Martin vs the world analysis thread #3

I mean c5 Bh6 Bxh6 Bxh6... this doesn't seem terrible. Ok we're not castling any time soon, but his only bishop is out of position. There's much less pressure on our king.

c5 dxc5 is fine for us, we're definitely getting compensation for the pawn, he won't capture.

c5 Nc3 Nf6 and this doesn't look awful.

c5 f4 I don't like, he locks the e5 square, maybe c5 f4 Nc6 Nf3 and now d5 dislodges our knight, so maybe we should instead be playing Nd7

I think b6 is a concession we need to make a some point because that pawn is already weak on b7, so perhaps this is how we develop the bishop. Yes he can push a4 but we can always hit with a5 before he can play a5.

so c5 f4 Nd7 Nf3 b6... this looks ok to me, we're keeping our options open with castling and asking Martin if he wants to play h4 before we castle that side. 

 I really don't like 0-0, as much as I can't find any definitely winning attacks for Martin, he has so much material well positioned and ours is undeveloped on the queenside, it just must be bad.

Wait for chess_pro to read that post before playing c5 please. I definitely could be missing something.

If Martin castles kingside then it's much safer for us to do so because h4 doesn't have a rook behind it. 

The question is, if we castle kingside, is he safe in the centre or queenside? Can he launch the pawns at us? If he doesn't have a winning attack, it's too risky for him.

I just feel with that much material, he must have something. Maybe I'm just seeing ghosts. 

Ok so let's say 7... 0-0 8. h4 c5 9. h5 Nc6 10. hxg6 fxg6 11. Bh6... he's following up with Qd2, we're pretty screwed here, Bxg7 Qh6+ Qh7# is a threat. So 11... Bxh6 Qxh6 and we're getting checkmated. 

He definitely has threats, how can we prepare for them?

7... 0-0 8. h4, now what? 

Tug is putting in a lot of work, which I appreciate extremely.

Is c5 a "deep thought" move for us, where Martin, as a result, may not "boldly go where no man has gone before?"  In other words, might he go for consolidation, secure his own position, and not push hard instead, because everything is so obscure from the way he may possibly see things?

Also, is the next Event forced by the way things may proceed, from the perspective of our worst fears, that we would be hoping for an Event because things seem so dire.  There is some sort of rule where if 2 pieces are taken, then an Event must occur before another piece is captured.  But one Event has already taken place and that rule may no longer be enforceable.

Technically, does Martin have to invoke his Event for the rest of the game?

I agree that 7...0-0 8. h4 probably looks dangerous for black. I'm not 100% sure that it is dangerous but it probably is. 7...0-0 might not be such a good move after all.

But after 7...0-0 8. h4 h5 I'm not sure what white will play. Should he play 9. g4 immediately or prepare it with 9. f3 first (or play something else)? If he plays 9. g4 then we can play 9...Bxg4 and at least exchange a pair of bishops.

After 7...0-0 8. h4 h5 9. f3 I'm almost considering something crazy like 9...f5 to prevent g4 and if 10. dxf5 Bxf5 then we are threatening to exchange a pair of bishops (on d3). But I'd be surprised if 9...f5 actually worked.

If 7...0-0 8. h4 is really strong for white then I think we should consider 7...c5 or 7...e5 instead and wait for Martin to castle. I think it's safe for us to castle kingside once Martin castles kingside.

I can't really see anything wrong with 7...c5, besides that it leaves our king in the centre (but so does 7...e5 and we're probably in a pretty terrible position right now anyway).

I can't tell if 7...c5 or 7...e5 is better. I'd be a bit worried about pushing the c-pawn if we're going to castle queenside. If we play 7...c5 and also ...b6 later to develop our bishop to b7, then we wont really be able to play ...a5 to stop a2-a4-a5 (since then the b6-pawn would become too weak).

I have no idea what the best move is here. I take back my vote for 7...0-0 and I don't vote for anything right now.

I'm sticking to my guns here and voting for ...e5.

As Tug has said, 0-0 is practically lost to h4. If we play h5, then he can play g4 (because of the bishop on e2) or take on h5. He also has the option of Nh3-f4xh5. 

...c5 isn't a terrible move, but I feel like it's too slow.

...e5 is in my opinion the strongest option. We prepare ...Bde6.5 (which gives us the option of playing ...Bf6 later) and attack the centre. If he plays Bh6, we can trade and play ...g5 and ...Rhg8.

