Candidates 2020, Round 2: Ding Done?

One of the co-favorites to win the Candidates and challenge Magnus for the title is Ding Liren.  The  other favorite being Fabio Caruana.   But Ding lost his first game as White against Hao Wang, and his 2nd game against MVL with Black.   He's sitting in last place all by himself.

I think he's practically done.  Virtually Kaput.  Finito.  I give his chances of winning the Candidates at less than 1%, but higher than 0%.  I think if he gets to +3 he has a chance of getting into a play-off.  But that means that he has to go +5 with 12 games remaining!  

If that's the case, and I think it is, here are my thoughts if I was on his advisory team:  2nd place in the Candidates is just about the same as 8th place in the tournament except for the prize money distribution.  You're in it to win it.  Therefore, play every game to win.  Forget the "Win with White, Draw with Black strategy."  Go for it every game.  We will feed you, get you rest, but you are going to expend more energy than you ever have in your life to come back and win this tournament.  

You lost your first 2 games.  Forget about righting the ship by stabilizing with a quick draw in round 3.    Go for broke.  You are Usain Bolt and you spotted every one a 10 yard head start.   You gotta run like crazy to catch up and win.  

Forget about losing the last 2 games, and just focus on winning each game as they come.  That is your long term and short term tournament strategy.  Win every game!!  No conserving of strength!  Banzai!!

This whole coronavirus thing must have been stressful for ding Liren and his family. Let us not forget he is, after all, a human being, subject to the stresses of everyday life, like anyone else. I wish him a good tournament, win, lose or draw.

I know that, in our era, the sporting result is supreme. But now, maybe other things are occupying his mind!

It is not unusual, not only in chess, but in any sport, to have poor performances in times of personal tragedies or great stress. His whole country is undergoing a huge, stressful period, to say the least.

Again, my best wishes for him.

I somehow feel Kramnik is right, that the Candidates Tournament should not be held now.

The problem with tournaments like this, rather than matches, is that it is harder to chase down 7 opponents than 1. A bad start is very difficult to overcome.

Ding had the very worst start possible after 2 rounds.  He should play round 3 with the intent to go 1-2 after 3 rounds, and not caring whether he starts 0-3.  

Well said mate.👍

It's a double round robin, so a lot can stiil happen!

The rest of the players see a wounded Ding, circling like sharks going in for the kill as everybody needs to feed on the bleeding fish and get valuable points.  If there is such a thing as a GOOD tilt versus a regular tilt, then now is the time for Ding to have a GOOD tilt and fight back to get back in the tournament.  His chances are less than 1% currently, and he might as well go down swinging and kicking.

Ding's nearly out of it. Not because he lost twice but because he lost badly twice. Especially the MVL game he inflicted most of the damage to himself. If he gets 1/4 it'll be a good result. I could honestly see him getting less.

...this

As much as I enjoy following the candidates (even more now everything else has closed down), it would probably have been the right decision to postpone it.

Agreed with postponing it but I would have polled the players first to see what they wanted to do. Chess can be wonderful for taking our minds off the problems of life. Ask me how I know. But if you have someone in your family or someone who is close to you suffering and possibly on the verge of death, your heart will not be in the game and your mind won't be enough. If the candidates unanimously wanted to go on with the tournament, I would have let them decide. If more than two did not want to go on and the rest were OK with postponing it, I would have tried to do that. The problem  postponement of an event of this magnitude would likely have a domino effect on other planned events in the world of chess. Also the amount of personal preparation for the event and then having it postponed could play havoc with a person's psyche.

If Ding is able to concentrate, I agree that he should go down swinging! What is there to lose but a few bucks? Besides, most folks love an underdog because of most of us are underdogs!

Could have, would have, should have.   The die is cast.  

The OP is about Ding.  Ding done 100% if play solid and goes to +1 or +2 for the entire tournament.  

Therefore, go for broke even if it ultimately ends up crashing and burning.   Go dangerous berserk and shock the chess world after starting 0-2.  

Or revert to solid and draw, and gain your bearings while kissing this cycle away.

Except the other 7 players didn't join Radjabov in asking for the event to be rescheduled.

What's funny is that Wang Hao thought it should be postponed and MVL got in because Rad bowed out, and these two are tied for the lead at the end of two rounds!  And both took turns in beating on Ding.

Very true that it now decided and the train is rolling, and whatever reflections we have here are just that – reflections... Both Radjabov (that withdrew his participation due to the virus) and Ding were strong contesters and would have been interesting to see in a match against MC. 

Ding could make a comeback, but only if he find a way to return to his normal strength, I don't know anything about his family situation (if there are stressful things going on due to the crisis that still effects him) – I guess we will have to see. 

A good point made on another site I'll quote:

"

People who down-talk Kiril , Wang Hao etc because they are not pets of Rex Sinqufield got a good reality check today. These are 2700+ Super GMs and all it takes is a couple of players being a bit off colour by 5 per cent (Ding, Giri) for the others to come into contention.

Hao has proved his pedigree while winning the Grand Swiss. MVL has proven pedigree as well. Ian Nepo can explode. Truly anyone's tournament. And Alex Grischuk played a really amazing Berlin today. What a great tournament!"

Kiril is not a 2700 player at the moment, he's not a super GM. It's a joke he was allowed in to begin with.

And WTH does R. Sinquefiled have to do with any of it? The French player MVL should have been chosen. He missed last cycle in spite of not losing a single game in the Grand Prix. The Russian federation circle jerks over players like Kramnik who preformed miserably then retired. Look, Kramnik is lengendary, but his time had passed. Stop giving the wild card to trash.

I know most players and fans are idiots who don't understand anything, but commentary like this is always annoying to read.

Ding was definitely a favorite, but just a reminder that he drew all by one game last cycle. Returning to "normal" strength wont be nearly enough to make a comeback.

Calm down - it's just someone's opinion on the internet. The pertinent part was in bold, I thought people would actually focus on that.

I'm not upset, just outspoken.

Yes!  Oh my goodness, yes!!  Ding fights back and defeats Fabio in an utterly critical game for Ding in Round 3!!

I saw part of the post-game conference with Ding, and he said he was thinking of playing cxd against Fabio's Slav and going for the quick draw, but then he decided against it.  That's exactly the spirit you gotta have, Ding!!!

Fabio really had Ding worried with his Opening Prep, but Ding calmly solved the problems over the board, and destroyed Fabio.

Now the players are bunched up, and Ding is right back in it being only 1 point behind.  He actually doesn't have to go berserk anymore, lol.   His win today over Fabio was exactly what he needed to right his ship.  This tournament is anybody's ballgame now.

Ding Not Done!