why d4 is better than e4

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WilliamShookspear

Everyone in this forum has lost to both opening moves.

Ziryab
Glaucon333 wrote:
Glaucon333 wrote:

d4 scores better than e4, so that is a good argument that it is better.

 

However, Matthew Wilson claims that if you control for:

  • The difference in the player's ratings
  • The players' average rating
  • The rating gap multiplied by the average rating

 

Then e4 is allegedly slightly stronger statistically. But I am not a statistician, so I do not know whether Mr. Wilson is right or wrong here. What do you guys think? If you guys have a background in statistics, is Mr. Wilson's analysis sound or unsound?

 

https://en.chessbase.com/post/1-e4-best-by-test-part-2

 

Does someone want to discuss Professor Wilson's analysis here?

 

I read the articles when they were published and glanced again after your link. His conclusion that the differences are so slight that it's not worth changing your repertoire seem on the mark. The statistical gymnastics he performs to make e4 come out slightly ahead, OTOH, should be taken apart by another statistician. I have a vague sense that he missed the forest for the trees.

AlisonHart
Colin20G wrote:

1.d4 is the best anti-sicilian but it leads to repetitive and boring "closed" games...

 

Super repetitive, super closed, super boring.

bong711

Most Super GMs play d4. They know best. For FIDE rated games, I play d4. chess com games mostly e5. d4 gives black limited counter play.

bong711

bong711 wrote:

Most Super GMs play d4. They know best. For FIDE rated games, I play d4. chess com games mostly e5. d4 gives black limited counter play.

chess.com games mostly e4

AlisonHart
AashmanG wrote:

E4 is more Aggresive and tactical line

 

 

They're both tactical and they're both strategic. Games are made open or closed, sharp or quiet by all the moves that come after the first...not by the first move itself. 

1d41-0

What makes this even funnier is that the OP deleted his original post.

SlowCareer

https://teespring.com/chesslovers

Tee for chess lovers

 

SlowCareer

Chess is over all

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Crusher789
But then it leads to huge messes. In d4 u can choke the opponent to death and your opponent can only struggle against your plan. His plan is to fight your plan and draw!
SeverusSnape99
Bleh
pdve

Kasparov used to favor d4 whereas Fischer e4

blueemu
bong711 wrote:

Most Super GMs play d4. They know best. 

They know best what a super-GM should play against another super-GM. But what does that have to do with the question of what one patzer should play against another patzer? 

Apples and oranges.

Glaucon333

Most Super GMs also play e4. Such as Carlsen, Anand, Caruana, MVL, Navara, etc.

AlisonHart

Reading Masters of the Chessboard recently, I came across what I think to be patient zero for the whole "e4 = tactical, d4 = positional" thing

 

"The openings beginning with 1.e4 e5 are more apt than others to lead to open positions, since as a rule d4 and exchange of centre pawns will follow. On the other hand it is obviously more difficult to carry out the move 2.e4 after 1.d4 inasmuch as the square e4 is originally unprotected. This is the reason why d4 openings as a rule lead to closed positions"

 

So, first thing, he says that e4 e5 SPECIFICALLY has a higher probability of open positions - not 1.e4 in its entirety. Second thing is that 2.c4 is played precisely because it gets around the need to play e4 in order to break the center. The exchange variation in the QGD is a structural cousin to the open Sicilian (with colors reversed) where c pawn is traded for d in order to resolve the structure and create a more open game.

 

I just want the chess playing community to think a little more holistically about these two moves. They're different - no question - but the commentary in your head shouldn't read "1.e4! Seizing the initiative, white is better" "1.d4? Seizing the defensive. White plays for long term advantage."

blueemu
AlisonHart wrote:

The exchange variation in the QGD is a structural cousin to the open Sicilian (with colors reversed) where c pawn is traded for d in order to resolve the structure and create a more open game.

In the Exchange Variation of the QGD, the c-Pawn is traded for the e-Pawn, not for the d-Pawn.

Who answers cxd5 with anything but exd5 in the QGD Exchange?

It's the colors-reversed analogue of the Caro-Kann Panov Variation (1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5 3. exd5 cxd5), not of the Sicilian.

ajian
blueemu wrote:
AlisonHart wrote:

The exchange variation in the QGD is a structural cousin to the open Sicilian (with colors reversed) where c pawn is traded for d in order to resolve the structure and create a more open game.

In the Exchange Variation of the QGD, the c-Pawn is traded for the e-Pawn, not for the d-Pawn.

Who answers cxd5 with anything but exd5 in the QGD Exchange?

It's the colors-reversed analogue of the Caro-Kann Panov Variation (1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5 3. exd5 cxd5), not of the Sicilian.

actually cxd5 Nxd5 in the QGD exchange is really annoying to play against, especially for a win

blueemu
ajian wrote:

actually cxd5 Nxd5 in the QGD exchange is really annoying to play against, especially for a win

That line plays like a Gruenfeld, not like a Sicilian.

AlisonHart
blueemu wrote:

Who answers cxd5 with anything but exd5 in the QGD Exchange?

 

Kramnik does! My database has 15k games from 4.cxd5, and 14k play exd5, but Nx has been played over 900 times, mostly by Kramnik and Dominguez-Perez (at top level). But you are right.

TheEinari

Because it's not