Martin vs the world analysis thread #4

Tug, traditional binds do not exist in this game, and therefore workarounds will be found when we need them.  King safety and a resolve to develop slowly and methodically seems to be the rule of the day.

Personally, speaking just from a theoretical perspective, I believe we have played a perfect game so far.  Anytime I've gone up against far better players, the hallmarks of their play have been basic opening procedure, and not trying to push too hard, too early.

So, our side has a central weakness… but we'll deal with it.  His side has weaknesses too.

As JARP pointed out, e5 carries too many unknowns and meanwhile the board is like there are six Queens on it.  Go out on a limb… and you'll hear an annoying sawing sound.

I think a few moves from now Martin will overlook something.  With our collective minds, and with the position so sharp, we'll be the one to find subtle adjusts, and they'll be very subtle.

I'll study the Nbd7 continuation this morning, and if we all keep at it, a best move continuation will eventually prove unanimous.

e5 let’s do it

I think Martin will win the pawn on e6 after 9. e5 Nfd7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Ne5 12. Bd5 Rf6. The threat is ...Rxe6 and I don't think we can defend e6 easily now. If nothing else then after 13. f4 black can play 13...Nec6 14. Qg4 (only way to defend e6 I think) 14...Bf5 and now black should win e6 on the next move.

If all else fails then after 9. e5 Nfd7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Ne5 12. Bd5 black can try to maneuver a knight to d8 (and maybe also put a rook on f6) to win the e6-pawn.

I'm sorry but I don't believe in 9. e5. After 10. e6 we're creating a permanent weakness on e6. Black has so many ways to play that don't involve playing ...Bxe6 immediately and instead just calmly putting more pressure on e6 (to try to win it). Unless we're absolutely sure that we can hold onto the pawn on e6 if he doesn't take it immediately with ...Bxe6 and win it back if he does take it immediately with ...Bxe6 then I would not not wanna play 9. e5. Vote for it if you want but I'm warning you it's risky. If you don't wanna create a permanent weak pawn (on e6) then I'd advice against playing 9. e5.

9. Qd2 is the move I'm leaning towards right now. I'm not too worried about 9...Bb4. We'll just play Bd3 to defend e4 and then 0-0-0 followed by f3 probably. The pawn on e4 is only a temporary weakness. We'll only need to waste 1 move defending it with Bd3 and once we can play f3 (after we've castled) it's no longer a weakness and we can go on with a pawn storm on the kingside if we want to. If black plays 9...Bb4 then the bishop could potentially be a bit misplaced on b4 if he wants to do a pawn storm on the queenside, since the bishop would block his b-pawn from moving forward. And ...Bxc3 will almost never be a threat if we defend e4.

After 9. Nf3 b5 10. e5 Nh7 11. 0-0 b4 12. Ne4 after black plays a move that defends c5, such as 12...Qc7, 12...Qb6 or 12...Nd7 (let's just say he plays 12...Qb6), I think we'll have to play 13. exd6 exd6 and now black is ready to play ...Re8, lining up his rook on the same file we have 2 bishops (one on e3 and one on e2). We might have to move both of our bishops so that he can't take one of our bishops with his rook. But right now we have a knight on e4.

But this line might not have been forced. I haven't looked at it much. Maybe 9. Nf3 b5 10. e5 Nh7 11. cxb5 is possible? But again I haven't looked into this.

Can we just play e5 it looks fun and we almost out of time 

What’s so wrong with sacking bishop+pawn for knight+2 checks?

Working on the Nf3, but paying attention to the "incoming." (posts )

At least we're agreeing to disagree, so I don't have to worry about a sudden move.

Candidate moves currently are:   9. Qd2   9. e5   9. Nf3

If we get to the 4 day warning from Martin, please note the time, so that we can establish a clock with him, rather than see just 8 hours ago, 10 hours ago, etc.

Btw, I haven't ruled out any of the candidate moves, and if we get to the last second, consider me falling in line with the most unanimous move. (in case I'm asleep at zero hour)

I missed 14. Bf7+ in that line. White might be completely fine after 14. Bf7+. But I bet there's a lot of improvement to be made in that line (from both sides). Black may have better moves in that line. 13. f4 was a crazy suggestion from me (a desperate attempt to hold onto the pawn on e6) and it feels like it shouldn't work for white.

