Martin vs the world analysis thread #4

I still like e5. I just think we have to give up the pawn with e6. But this seems a lot, lot better than spending the middlegame defending e4. With e6, we weaken his g6 pawn, so that gives us a way to attack him. I'm definitely happy to give up the pawn with e6 after e5 Nh7.

If he doesn't play Nh7, then we might not need to give up the pawn.

Ok I'm taking a break. I might take another look later if we haven't moved.

e5/e6 is perhaps risky, I can't say with any certainty if giving up the pawn will work out for us. But I don't see a better course of action. e4 is a problem for us, if we're going to lose the e-pawn then better to do it on our terms. I certainly don't like the idea of having to play Qc2 and Bb3 to protect the e4 pawn, that's far too passive. 

e5/e6 will cost us a pawn, we should only play e5 if we're happy with that.

If only we could play 10. f3 after 9. Qd2 Bb4 then I would have liked 9. Qd2. But sadly 10. f3 allows 10...Bh4+, giving black a free check, and I don't think that's worth it for us.

But I guess we could play 9. Qd2 Bb4 10. Bd3, passively defending e4, if we don't have any other good moves besides 9. Qd2. It's maybe not so fun to play such a move and basically play with a tempo down. But it's definitely not a disaster for us (black wont get any free checks and we don't have to give up a pawn) and we can play 0-0-0 followed f3, g4, h4 etc. afterwards. Also black's bishop might be a bit misplaced on b4 once e4 is defended (it's not defending his king once we make a pawn storm on the kingside), so he will probably just teleport it back later. We don't have to be afraid of ...Bxc3 as long as e4 is defended, since bishops are worth a lot more than knights. Also our bishop on d3 can easily teleport into the game later.

I'm not sure what we should play after 9. e5 Nfd7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Ne5 (instead of 11...Nf6). The knight on e5 covers f7, so 12. Bf7+ would probably not be good, since we'd be trading a bishop and a pawn for a knight and 2 checks.

After 9. e5 Nh7 10. e6 fxe6 (Edit: fixed typo. Should not be 11. fxe6) 11. dxe6 Bxe6 12. Nd5 I have no idea why Martin would play 12...Nf6. Both 12...Ba5+ and 12...Bxb2 look a lot better to me (12...Bxb2 13. Bb6 could be met by 13...Ba5+, trading bishops and gaining a check for black). Black is probably a lot better after both 12...Ba5+ and 12...Bxb2, but I haven't looked at these moves a lot.

I'm not convinced sacrificing a pawn on e6 after 9. e5 actually works. And if we just take on d6 then that opens up the e-file and allows ...Re8, which would allow black to make an "exchange sacrifice" (sacrificing the rook for the bishop on either e3 or e2), which would probably be good for black. So I'm not so sure 9. e5 is actually good. But it seemed promising at first.

Maybe one option for us is to play 9. Nf3 (but I have barely looked at this move at all). If 9...Bb4 then I think we can just play 10. 0-0. The move 10...Bxc3 11. bxc3 Nxe4 looks terrible for black. Giving up a bishop for a knight and a pawn is not worth it.

In my analysis earlier, I was playing Nd5 oblivious to the fact it exposes our king to potential checks, that was sloppy of me. 

The problem with 9. Nf3 is 9... b5. The obvious threat is b4, dislodging the defender of e4. So 10. cxb5 axb5 11. Bxb5... now he has 11... Nxe4 12. Nxe4 Qa5+ 13. Nc3 Bxc3+ 14. bxc3 Qxb5...

Material is even, albeit opposite bishops, and he got two checks. 

quote- "I'm not sure what we should play after 9. e5 Nfd7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Ne5"

Bd5 looks solid, if Nc6 then a3. Bishop seems fine there.

quote- "After 9. e5 Nh7 10. e6 fxe6 11. fxe6 Bxe6 12. Nd5..."

Forget 12. Nd5, that's me being bad. But again Bd5 is interesting. We threaten his bishop, and to win back the pawn with Bxb7, if he trades bishops then Qxd5 comes with check. 

Regarding this comment...

