Move 28: the conditional move thread

28.Rad1 is a move I haven't considered before. It looks usefull though. It takes some heat of a5 in a better way than Rd5, since that move clutters the view of Q and B. Rad1 still guards the back rank and brings down fire on the a-file if b5 were played. 28. ... Bd8 29.Rb4 g6 There isn't any other useful moves I can see. 30.Bc4 Kg7  31.Bd5 Using the least expensive piece to effectively block d6 and putting preassure on f7 and b7. 31. ... Rc7  32.Rb6 This is a nice White setup. What if 28. ...b5?  29.c4! wrecking the black queen side.

dsarkar,

the line 28.Bc4 Bd8  29.Bd5 Rc5 30.Rad1 Rb5  31.Rb4 Rxa5 is not in Black's favour. It is a hasty conclusion. It can continue 32.Rxa5 Bxa5 33.Rxb7 Rxb7  34.Qxb7 Qxb7  35.Bxb7 and White will be a pawn up.

ok, as I strongly suspected, Pogonina has played 28. Rb4. There is pretty much unanimous support for Bd8, and I suspect such a natural move will attract the highest vote even if communication was banned. To be thorough, 28. ... Qc7 has been proposed. It seems to me that it is more difficult to play b5 successfully in this line, so I prefer 28. ... Bd8.

[following diagram corrected - had an incorrect mainline before]

In response to dsarkar's diagram in post 53 (also here: http://www.chess.com/emboard.html?id=426999) -- which is now relevant since we know Natalie played Rb4 -- as well as to Elroch's most recent post just above this one, I have a specific question:

In what ways is our position after move 33 in the mainline (following ...Bd8) better than the position after move 32 (32...Rb6) in the red-line (following ...Qc7)? 

At a glance, and even after a bit more thought, I like the second one better, as we're not a pawn down, we have no immediate threats against us, and the position is overall decent, albeit with a weak pawn on a6; that in comparison to the first situation (mainline) when white is a pawn up in the end, ready to push their c-pawn so our potential blocker on d6 will be quickly expelled, etc. -- I see that as more or less a lost cause with little we can do to save it from then in. 

So why go there (...Bd8) and not take the red line (...Qc7)?  What have we found out since dsarkar posted in message #53?  I have not seen anything new in that line, so I am not sure I support ...Bd8 yet -- for this very reason.

28...Bd8 is a natural reply and I wasn't able to figure any better. I expect then 29.Ra1 and wonder whether ...b5 (or b6) would be fit. If not we may as well ask ourselves how far 28...Bd8 made a sense, if yes before recommanding it however we have to indicate how we'd continue after 30.axb

To summarize the question in my previous message, what is our proposed improvement to black's play in the mainline of http://www.chess.com/emboard.html?id=426999 (post #53 by dsarkar)?

I definitely do not like the final position after move 33 in the mainline, so I assume the supporters of ...Bd8 must have since (or before) come up with an improvement for us.  What is it?

Here's the line I am talking about, if you'd rather look at it in notation, and not in the diagram elsewhere:

28.Rb4 Bd8 29.Ra1 Be7 30.Bc4 d5 31.exd5 Rh6 32.Rb6 Rxb6 33.Qxb6 Rc8 +=/+-

White seems to be to be at a severe advantage after that line. Instead of Rb6, she also has d6 threatening Bxf7+ (if needed) or just retaining a pawn advantage.

Yes, precisely.

Compare that to the variation:

28.Rb4 Qc7 29.Bc4 Bd8 30.Bd5 Rc5 31.Bxb7 Rxa5 32.Bc6 Rb6 33.Bd5 Rxb4 34.Qxb4 Kf8, where black is okay.

I don't understand the motivation for dsarkar's idea by comparison with my sideline in #45 (copied here and updated):

Elroch... 30. c4 looks pretty strong.

Elroch:  Let's clarify what we're discussing. 

Are you claiming that what you're showing in your diagram is stronger for black (in the ...Bd8 line) than what dsarkar had shown in his diagram?  That's how I interpret your post, but I'd like to be sure that this is your intent.

I agree with casmith_789 that 30.c4 is a strong improvement for white over 30.a:b6 (as your diagram shows).  Though that makes me wonder why he voted for ...Bd8 -- see his note related to the vote he cast (or perhaps he is about to change his mind and vote for another move instead).

Further, what about your thoughts on the ...Qc7 line -- do you agree or disagree with his line?  If you disagree, where specifically can white play stronger than what he showed?

The reason I ask this second question is that in the end we're comparing both lines, so it's important to actually look at both, rather than debate only the strengths of one or the other.

I was claiming that in the 28. ... Bd8 29. Ra1 line, 29. ... b5 led to an ok line (better than dsarkar's line with a later d5 pawn sac). I can't see what you mean about 30. c4 bxc4 (line added to diagram) which looks completely equal. At present I think both 28. Bd8 and 28. Qc7 seem ok. I chose 28. Bd8 firstly because it is more natural (first instinctive choice), and also because it has received a lot more attention, hence less chance of an oversight.

You did not show that Bd8 was a wasted tempo in all lines, Ivan. In my post #80 and similar lines, Bd8 proves very useful to protect our a-pawn. If the final position were reached with queen on c7 and bishop on g5, we would lose a pawn. The bishop has a much more powerful influence on a5 than the queen would.

In dsarkar's line quoted by _valentin_ above, I consider Be7 clearly not best. It is not the difference between Bd8 and Qc7 that is key. The end diagram for Qc7 in dsarkars "red line" (the playably non-gambit line) is an endgame structural similar to my endgame after Bd8, but black still has work to do get the a-pawn to a5 and secure it (actually not yet demonstrated). So I still prefer 28. ... Bd8.

You might consider this!?

In dsarkar's line I can follow to 32 Bc6, but then the next move is 33 Bd5?  Why, if the bishop was going there you would just make one move.  The point of Bc6 seems to be to prevent black from playing Rb5 and doing OK so why would the bishop then move off the a4-e8 diagonal?  It doesn't make sense.  So it seems white can improve that line which is riskier than Bd8.  Qc7 can certainly be played next move in some transpositions and it seems much more solid

_valentin_, would you agree now that 29. ... Be7 is not correct in the 28. ... Bd8 lines, and that this changes the assessment considerably? My view is that both Bd8 and Qc7 probably suffice, but I can see a clearer path with the simpler Bd8.

dsarkar,

In your last diagram you posted we lose the a pawn (and you still believe the position is okay for black), why not attack the b pawn with "32)... Qb7".

Now the a pawn is an imaginary threat on the 7th rank and black is up a bishop, now white is playing for a draw!

Has anyone actually looked at the position after 28. Rb4 Bd8 29. Ra1 b5 30. axb6 R(either)xb6 31. Rxb6 Rxb6 Qa3 a5 to see if it's actually drawn?  I am concerned that it might not be.

Well, Kalirren, the move is 32. ... a5. Then either white exchanges a for b, or our a-pawn gains ideal protection. Either look fine to me. White's pawns are no less vulnerable than ours in this line.

But white does not have to exchange rooks before Qa3, so we need to deal with that.