I must admit that I'm somewhat concerned about Na3 and Bbc1.5, though I don't think it's immediately bad for us. 

I really don't think Martin will play Bh6 unless it wins material or if we castle kingside. There's no other reason for him to do so.

The problem with e5 is it opens up the centre, and if we're leaving our king there then that can't be good. The d-file is already semi-open. 

0-0 might not be definitely losing to h4. Martin would have to be pretty confident it's winning for him to proceed. 

chess_pro is right that b6 will eventually become weak if we play c5. I'm not sure I like e5 though because it opens up the centre when we haven't decided what to do with the king. 

I'm very happy to castle when Martin has done so., and then e5 isn't a problem. 

Perhaps we can play b6 now? 

I think I made an error in my calculations above.(post #149).

7... 0-0 8. h4 c5 9. h5 Nc6 10. hxg6 hxg6 11. Bh6 Bxh6... he doesn't have Qxh6 now because he hasn't yet played Qd2, so 12. Bxh6... we do still need to stop his queen getting to h6, which takes him three moves. How can we prepare in this time? Only option I can see is to make space for the king and run, which would mean castling was not a good idea.

8... c5 and 9... Nc6 are not forced moves for us by any means, do we have anything better?

I think 7... 0-0 8. h4 h5 is the way forwards, if we decide to castle and he launches the pawns. We force him to open up the entire kingside if he wishes to proceed, which means his king is more vulnerable, which puts pressure on Martin to find a winning plan.

If he tries g4, yes we have Bxg4, but after Bxg4 hxg4, he can play Qab3.5+ to pick up b7 instead of grabbing g4.

If we play c5 now, he doesn't have Qab3.5+, so there's that to consider too.

7... 0-0 8. h4 h5 9. g4 hxg4 10. h5... maybe we can play f5 here and try to hold the pawn. If instead 10. Bxg4 then 10... Bxg4 11. Qxg4... this is bad as his queen now has quick access to the h-file, again our king will have to run away. 

At the very least I think he can drive us back to the centre if we castle, but it does come at the cost of destroying his own kingside. 

I really don't know. I suspect if we play 7... 0-0, he won't push h4, but if he does I'd be very worried.

It feels weird to play 7...c5 if we are planning on castling queenside (since the h2-b8 diagonal opens up). Maybe Martin could prevent us from castling queenside by playing Bf4 (maybe not right away since that would hang a pawn on d4, but maybe after 8. Nf3).

Also if we play ...c5 then we have to consider the problem of developing our c8-bishop. If we try to castle queenside then ...b6 (followed by ...Bb7) wont be very good for us, like I said earlier (a2-a4-a5 cannot easily be stopped with ...a5 since we have also played ...c5, so b6 would become too weak).

And after 7...c5 if we try to develop our c8-bishop to d7 for example then Martin can probably play Rab1 to attack b7 and we don't want to play ...b6. I wonder if it would be OK to defend b7 with ...Qc7, or if our queen would be too exposed there (because of Bf4 at some point)

I'm also wondering if we will have the chance to castle kingside after 7...c5. For example would 7...c5 8. Nf3 0-0 (9. h4 h5) be safe? And what do we do if he plays 7...c5 8. h4 ?

After 7...e5 8. Bh6 Bxh6 9. Bxh6 if we play 9...Bde6.5 then Martin could play 10 Rab1 and attack b7 and we have to defend it somehow. If we play ...b6 then we create a hole on b7, but maybe that's fine. But maybe there would be problems of white jumping in on a6 with a bishop (to prevent us from castling queenside) once the b8-knight moves, so maybe we would have to play ...a5 after ...b6.

After 7...e5 8. Bh6 Bxh6 9. Bxh6 R-gh8 I think Martin can play 10. Qd2.5 (to prevent ...g5 from us). And then we have the same problems of b7 being attacked once the c8-bishop moves as above.

Maybe after 7...e5 8. Bh6 Bxh6 9. Bxh6 we could play ...Nd7 followed by ...b6 and ...Bb7 ?

It feels like every move is bad for us here and it's not easy to find a good plan for us that doesn't lead to disaster.

