Who Will Dethrone Magnus When the Time Comes?

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MrDamonSmith

Oh yeah, Rapport. He's got real potential as a top teir player. I think he's gotten stagnant over the last year or so. Kind of like Wesley So & Sam Sevian. The chinese kid Wei might be the next superstar though. He turned 14  6 months ago & he's over 2600 right now. 

JustinJ_FairfieldU
Estragon wrote:

It probably won't be anyone who is already over 2700.  Giri is currently the youngest over 2700 at 19, four years younger than Carlsen but there is a striking difference in results.

 

Remember Carlsen was already playing in Super-GM events at 16 and cracked 2700 before age 17.  At 17 he even was #1 in the world for a short time, but it was between official lists and doesn't count for the records, but still . . .

Nakamura hasn't peaked yet, but he can't be too far off at his age.  Caruana, Karjakin, Giri, and other young players will also get better, but all the while Carlsen can improve too, and he is roughly 100 points ahead of the field of contenders already.  Very unlikely any of them could dethrone him absent some freak circumstances.

 

When Carlsen loses the title, the odds are it will be to someone who is probably not yet 15 today, but will rocket up into Super-GM status just like he did. 

I agree.  Its way too soon to start looking for the person who will dethrone Carlsen. I doubt many in 1985 would have  picked Kramnik as the one to dethrone Kasparov.

macer75
ConnorMacleod_151 wrote:

Sebleb

+1 He's only 12 years old right now, and he's already giving lessons to the entire chess.com community!!

AKJett
MrDamonSmith wrote:

Oh yeah, Rapport. He's got real potential as a top teir player. I think he's gotten stagnant over the last year or so. Kind of like Wesley So & Sam Sevian. The chinese kid Yei might be the next superstar though. He turned 14  6 months ago & he's over 2600 right now. 

Isn't Rich over 2700?

AKJett

Name                        B-Year                     Rating(FIDE)

GM Wesley So             1993                         2719

GM Rich Rapport         1996                         2687

GM Wei Yi                   1999                         2604

IM Sam Sevian             2000                          2401

 

As you can see Rapport is clearly the more accomplished player, and who is Sevian? (Let me guess, some guy my age who will beat me in 20 moves.)

MrDamonSmith

Sevian won the world under 12 title. I think he turns 13 today.

MrDamonSmith

Anton Smirnov in Australia is 12 & he's 2318.

cym143

I think Carlsen will have a reign similar to Botvinnik's. He'll win most of his matches, and when he loses he'll regain the title in two or three years. Then, when he's past his prime, someone will beat him for good.

noah2358

I'll vote Wei Yi.

Jion_Wansu

Borislav Ivanov?

jargonaught

I feel like Carlsen will have an era of dominance such as Kasparov did. At least in championship matches.

NewArdweaden

We don't know about the challernger yet, since he is just another chess prodigy at the moment.

JohnnyKGB

radjabov.

alec98
smaug_check wrote:

Magnus Carlsen is now the face of chess abroad. Highest rating , world championship, very young. But no one is invcincible. Who will rise up?

He`s going to be champion for a  long, long, long time like Lasker and Steinitz until he gets tired of the game or walks away for some other reason.

He can get better and will probably cross 3000 and raise his game to an even higher level than it is now if he does that it`s going to be very tough for his compeition to beat him.

Once Carlsen crosses 3000 it`s computer la la land uncharted waters.

paulafsil
Estragon wrote:

It probably won't be anyone who is already over 2700.  Giri is currently the youngest over 2700 at 19, four years younger than Carlsen but there is a striking difference in results.

 

Remember Carlsen was already playing in Super-GM events at 16 and cracked 2700 before age 17.  At 17 he even was #1 in the world for a short time, but it was between official lists and doesn't count for the records, but still . . .

Nakamura hasn't peaked yet, but he can't be too far off at his age.  Caruana, Karjakin, Giri, and other young players will also get better, but all the while Carlsen can improve too, and he is roughly 100 points ahead of the field of contenders already.  Very unlikely any of them could dethrone him absent some freak circumstances.

 

When Carlsen loses the title, the odds are it will be to someone who is probably not yet 15 today, but will rocket up into Super-GM status just like he did. 

True!

Carlsen himself told that China and India are both creating very strong chess players. The next generation could easily come from any of those places. (Actually he got beaten in a simul in india when he was there challenging Anand).

But let's not forget that he is a genius from Norway, and chess is no way as big as it is in Russia for example... So there is always that.

Its hard to know for sure where the new king of chess will come and almost impossible to know who is gonna be.

fabelhaft

"He`s going to be champion for a long, long, long time like Lasker and Steinitz until he gets tired of the game or walks away for some other reason. He can get better and will probably cross 3000"

Why not say he will be the best player in the world for at least 50 years like Philidor and cross 4000 instead, that is almost as believable :-)

fabelhaft

But no, no one is World Champion for close to 30 years today. A bit easier in Lasker's days when you could go more than ten years in a row without defending (Lasker had two such periods), and then choose to defend against opponents like Janowski. Carlsen has to defend less than a year after winning the title, and there will be many more problems with FIDE and stuff like that.

paulafsil

@fabelhaft Kasparov held for a long time, but I think its too much to hold for 30 years too. There is a "Kasparov for President" Fide campaing. Maybe things will change...

fabelhaft

"@fabelhaft Kasparov held for a long time, but I think its too much to hold for 30 years too"

Yes, Kasparov reached 15 years (8 of them as FIDE World Champion), but he was a bit more obsessed than Carlsen, and had both draw odds and longer matches, which make upsets less common. And then he didn't defend the last five years of his reign either. Anyway I don't think Carlsen will come anywhere close to Kasparov's 15 years. He might well grow tired of Kirsan and FIDE or the World Championship or chess long before that.

trotters64
fabelhaft wrote:

"@fabelhaft Kasparov held for a long time, but I think its too much to hold for 30 years too"

 

Yes, Kasparov reached 15 years (8 of them as FIDE World Champion), but he was a bit more obsessed than Carlsen, and had both draw odds and longer matches, which make upsets less common. And then he didn't defend the last five years of his reign either. Anyway I don't think Carlsen will come anywhere close to Kasparov's 15 years. He might well grow tired of Kirsan and FIDE or the World Championship or chess long before that.

It could all be over for Magnus in November this year and who can say whether or not he will ever be able to win another candidates tournament..after all he was very fortunate to win the candidates that he did scrape through in .