d4 scores better than e4, so that is a good argument that it is better.
However, Matthew Wilson claims that if you control for:
- The difference in the player's ratings
- The players' average rating
- The rating gap multiplied by the average rating
Then e4 is allegedly slightly stronger statistically. But I am not a statistician, so I do not know whether Mr. Wilson is right or wrong here. What do you guys think? If you guys have a background in statistics, is Mr. Wilson's analysis sound or unsound?
Does someone want to discuss Professor Wilson's analysis here?
I read the articles when they were published and glanced again after your link. His conclusion that the differences are so slight that it's not worth changing your repertoire seem on the mark. The statistical gymnastics he performs to make e4 come out slightly ahead, OTOH, should be taken apart by another statistician. I have a vague sense that he missed the forest for the trees.
Everyone in this forum has lost to both opening moves.