There is a chart somewhere online which says over time you can lose 25% of your games against players rated 200 points below you.
That chart sounds interesting and accurate, I want to see it!
Here's an example:
https://www.318chess.com/elo.html
Thanks for the chart, but I'm a little surprised that there's no weird ones where their better but somehow its more likely for you to win, maybe because of your adrenaline.
My game seek is set to -400 and ∞ I was thinking maybe -25 and +200 would be better.
Has it gotten suddenly easier to qualify for "brilliant" moves? I have played less, my rating has fallen since September and more or less stagnated on blitz for three years, but I am finding more "brilliant" moves in the game analytics. I never used to see these show up, but I come up with one in most games I've clicked analyze on the past few days.
Brilliants are sacrifices that are good or best and can be influenced by rating.