Martin vs the world analysis thread #4

I understand that logic entirely. 

We can't play e5 really unless we know at least one of the events, so if we're not playing Nf3 and keeping things book, then starting an event is probably the next best option.

After Nf3 d6 we basically transpose into the KID and nothing unusual happened except move order. Sample size gets huge again in the db 41-31 to white from 33k games.

I agree with Tug. In the last game we made the mistake of starting an event first, and losing our chance to equalize. Here we have a slight edge, so we should just play calmly and develop.

But we have a chance to get a big advantage if the event favors pawns

I don't think there are a lot of events that will favour us if we do play e5, and the ones that do aren't likely to be triggered. Starting an event is something like playing a trump card.

I vote for Nf3. Let Martin start his event first.

Also, Ry. It's your turn in our game. I don't want a move 1 forfeit.

wait i didnt know sorry

I'm not against the idea of starting an event here. I know I said much earlier in the game that I think it's probably best to castle before starting an event. But I may or may not have been right about that and I definitely don't think we should treat that as a hard rule.

Last game against Martin we lost when starting an event before castling, but that may have just been extremely bad luck, and also our king was a lot more exposed that game than this game. We had no d-pawn and our e-pawn was on e5 (and our king on e8) when the second event was started in that game (which is why 8. Qab3.5+ was so strong).

This game I think our king will be relatively safe in the centre until we castle. There are no open (or even semi-open) files and the a5-e1 diagonal is blocked by our knight on c3. Also black's queen can't be developed in a single move (since e.g. black's c-pawn has not been moved yet). So I don't think we need to be as worried about Martin getting a crazy powerful queen and winning in 1 move after the second event is started this game.

Also Martin has already committed to an opening, so in that sense it's not too early to start an event. The question is if our king will be safe enough if we start an event now (before castling) and I think the answer is yes.

I agree with ry that e5 could be very strong with the right event.

I agree with tug that 5. e5 is not necessarily that great even in regular chess. But if we start an event we will only play 5. e5 it's a good move because of the event. Most likely we will not play 5. e5 after starting an event. But I think it's worth starting an event for the somewhat small chance of 5. e5 being good for us. If it isn't then we didn't really lose anything and we'll just play 5. Nf3 or something.

It might be true that starting an event slightly favours the person who started the event second. But I think this is mostly just true when one player has a better position than the other. For example if you have a worse position than your opponent (or even a losing position), then it's better if you have the option of starting an event rather than your opponent, since the event might save your position. If your position is worse and your opponent can start an event but not you, then he could just wait until the last moment to start an event (and e.g. get an even bigger advantage in the meantime).

If the position is equal and 1 player has started an event then I don't think it matters who still has the option of starting an event. I guess maybe it still slightly favours the person who has the option of starting an event, because of the potential of you getting an advantage/disadvantage and then having the option of starting and event would be a slight advantage.

So I think being the last player to start an event is only a very slight advantage on average, but for positions that are not equal it's a bigger advantage.

If neither player has started an event and your position is bad or even losing, then I think starting an event is a good idea (because of the chance of getting back into the game).

If neither player has started an event and you have a much better position then I think delaying starting an event is best (and starting to convert the position first).

If neither player has started an event and the position is equal-ish on the board then I think it matters very little who starts the event first in most positions, (but with one exception being if it's clear that starting an event is a lot more likely than not to give you an advantage; in this case you should start an event). If neither player has started an event in a position that is equal-ish on the board and the resulting position after starting an event is expected to be equal as well on average, then I think the player who starts an event last has a very slight (but probably insignificant) advantage on average, because of the potential of the position becoming unequal and then being the last player to start an event would be an advantage.

In this case I think starting an event is worth it, because of chance of 5. e5 being good after we start an event. But I also don't know if there are that many events that would make 5. e5 good. Still I think the potential of 5. e5 being good after we start an event probably outweighs the slight (and probably insignificant) advantage of not being the first player to start an event in an equal position.

Starting an event is the move I'm leaning towards right now (with 5. Nf3 being my secondary move). But I'll wait for a moment until I vote.

I agree start event and Nf3 if not 

So I did some research, and by my 30-second evaluations of the current events and our position, there are 23 events here that favor us, 6 that would favor Martin, and the rest are all neutral. By neutral, I mean either it doesn't change the game, there's a tiny advantage for one side but we can't really use it, or it's really complex and it would take a really long time to figure out who is better. 

Those statistics are looking good for us, especially considering that about 10 events had an advantage for us that we wouldn't be able to use now, but might be useful later. I say we start an event, and get as much information on the board as we can.

I vote event, to help things along with… something.

Soo

play g4 or h4 i love both lines

Im looking at this further and I have a question

WHY in the HECK is 5. h4 not played in regular chess more -_____-(against 4.. O-O more as it's less effective against 4... d6)

I say we play it safe here, castle kingside, develop our pieces, and only then go in for an attack. I'm worried that if we play it like a Saemisch (e.g. f3, h4, g4, etc) then Martin will open the center and check us to death.

This event puts us at a bit of a disadvantage, as Martin is castled and we are not. I suggest Be2 here.

I understand your point, but 5. h4 honestly looks extremely strong