"I'm not sure what we should play after 9. e5 Nfd7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Ne5 (instead of 11...Nf6)."

I thought Nf6 because it stops us playing Bd5. That would be a good move for us. I don't think he should worry about Bf7+, I don't think a rook and check is sufficient compensation for the bishop and pawn.  

If Ne5, then Bd5 just consolidates our position, we now protect e6 and he isn't going to shift that bishop easily.  If Nf6, then I don't know what.

I think if 9. e5 Nh7, then we win back the pawn, so if we can find a move after 11... Nf6 in the line above, then e5 might be ok after all. Let me just double check 9... Nh7 to be sure we win back the pawn.

Ok yes, 9... Nh7 is fine for us.

9. e5 Nh7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Bxd6...

Now 12. Qd3 threatens g6, so let's say 12... Bf7

Now 13. Be4 threatens both b7 and g6.

If he tries 12... g5, then still 13. Be4, we now threaten the knight and b7. 

But what if 9... Ne8?

Also he could try 12... Bf5, but then 13. Qd4+ just wins the b7 pawn by brute force, picking up a check in the process. 

Can I play e5 before we get time warninged

I think 9... Ne8 is fine too.

9. e5 Ne8 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Bxe6...

12. Qd3 Bf7 (g5 gives us a freebie with Bh7+) 13. Bd5...

Now we threaten Bxb7 and Qxg6, is Bxd5 then Qxd5 wins back the pawn.

I'm pretty sure we win back the pawn if he plays either Nh7 or Ne8, and if he plays Nfd7 then we have Bd5 to consolidate.

I'm still happy with e5.

No, let him give us a time warning. 

e5 is too critical, if my analysis is missing something our position could fall apart. It's worth taking an extra day.

I think Qd3 is a recurring move in many lines that justifies the pawn sac. It hits the weakened g6, protects c4, and allows Be4 to hit g6 and b7.

I forgot about 9. Nf3 b5. Guess that rules out 9. Nf3.

After 9. e5 Nh7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Bxe6 I don't think 12. Bd5 works because black can play 12...Qd7 or 12...Qc8 to protect both the bishop on e6 and the pawn on b7.

But 9. e5 Nh7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Bxe6 12. Qd3 might just work. Tug has already mentioned most of the critical moves in that line. 12...Qa5 13. Qxg6 doesn't work for black luckily, since 13...Bxc3+ is illegal (because the g7-bishop is pinned).

e5 is one of those moves that you will end up talking yourself out of if you look at it for too long.

Agree with JARP.

What about...

9. Nf3  b5  10. e5  Nh7  11. 0-0  b4  12. Ne4 and it looks like we have stabilized our situation and protected our King from stray attacks.  Also, with our two Knights now bearing down on territory closer to Martin's King, our position is prepping for the big sac salvo… whatever that may be.

Changing my vote to 9. Nf3.

We need to show caution… prepping to castle shows caution…  and I'll sleep fine knowing we can get our King to safety in a timely fashion.

Remember, 9. …  Ng4 can be countered by 10. Bg3.

There is a best move here and imho it is a developing move… playing a piece to a strong square, attacking the center, preparing to castle…

No way is Martin going to try anything rash this early in the game… he's gong to play a developing move too… like 9. …  Nd7.

Nf3 is met with b5, which indirectly attacks e4. Why would he play Nbd7 if he has a better move?

b5 is a problem because it threatens to dislodge the defender of e4. So we'd need to protect e4 with the bishop, and the queen too when he plays Bh7 and g5. Having two powerful pieces behind a weak pawn, defending it, is very passive and I would say it's probably better to just give up the pawn. 

Wait, we can actually play e5 next move.

9. Nf3 b5 10. e5

This still seems to resolve our problems. Let me take a deeper look into this before we move. Martin hasn't yet issued a time warning so we have plenty of time.

Ok so 9. Nf3 is probably met with Nbd7 as USA points out, and not b5 because we have e5 in reply, but Nbd7 is also a problem because now we don't have e5 at all, and that pawn will be a permanent weakness for us.

I think e5 is our only play here. Anything else and we're going to spend a lot of the game defending e4.