Nf2 adds a defender to the rook without us having to retreat. If he plays Bb4 (or Ba5) we're forced to block with the bishop, but that's ok because his dark bishop is a really important defender, so we should be happy to trade those off.
Nd2 looks ok to me here, or Rh1.
Nf2 also adds more attack to g4. I think that's the way forwards.
I'm just looking at Nf2 now and I'm not sure it helps all that much.
16. Nf2 Qd7 17. g4 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4
He has direct threats here, Nxf2 wins the knight or rook. Capturing doesn't help. We're going to have to move this rook.
I don't think we're ready to play g4 for a few moves. Fortunately, it's really difficult to find a plan for Martin, I think all he can do is wait for us to make our move and hope we pull the trigger too early.
We can either get our king out of the way and bring the a-rook to h1, which takes a few moves, or just retreat the h-rook to h1.
I think Rh1, because after Qd7 we probably need Rg1 to add more support to g4.
Right now I'm leaning Rh1, I'll take another look after a break.
I missed 16. g4 Qd7. But it might still be good for us. After 17. Nf2 It looks to me (at least at first glance) like black still can't take on g4. Here are some example lines:
16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 (note that this is the same line as 16. Nf2 Qd7 17. g4 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4, just different move order) 19. h5 Nxf2 20. hxg6+ Kxg6 21. Bf5+ and we win black's queen.
16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Nxf2 20. hxg6+ Kg8 21. gxf7+ Rxf7 22. Be6 Qd8 23. Qxf2 and I think white is much better. White has checked black twice and black has the weaker king.
16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Nxe3 20. hxg6+ Kxg6 (20...Kg8 should be similar to the line above with 19...Nxf2) and now it looks extremely dangerous for black. Black's king is very exposed and white has already checked once and Bf5+ is sometimes a threat. Both 21. Rg3+ and the simple 21. Qxe3 look good here.
16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Kg8 20. Nxg4 Nxg4 21. hxg6 and now it's starting to look very dangerous for black. Bh7+ is a threat and 21...fxg6 runs into 22. Be6+ and we win black's queen.
16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 gxh5 Bf5+ Kg8 20. Bxd7 wins black's queen.
So I think the position after 16. Nf2 Qd7 17. g4 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 is good for us, but I could have missed something. The moves 16. g4 and 16. Nf2 could transpose into each other if black plays 16...Qd7. Not sure which move is best. 16. g4 seems more forcing. I will need to analyze more.
16. Nf2 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bh6 might be slightly annoying for us. If we play 18. Be3 then we are just repeating positions (after 18...Bb4) and if we play 18. f4 then that makes it more difficult for us to play g4. So we might have to play something like 18. Qc2. This complicates things a bit. The bishop on h6 partially blocks the h-file, so that a future g4/h5 might not be as effective. For example 16. Nf2 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bh6 18. Qc2 Qd7 19. g4 hxg4 20. fxg4 Nexg4 21. h5 Nxf2 22. hxg6+ fxg6 (in this line black is not forced to move his king against hxg6+, because it's not a double check since there is a bishop on h6). White loses a lot of material here, but it's still a bit unclear to me because white can maybe try to play 23. Rxh6+ and try to get 5 checks (or at least 4 checks).
If black instead plays 16. Nf2 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bh6 18. Qc2 Qd7 19. g4 hxg4 20. fxg4 Nexg4 21. h5 gxh5 then 22. e5+ (discovered check) looks very interesting for white. This line looks very double edged and I have no idea who will end up better. Black's knight on f6 is hanging, but white's rook on h3 is also hanging.
But if we play 16. g4 instead of 16. Nf2 then we don't have to worry about any of this. E.g. 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bh6 can be met by 18. g5 (forking the knight on f6 and bishop on h6). The same thing applies to 16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 Bb4 18. Bc3 Bh6 19. g5.
16. Rh1 seems a bit passive to me. I would only play it if we really have to because of some tactics (e.g. if g4 doesnt work because it loses a pawn).
16. g4 is the move I'm leaning towards right now. I don't think taking a "free" pawn after 16. g4 works for black and I don't think he would play that. There are still more lines I need to look at, for example in many lines black could try to play ...Bb4 (which I don't think will make any difference, but I still need to look at it). I'm taking a quick break now, but I will be back later today.
