf6? 37.Rac1!! and black cannot prevent Rc8+!

  36...Bh6? 37.g4!! threatening 38.g5

  36...Bf4 37.g3 etc.

  36...Bd7 37.Qd5! Rb7 38.Be6! (again threatening QxB) Bb4?! (where else?) 39.Rc1! (threatening Rc8+) Bc5 (only way to save queen) 13.b4! and the bishop is gone!

Ivan, are you sure we can play b5 there, can you post a diagram?

Maybe I'm not getting it because it says 30) Bb4, but white has a light-squared bishop.  I agree if we could play b5, it would be good for black, and it might be a necessity eventually.  Rb4 might be coming, but it's good to see the situations in where we can push b5, we have to be careful now.

To sum up what's been posted so far,

if Rb4, Bd8

if Bc4 then what, b5?

if Rd5, then?? (maybe I"m wrong about this, but it seems you wouldn't want to play Be7 to guard the d pawn because you don't need to. We could improve the kingside, prepare for b5, do whatever is good for black :p)

themothman, read last two pages to get your answers

ok, I misunderstood your a5? comment, which you edited to clarify

please read the 2nd part of my post regarding your continuation from move 35.

Ivan, what about 33) f3, now white is targeting the a pawn with three attackers.

ivan_the_truble,

35.Qe6 Ra6?? 36.Qe8#

The hazard of having it in the head is oversight

That is why I do not do serious analysis without Analysis Board and my Old Faithful Windows "notepad" (the reason it takes so long, and I am not always able to respond to all quieries)

yes, 35.Qe6 Qc6 looks good. Needs further analysis, but looks like your line is tenable. But the position is wide open, she might find some fantastic line (she is a WGM, remember?) to win. Too risky, IMO

After 33) f3 the a pawn is lost, any move and then the queen joins the attack.

Have you given 28.Rda1 a thought?