I'm probably leaning towards playing 7...e5 right now. I will admit I haven't calculated 7...0-0 8. h4 nearly enough in order to know if it's good or not, but white gets so many active pieces in the attack, so it just feels like white must have something. I'm too scared to play 7...0-0.

There is no move that I feel super confident with because I haven't done enough analysis, but at least at first glance 7...e5 feels a bit safer than 7...c5 because 7...c5 opens up the queenside a bit (at least the h2-b8-diagonal) and we are probably going to castle queenside. Of course we want to castle kingside (under the right circumstances of course; for example after white has castled kingside), but I don't think Martin will let us castle kingside so easily. Also ...a5 is not really an option after ...c5.

Yes 7...e5 opens up the centre a bit and our king is in the centre at the moment, but it will (hopefully) not stay there for long. I don't think it will get attacked in the centre on the next few moves (before we castle).

"I'm too scared to play 7...0-0"

This is how I feel, but it might be our best move. I'm also worried about declining to play our best move because we're seeing ghosts.

I agree that playing c5 weakens our queenside. As for the b7 pawn, I feel like we have to play b6 eventually, and if our knight is going to d7, then it's necessary further to develop the bishop. If our bishop is on b7, then the b6 pawn is pinned by a rook on b1, so a5 comes with more sting. We'd definitely need to play a5 first, so yes c5 is a weakness. 

I've been ignoring e5 because if he plays Nf3 then that pretty much forces a trade in the centre. Perhaps that's a good thing because that makes it even more dangerous for him to leave his king in the centre, meaning he pretty much has to castle.

I think I'm ok with 7... e5 and 7... 0-0.

7... c5 is probably too ambitious.

I don't see anything wrong with that move. I think we will have to play that move at some point anyway. In an ideal world we would like to have our c8-bishop on de6.5, but if we put it there then we might get problems developing our queenside while also defending the b7-pawn after Rab1 (attacking b7). Playing ...b6 after Rab1 feels awkward when our bishop is on de6.5 rather than b7.

We could maybe even consider 7...Nd7. The moves 7...c5 and 7...e5 are not the only alternatives to 7...0-0.

We probably want to make some "waiting moves", like ...b6, ...Bb7, ...e5, ...Nd7 and hope white castles kingside soon so that we can do the same. But I'm worried Martin will also delay castling.

And after 7...0-0, maybe white could play 8. Bh6 immediately (with the plan of playing h4 h5 later)? This stops us from playing ...h5. I don't have a concrete line sorry but even in this line it feels like white could get a strong attack (maybe).

I'm not really coming up with many concrete lines or reasons for why some of our moves are good/bad this time. I just have some vague feelings about the moves. I'm kind of just staring at the position and not really getting anywhere. Every move looks so unclear to me. I've never been this unsure of what move to play in a vote chess (or daily) game before. I don't remember exactly when Martin made his move but I think we have to make a move soon and I still don't know what our best move is.

7...0-0 and 7...c5 (that were my candidate moves initially) both seem risky to me, but I can't say that with a lot of confidence.

I'm fine with playing either 7...b6 or 7...e5. I can't see anything wrong with 7...Nd7 either.

I did consider it waaay earlier when I first said what my thoughts on the position where (post #113). But back then I had not yet realized the dangers of 7...0-0 and so I didn't take the ideas of castling queenside or leaving our king in the centre serously. Now I think our position is so bad that we should definitely consider alternatives to castling kingside. Back then I thought 7...f5 would be crazy because it opened up our kingside (where our king wants to be). But now that we think that castling kingside is not very safe then maybe it's not so crazy after all. (I haven't really looked at 7...f5 yet).

https://www.chess.com/club/stormbreakers/join

We're into "2 days" territory but I don't know exactly how much time we have.

Bh6 before we play h5 is a problem I hadn't considered. And yeah I don't like it, he won't need to play g4 and therefore his king will be much safer. 

I'm not sure what to do. b6 or e5 both seem playable enough and we're running out of time. I don't think we should risk f5 because we still want to castle kingside, even if we have to wait. I don't like opening that diagonal without a clearly good reason.

I need to ask you guys this "stupid" question.  Martin's Bishop… by it moving to that half-move "four corners" can change its color, now, at will.  Correct?  Just asking this so that I get the clarification-understanding.  It occupies any of those four squares, and moves like a Bishop from any of those four squares — thereby being either Black or White — for now. Just yes or no… don't go into detail.