Martin vs the world analysis thread #4

Against 16. g4 Bb4 I thought we could play 17. Nc3 too at first, but then Tug pointed out in post #493 that black can play 17. Qd7 against it and now we don't have Nf2 (to protect h3/g4) and our pawn on g4 is pinned. This looks annoying for us.

I really don't know what we should play. If it wasn't for this annoying line 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. Qxc3 hxg4 19. fxg4 Nxe4 (and similar lines) I would play 16. g4 here. This is gonna sound crazy, but I think I'm gonna abandon 16. g4 (unless we can fix it) after all the analysis I've done for it.

I think 16. Nf2 is the move I'm leaning towards right now. If he plays 16...Qd7 then we play 17. g4 and transpose to a line I've already analyzed quite a bit. We don't have to worry about e4 hanging now, because we have a knight on f2. And 16. Nf2 Bb4 17. Bc3 will likely transpose to the line 16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 Bb4 18. Bc3 Bxc3 that I looked at in post #490. The point is that after 16. Nf2 we will likely be allowed to play g4 and transpose to lines I've already looked at, without having to worry about the annoying line where black plays ...Nxe4. And we are not forced to play g4. We can take it slow and prepare if we find out it doesn't work.

In post #483 I did say that I didn't really like 16. Nf2 because the lines after 16. Nf2 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bh6 18. Qc2 Qd7 20. g4 looked really unclear. But even if those lines don't work for us (which I'm not sure about because I didn't look at them enough), we are not forced to play 20. g4 (we can prepare it first if necessary). So I think 16. Nf2 is completely fine for us.

I think the other moves I would consider here (besides 16. Nf2 and 16. g4) are 16. Rh1 (as Tug suggested) and 16. Bc3 (it was Tug who originally suggested that the knight on c3 and bishop on e3 should swap positions in post #422, so I can't say I came up with this move).

I'm not ready to vote yet, but I don't think I ever will be. It almost feels like we're cheating when we're taking way more than 7 days to come up with a move (we're 9 days in). We should probably move soon. But I think I at least want to hear Tug's opinion before I officially cast my vote. I will be busy for most of the day tomorrow, but I will have a little bit of time during the evening tomorrow. I'll make a "pseudo vote" for 16. Nf2 now. In case we have to make a move and I'm not there, then consider 16. Nf2 my vote. It doesn't make sense for me to make a real vote for 16. Nf2 before anyone has given their opinion about this move and nobody else has voted for it, especially when most of the analysis (or at least my analysis) has been about 16. g4 and I'm suddenly abandoning that move and choosing a different move we haven't really looked at.

That's fine, then. I'll continue looking at 16.g4

What luck! We seem to be doing fine after 16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 Qd7 18. Bc1. 18... hxg4 fails to 19. Qh6+ Kg8 20. Bh8, while after 18... Bg7 we have 19. Qf4.

"I really don't know what we should play. If it wasn't for this annoying line 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. Qxc3 hxg4 19. fxg4 Nxe4 (and similar lines) I would play 16. g4 here. This is gonna sound crazy, but I think I'm gonna abandon 16. g4 (unless we can fix it) after all the analysis I've done for it."

This is the position after this line...

I've looked at this position during my analysis yesterday. I think Qe3 is fine for us as it hits the knight, giving us time to play h5. In fact, g5 might be better because after Qe3, he probably has to play Nf6 (f5 looks dubious). So we can hit his knight again before opening up the h-file, and by doing this we stop him from playing g5. Once we open up the h-file he's in big trouble.

I think this position is fine for us.

Qc2 or Qd3 might be even better than Qe3. It already places our queen on a diagonal that we can prise open. Qe3 eyes h6 though.

"We don't have to worry about e4 hanging now, because we have a knight on f2."

Let's not forget the knight is overworked. It's also protecting the rook. If Nxe4, our f2 knight can't recapture because the rook hangs.

Where do we stand, now?  What are the contender moves for the current move?

I think g4, Nf2 and Rh1 are all sound moves. In each case, he can play Rh8, so it's not like playing a passive move is giving him time to improve his defence. He can improve it regardless. 

I don't think he plays hxg4, I think it's crazy for him to allow the h-file to open up.

Rh1 is my least favourite right now. I don't mind making passive moves, but Nf2 does the same job while also improving our attack. 

I think right now I'm leaning Nf2. 

g4 is happening, but it's not really forcing anything, so there's no hurry. 

Rh1 doesn't do anything except stop Qd7 causing problems.

I would like to move within 12 hours now, I'll be going to bed around that time. 

Ok, I'll give the Nf2 move a look.

Suppose to snow here all day, starting soon, I have done all preparations, so I have time for chess.  Thanks.

I actually don't hate a king walk to h1 either, starting with Kf1 now. That gives us the option of rejecting a bishop trade after Bb4, while getting our king safely out of the way.

I didn't notice before but Rh1 isn't great as it gives him a freebie with Bg3+, which is also super annoying as it blocks our g-pawn.

That looks very interesting! If black plays 18...hxg4 then I agree that we win. After 16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 Qd7 18. Bc1 Bg7 19. Qf4 I agree that we're probably fine (but I'm not certain about this; I haven't looked at all the lines), but that's not super obvious. Black is attacking our g4-pawn 4 times and we're only protecting it twice, so we're gonna have to sacrifice it. After 19...hxg4 20. fxg4 Nexg4 21. h5 Kg8 22. hxg6 we have won back the pawn and 22...fxg6 is impossible because of 23. Be6+ (winning black's queen). We are also threatening Bf5 to win the knight on g4.