Right now I feel more confident that 16. g4 works than that we will be able to play g4 after 16. Nf2 (the lines I've looked at after 16. Nf2 look super unclear to me). There are a few lines here and there after 16. g4 where I haven't completely figured out what we should play, but I still think it works. I might take another look at it tomorrow.
I'm at work today, I will take a look at your analysis with Qd7 in mind when I'm back home.
Here are a few lines I haven't looked at until now:
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nxe4 19. h5 Kg8 (19...g5 20. Bf5+ loses the knight on e4 for black) 20. hxg6 Nxd2 21. Bh7+ (1) 21...Kg7 22. Bh6+ (2) 22...Kf6 23. Bg5+ (3) 23...Kxg5 24. Rh5+ (4) 24...Kxg4 25. Rg5+ (5) 1-0.
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nxe4 19. h5 Kg8 20. hxg6 Nxg6 21. Bh7+ (1) 21...Kg7 22. Bh6+ (2) 22...Kxh7 23. Bf6+ (3) 23...Kg8 24. Rh8+ (4) 24...Nxh8 25. Qg5+ (5) 1-0.
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Nxe3 20. hxg6+ (1) 20...Kxg6 21. Bf5+ (2) 21...Nxf5 22. exf5+ (3) 22...Kxf5 23. Qg5+ (4) 23...Kxg5 24. Rh5+ (5) 1-0.
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Nxe3 20. hxg6+ (1) 20...Kg8 21. gxf7+ (2) 21...Rxf7 and then probably 22. Rg3+ (3) 22...Kf8 23. Qxe3 and we should be a lot better here. We have checked black three times, black has a pretty weak king and black would have to trade his bishop for our knight on c3 in order to just get one check.
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 gxh5 20. Bxg4 Nxg4 21. Rxh5+ (1) 21...Kg8 22. Rg5+ (2) and we win the knight on g4. We will be up a knight for a pawn, and we might even get 5 checks somehow.
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Kg8 20. hxg6 Nxe4 21. Bh7+ (1) 21...Kg7 22. Bh6+ (2) 22...Nxh6 23. Qxh6+ (3) 23...Kf6 24. g7+ (4) 24...Ke5 25. Qe6+ (5) 1-0.
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Kg8 20. hxg6 Nxe4 21. Bh7+ 21...Kg7 22. Bh6+ 22...Kf6 23. Qf4++
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Kg8 20. hxg6 Nxe4 21. Bh7+ (1) 21...Kg7 22. Bh6+ (2) 22...Kh8 23. g7+ (3) 23...Kxh7 24. Bh8+ (4) 24...Bh6 25. Rxh6+ (5) 1-0.
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Kg8 20. hxg6 Nxe4 21. Bh7+ (1) 21...Kh8 22. g7+ (2) 22...Kxg7 23. Bh6+ (3) 23...Kxh7 24. Bh8+ (4) 24...Bh6 25. Rxh6+ (5) 1-0.
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Kg8 20. hxg6 Nxe3 21. gxf7+ (1) 21...Rxf7 22. Rg3+ (2) 22...Kf8 23. Qxe3 looks pretty good for white. We have checked black twice already in an open position and I think our king is safer than his.
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Kg8 20. hxg6 Nxe3 21. gxf7+ (1) 21...Kxf7 22. Bg6+ (2) 22...Kxg6 23. Rh5+ (3) 23...Kxh5 24. Qh2+ (4) 24...Kg6 25. Qh5+ (5) 1-0.
16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Kg8 20. hxg6 fxg6 21. Be6+ (1) 21...Rf7 and now I'm not sure what's best for white. We can always play 22. Bxf7+ and be up an "exchange" and 2 checks. Maybe we can play 22. Qg2 Ne5 23. Qh2 and threaten Rh8+. Either way I think this position is great for white.
Chess_Pro2, I think you've about exhausted everything, and I'm liking what you see.
Vote 16. g4.
I suppose the reply Qd7 has to be studied more, but will leave that to tug. If he can't get that to work any further, than we've put more than enough analysis into g4, and it should hold up.
I've covered a lot of the lines after 16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 already (in post #482), but here are some more:
16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Nxf2 20. hxg6+ (1) 20...Kg8 21. gxf7+ (2) 21...Rxf7 (21...Kxf7 22. Be6+ wins black's queen on d7 with a fork) 22. Be6 N2xe4 23. Rh8+ (3) 23...Bxh8 (23...Kxh8 24. Qh2+ (4) 24...Kg8 25. Qh8+ (5) 1-0) 24. Qg2+ (4) 24...Kf8 25. Qg7+ (5) 1-0.
