Why does it seem like the Americans always outperform their elo ratings in these team events?
World Team Championships
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If my memory serves me correctly we have a hard time closing out these events.Hopefully this year will be different. I can't think of the last time the USA took Gold in one of these events. Imagine if Kamsky had been on the roster. USA has two tough customers in Armenia and Azerbaijan squad(I'm not even going to try to spell it). Levon Aronian will be a tough test for Nakamura representing Armenia. Azerbaijan seems to be an evenly,highly rated team from top to bottom.USA certainly is out performing the ELO ratings especially Nakamura who has a performance rating over 3000. Onischuk on Board 2 is having a solid performance himself.
Ernie
Onischuk's TRP is over 2800, and Nakamura's is over 3000. Things are looking good so far for Team USA, but Armenia and Azerbaijan are coming, as soulpower74 has said.
I would think that Nakamura will have a tough time against Aronian, but he just played another top-level GM (Gelfand, winner of the World Cup 2009), and crushed him in exciting style with the black pieces, so I think that on a good day he stands at least a drawing chance against anyone alive (come to think of it, he had the better end of a repetition draw against 2800+ Carlsen recently).
Usa went into Round 6 tied for 1st with Russia. By virtue of defeating the American Team Russia technically was in 1st. Us Defeats Greece today 2.5-1.5 with Nakamura winning on Board 1 again. He is now 5.5/6 with a performance rating over 3000 before today's game. USA drew the other games on Boards 2,3,3. In the Russian Match still in progress as of this writing. Grischul drew on Board 1...Morozevich lost on Board 2. Russia appears to be winning on Board 3 and I think the Armenian player is up a pawn on Board 4 but I don't think he has enough to win. So I am picking a 2-2 tie in Russia's Match vs Armenia which would give the US team sole possession on 1st Place...
Ernie J