But perhaps black doesn't have to play 19...hxg4? Our g4-pawn is still pinned after all, so we can't play 20. gxh5 if black just plays a calm move like 19...Kg8.

Also against 16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 Qd7 18. Bc1 we have to consider both 18...Kg8 and 18...Ng8.

Against 16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 Qd7 18. Bc1 Kg8 our g4-pawn is attacked 4 times and only protected twice and it's also still pinned. 19. Qh6 seems to almost work here. We are threatening Bh8 as before. E.g.19...hxg4 20. Bh8 Nh5 21. Bh7+ Kxh8 22. Be6+ and we either get 5 checks, or if 3-fold repetition happens before that then we can always just win his queen.

But the problem is that after 16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 Qd7 18. Bc1 Kg8 19. Qh6 black can just play 19...Bg7 instead. So I don't think 19. Qh6 works. I don't know what we should play against 18...Kg8 and 18...Ng8.

This looks interesting for sure but I'm not 100% convinced right now that this is good for white.

The critical move after 16. g4 is (in my opinion at least) is 16...Bb4. Now if we play 17. Nc3 then 17...Qd7 is the critical move (since we can't play 18. Nf2).

If after 16. g4 Bb4 we play 17. Bc3 then the critical line is 17...Bxc3 18. Qxc3 (or 18. bxc3) 18...hxg4 19. fxg4 Nxe4.

If we can agree that at least one of these 2 (or 3 because we can choose between 18. Qxc3 and 18. bxc3) lines are good for white, then I'm willing to play 16. g4. But right now it's a bit unclear to me if either of them are good for white. I think I'm still leaning towards 16. Nf2 right now. Of course we should try to play g4 later even if we don't play it immediately.

Can you give me an exact position where this is a problem? Because I don't see the knight being overworked or ...Nxe4 being a problem for us after 16. Nf2 Qd7 17. g4.

After 16. Nf2 Qd7 17, g4, the pawn on e4 is protected by the pawn on f3, so 17...Nxe4 is impossible.

After 16. Nf2 Qd7 17. g4 hxg4 18. fxg4 the move 18...Nxe4 is impossible because of 19. Nxe4 and our rook on h3 is not hanging because we have a pawn on g4.

After 16. Nf2 Qd7 17. g4 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 we transpose to a line I've already looked at in e.g. #489. 19...Nxf2 loses to 20. hxg6+ and 19...Nxe4 just blunders a knight. We simply recapture it with 20. Nxe4 (or maybe 20. hxg6+ wins here) and our rook on h3 is not hanging because black has a knight on g4. He doesn't have any good discovered attacks either with his knight on g4.

I can't find an exact position where it's an immediate problem, largely because I think it's such a mistake for him to play hxg4.

But if we play suboptimally, let's say 16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 Kg8 18 gxh5 he now has 18... Nxe4, the f2 knight is now overworked. 

I think I saw an issue in some of my analysis earlier, but this was after hxg4, and I think hxg4 is just losing for him, so I think it requires us to make poor moves for a knight on f2 to actually be overworked. But with that said, it is something we need to be aware of.

@patzer

"What luck! We seem to be doing fine after 16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 Qd7 18. Bc1. 18... hxg4 fails to 19. Qh6+ Kg8 20. Bh8, while after 18... Bg7 we have 19. Qf4."

After 20. Bh8, he has Ne8. But 20. Bg7 does win on the spot.

I'm not seeing what 19. Qf4 does though?

I don't even see the f2 knight being overworked in that position. Am I missing something? 16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 Kg8 18. gxh5 Nxe4 19. fxe4 (we still have a pawn on f3 if he doesn't take on g4).

But yeah I agree the knight could get overworked in some positions and we have to be aware of that. For example 16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Kg8 19. h5 gxh5 20. gxh5 Nxe4 21. Nxe4 Qxh3.

The lines in the above diagram happen to have started with 16. g4 (because that's the move order Tug used in the post I'm replying to), but they could just as easliy have been reached via the move order 16. Nf2 Qd7 17. g4.

We have many ways to try to avoid those bad lines, For example after 16. Nf2 Qd7 17. g4 hxg4 18. fxg4 Kg8 we don't have to play 19. h5. We could play it safe and play 19. Rg3 instead.

Also 16. Nf2 Qd7 17. g4 hxg4 18. Nxg4 is an option I haven't explored. This does however sacrifice a pawn in a position I haven't looked at (I have no idea if 18. Nxg4 is good or not).

Also after 16. Nf2 Qd7 if we're really afraid then we don't even have to play 17. g4.

But if we play 16. g4 Qd7 then we have already committed to g4 and we pretty have to play 17. Nf2. That's one reason why I like 16. Nf2 more than 16. g4. The move 16. Nf2 is less committal than 16. g4.

You're right, I forgot we still had f3. I've been trying to do tons today including analysing this, it's been difficult to manage so that was an error on my part. I'm just sure that in some lines I have noticed the problem and am constantly reminding myself to be aware of it. 

I think we would have to make a bad move in order for it to be a problem.

I think it's time to make our move, are we going with Nf2?

Rh1 is no good, we can't give him Bg3+

g4 is probably ok but we surely have to play Nf2 as well, so it's probably better to play that first.

I'm quite happy if he forces a bishop trade on c3, so I don't feel like we need Nc3. I also think it would be a mistake for him to attack with his bishop instead of defend. So Bb4 is not really something I'm worried about.

Nf2 for me.