16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Nxe3 20. hxg6+ (1) 20...Kxg6 21. Bf5+ (2) (this is potentially better than 21. Rg3+ that I suggested in post #482) 21...Nxf5 22. exf5+ (3) 22...Qxf5 23. Rh6+ (4) 23...Bxh6 24. Qxh6+ (5) 1-0.
16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Nxe3 20. hxg6+ (1) 20...Kg8 21. gxf7+ (2) 21...Rxf7 and now it's slightly annoying that black is threatening to pin our queen with ...Bb4 (recall that our dark squared bishop is gone), so it might not be good to play 22. Be6 right away. However, I think 22. Qxe3 is totally fine for white. Actually this position is probably a lot better for white. If black doesn't play 22...Bb4+ (or 22...Ba5+) then I think we can probably just play 0-0-0 (or perhaps Bc6 first and then 0-0-0 if we don't wanna lose the pawn on a4) and be up 2 checks. We only need 3 more checks to win. After 22...Bb4+ 23. Kd1 then it's probably too dangerous for black to allow Qh6. And after 23...Bg7 it's pretty much over for black after 24. Be6. For example 24...Qe8 25. Rh8+ (3) 25...Kxh8 26. Qh3+ (4) 26...Kg8 27.Qh8+ (5) 1-0.
There are still some more lines after 16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 I need to look at.
Here are a few more lines after 16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2:
16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 Bb4 18. Bc3 Bxc3 19. bxc3 hxg4 20. fxg4 Nexg4 21. h5 Nxf2 22. hxg6+ (1) 22...Kg8 (22...Kxg6 23. Bf5+ wins black's queen) 23. Rh8+ (2) 23...Kxh8 (23...Kg7 24. Qh6++) 24. Qh6+ (3) 24...Kg8 (24...Nh7 25. Qxh7++) 25. Bh7+ (4) 25...Nxh7 (25...Kh8 26. g7++) 26. Qxh7++
16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Bb4 20. hxg6+ (1) 20...Kxg6 21. Bf5+ (2) 21...Kg7 (21...Qxf5 22. exf5+ Kxf5 23. Bc3 and white is up a queen for a piece and 2 pawns) 22. Bh6+ (3) 22...Nxh6 23. Rg3+ (4) 23...Kh8 24. Rg8+ (5) 1-0.
16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 Bb4 20. hxg6+ (1) 20...Kxg6 21. Bf5+ (2) 21...Kg7 22. Bh6+ (3) 22...Kg8 23. Bc3 Bxc3 24. bxc3 and it's pretty much impossible for black to prevent white from getting 2 more checks.
I will hopefully have time to look at the remaining lines tomorrow.
Right, I've been putting this off all day because I'm lazy, but it's time. I'm taking a dive into this analysis.
How the hell did it get to 9 days? Wow.
I think Martin is glad for it though.
Ok so the first problem I see is this. If we play 16. g4, he has Bb4+, and if we play 17. Nc3, now he has Qd7 and we don't have Nf2.
I don't think Bb4+ is a good idea for him though, because that bishop is an important defender. But if we intend to block Bb4+ with Nc3, then we don't have Nf2 to protect the rook.
Same here, I've been very lazy (at least up until the last few days). I didn't even make my initial analysis until like 4-5 days in I think. I've been looking at this so much the last 2 days or so that I don't feel looking at more right now. I'm taking a slight break now. But I probably look at this more later today (during the evening).
I happen to have been looking a lot more at 16. g4 than 16. Nf2, but that doesn't necessarily mean that 16. g4 is better. But 16. g4 feels more forcing than 16. Nf2 and therefore it might be easier to analyze. Against 16. Nf2 black might have many different ways of preparing for/stopping g4 that all need to be considered. Also I haven't looked enough at some of the critical lines against 16. Nf2 yet, e.g. 16. Nf2 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bh6 18. Qc2.
g4 is premature, we have a minor problem to fix first.
If we play g4, then he has Qd7, which adds another attacker to the g4 square, while pinning our pawn to the rook.
We need to retreat the rook first.