I wonder if 9. e5 Nfd7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Ne5 12. f4 works for us. The idea is that after the knight moves with 12...Nec6 we have 13. Bf7+.

It feels like the e6-pawn will fall somehow after 9. e5 and 10. e6, but I might be seeing ghosts. We'll need to look into this more.

If I had to vote right now then I'd vote for 9. Qd2, but I don't think we should make a move yet. It's unclear to me what's best.

Pro2, as I'm exploring Nf3, my next move is not 0-0, but instead Qd2, so we are thinking in tandem.

There are great traps inherent in Martin's castled position because

• King can be corralled with no escape by Qh6
• Aid is far off, not counting the Bishops
• Our Rook can be brought to bear quickly, his cannot.

The bishop is probably better than the rook. We don't trade for a knight, if we did that's even worse. 

Bf7+ might be ok, but I really don't want to give up a bishop for rook in this event.

I gotta go out, will take a look at chesspro's analysis when I'm back.

I'm keeping my vote for e5. Martin is ill advised to try outcalculating us, and if he makes one misstep it's over for him.

I may have found a potential flaw with 9. e5. After 9. e5 Nh7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 instead of playing 11...Bxe6, maybe black can play 11...Ng5, attacking e6 a second time (and also defending against Bf7+). Now it's very difficult for white to defend e6. For example against 12. Qd3 black can play 12...Bf5 and now there's no 13. Qd5+, since there's still a pawn on e6.

9. e5 Nh7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Ng5 12. Bd3 can probably be met by 12...Rf6, defending g6 and attacking e6 a third time. The game might continue 13. Bxc5 Rxe6+ (13...dxc5 is met by either 14. Bf7+ or 14. Bh7+, with a discovered attack on the queen. This would not be good for black) and now material is even, but black got a free check.

After 9. e5 Nh7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Ng5 12. Bd5 if black doesn't wanna pin himself after 12...Nxe6 then he can even play 12...Rf6. After 12...Rf6 black will either be up a pawn, or after 13. Bxc5 Rxe6+ he will be up a check instead.

9. e5 Nh7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 Ng5 12. Bg4 can probably just be met by 12...Bxe6 I think.

In some lines after 9. e5 Nh7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 the rook lift Rf8-f6-e6 could be dangerous for white. The rook could "sacrifice itself" for one of the bishops on the e-file.

I'm taking a quick break now.

"9. e5. After 9. e5 Nh7 10. e6 fxe6 11. dxe6 instead of playing 11...Bxe6, maybe black can play 11...Ng5"

This is the position...

We have another weakness here... g2, which he can attack with Bc6. I guess we can refute that with Bd5 so it shouldn't be a problem. But if we play Qd5 without it coming with check, then Bc6 is very much a problem. So ideas like Qd3 Bf5 Qd5, hitting the now unprotected b7 pawn, doesn't work. 

This position might not be good for us.

Ok so after 10... fxe6, we don't need to recapture. Let's pull an image up for this...

Let's say 11. Qc2 Bf5 12. Qb3... in playing Bf5 he abandons the b7 pawn, which gives us a target. He can't allow us to grab that pawn because it comes with a tempo on the rook. So he can't really ignore this. Qc7 is met with Bb6, so too is Ra7, while Qd7 is met with dxe6.

I haven't been thorough here by any means, but I'm not yet ready to give up on e5. 

What's the alternative if we do decide e5 isn't good? Nf3 is bad, I think I'm back to Kf1.

rook and 2 checks are worth way more than bishop+pawn

^ just to add, if Qc7, then Bb6 followed by Ba4 and we're winning more than a pawn, he'd have to play Nc6 to save the queen. So that won't happen.

11... Bf5 isn't forced, of course. Does he have better?

I don't think so. We'd have to play for endgame, a pawn down, and hope the rooks dominate the bishops. 

I wish we had a move here. I've had enough of this for today but we can't just play e5 in the hope it's ok, we have to be confident it's ok.

Ok I might have a play.

9. e5 Nh7 10. Qd3 Bf5 11. Be4

We have pressure on b7 and g6, I'm not sure how he parries both the threats.